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- Diesel prices in California have risen about 30 cents per gallon over the past month and $1.89 a gallon compared to the same period last year.
- Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries and the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz have dislocated global diesel supplies.
- Refiners are booking big profits as the margin to turn crude into diesel has surged to $100 per barrel.
- Diesel fuels the economy and higher prices will be felt by consumers.
watch nowVIDEO03:12Rapidan Energy’s Bob McNally explains why diesel is the key macro fuel to watchSquawk on the Street
Diesel prices in California hit $7 per gallon again Wednesday as the wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East knock out refineries, triggering a fuel supply crunch around the world.
Truckers in the Golden State are shelling out about 30 cents more per gallon than they paid a month ago, according to data from AAA. Prices have surged about 37%, or $1.89 per gallon, compared to the same period last year.
Diesel in California hit a record of $7.75 per gallon in April as Iran choked tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. It fell below $6.50 in July after as exports through Hormuz picked up in the wake of the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran.
But prices are rising again just as farmers prepare for the harvest and freight transportation picks up ahead of the holiday shopping season. Diesel averaged $5.50 a gallon across the U.S. on Wednesday, an increase of about 40 cents over the past month and $1.81 higher compared to the same period in 2025.
Consumers see rising diesel prices in their grocery and other shopping bills. “That’s a pretty significant inflationary concern,” Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Monday.
Diesel is the most important fuel for the global economy, said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy. It is used “in transportation, it’s in heating fuel, it’s in agriculture, it’s in industrial uses,” McNally told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Monday. “It is the important macro fuel to watch,” he said.
The refiners, meanwhile, are booking huge profits as the margin to turn crude into diesel has surged to $100 per barrel. That is higher than the price of U.S. crude oil which is trading around $85.
Diesel prices are higher in California than the rest of the continental U.S. in part because the state is more reliant on costly crude oil imports, Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said. It also requires a special diesel formulation. Environmental regulations and state excise and sales taxes also add to fuel costs in California.
Supply outages
Diesel prices are rising as the wars in the Ukraine and Iran wars have disrupted about 8% of the supply needed to meet 28 million barrels per day of global demand, Lipow said.
Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries have forced Moscow to ban diesel exports of around 800,000 bpd, Lipow added.
The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has affected about 1.2 million bpd of Middle East diesel exports, the analyst said. Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen recently attacked Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea refinery in Jizan, shutting the facility and its 200,000 bpd of capacity at least until the end of August, he said.
watch nowVIDEO02:32How high diesel prices are creating a hidden tax for consumersMarkets and Politics Digital Original Video
Refiners in China are processing less crude and exporting less fuel, Lipow said. S&P Global estimates about 6 million bpd of global refining capacity is offline, said Dan Yergin, the firm’s vice chairman, in a July 31 interview with CNBC.
“That’s affecting the whole economy,” Yergin said.
Prices are unlikely to ease until damaged refineries come back online in Russia and more exports are coming out of the Middle East, Book said. But sanctions will make it difficult for Moscow to source materials to repair its refineries, the analyst said. “That prolongs outages,” he said.
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