UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres last week became the first UN chief to visit Cyprus in 16 years.
While there, he met the leaders of the island’s two communities: Nikos Christodoulides, president of the Republic of Cyprus, and Tufan Erhurman, Turkish Cypriot leader and president of the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which is only recognized by Turkey.
His aim in doing so was to determine whether the conditions exist for restarting negotiations on the Cyprus issue.
Progress on talks has remained stalled since the collapse of negotiations in Crans-Montana, Switzerland, in 2017, when the United Nations made its most comprehensive effort to broker a reunification agreement for the island.
Why now?
So, why has Antonio Guterres decided to launch a new initiative now?
According to diplomatic sources, the answer lies less in developments surrounding the Cyprus issue itself and more in the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape of the wider region.
War in the Middle East, deteriorating relations between Israel and Turkey, and growing strategic competition in the Eastern Mediterranean have heightened UN concerns that the unresolved Cyprus conflict could undermine the stability of the entire region.
Guterres said as much after the joint meeting on July 29. “I do believe that a solution in Cyprus is absolutely crucial, not only to preserve the interests and the peace of the Cyprus people, but also as a factor of stability in what is becoming a dangerously unstable region,” he said.
Speaking to DW, Andreas Mavroyiannis, former permanent representative of the Republic of Cyprus to the United Nations and former chief negotiator of the Greek Cypriot side, shared the same concern.
“The strengthening of relations between the Republic of Cyprus and Israel, combined with the deterioration of Israel–Turkey relations, increases the risk of the Cyprus issue being instrumentalized,” he told DW.
According to Mavroyiannis, the UN secretary-general fears that Cyprus could, instead of serving as a pillar of stability in the Middle East, become increasingly entangled in regional rivalries and emerge as one of the area’s most vulnerable flashpoints.
The European dimension
The UN is not alone in viewing the Cyprus issue through the prism of regional security. The EU has also shown increasing interest in playing a more active political role in efforts to revive the peace process.
A significant step came on July 7, when the European Commission appointed Executive Vice-President Raffaele Fitto as the EU’s Special Representative for the Cyprus issue.
His mandate is to support the UN-led process and strengthen the bloc’s involvement in efforts to restart negotiations.
A more active role for the EU has long been one of President Nikos Christodoulides‘ key policy objectives.
During Cyprus’ recent presidency of the Council of the European Union, he reminded fellow European leaders that he was “the president of the only EU member state that remains under illegal military occupation.”
The Cypriot government believes that the EU agenda could provide Ankara with incentives to contribute constructively to progress on the Cyprus issue.
Among the issues viewed as potential leverage are the modernization of the EU–Turkey Customs Union, visa liberalization for Turkish citizens, Turkey’s participation in the EU’s SAFE defense financing instrument and the prospect of gradually reviving its long-frozen EU accession process.
The next step
While Guterres’ decision to announce a new informal expanded 5+1 meeting involving the two Cypriot communities, the three guarantor powers (Greece, Turkey and the UK) plus the UN was widely seen as a positive signal, he deliberately stopped short of setting a date.
Instead, he made it clear that the meeting would only be convened once sufficient progress had been made on confidence-building measures, methodology and the substance of the process.
So, it was no coincidence that he stressed upon arriving in Cyprus that “it depends obviously on the Cypriots themselves,” underlining that responsibility for moving the process forward rests primarily with the two communities.
His remarks are directly linked to the lack of tangible progress on confidence-building measures.
Despite months of discussions, the two sides failed to reach agreement even on the opening of new crossing points — a step which, according to the UN Secretary-General, could have “a tangible impact on the daily lives of Cypriots,” while helping to restore a minimum level of trust ahead of the next phase of negotiations.
Ankara’s position remains crucial
The key question, however, extends beyond the two communities themselves and concerns Turkey’s willingness to engage.
The real test for the UN is whether Ankara is prepared to return to negotiations conducted within the framework of the UN Security Council resolutions and the agreed basis of a bicommunal, bizonal federation, moving away from the two-state solution it has advocated since the collapse of the Crans-Montana talks in 2017.
So far, Turkey has made no public statement indicating such a shift. The only possible indication comes indirectly from Antonio Guterres’ remark that he has “the consent of both sides and the guarantor powers to move towards another 5+1 meeting, provided there is adequate preparation.”
The wording suggests that, at least procedurally, Ankara is willing to participate in another informal conference under UN auspices. Whether this also signals a substantive change in Turkey’s long-standing position remains, for now, an open question.
Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan
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