The El Nino weather phenomenon is set to intensify and will almost certainly last until February next year, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in an update Thursday.
The UN weather agency warned El Nino would develop into a “very strong” event in the coming months, heightening the risks of extreme heat, drought and flooding while threatening livelihoods and economies.
“El Nino is being supersized before our eyes,” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said in a statement. “The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up.”
WMO head Celeste Saulo told a press conference in Geneva that, on the current trajectory, the El Nino, “may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began, so literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades.”
What is El Nino?
El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon that happens every two to seven years and is not caused by climate change. But scientists say it can worsen the impacts of global heating caused by the continued burning of fossil fuels.
The WMO classifies El Nino events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, with the current El Nino set to reach the highest intensity level on that scale.
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The phenomenon begins with the warming of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, triggering changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns around the world.
For example, it often brings dry conditions and drought to Australia, Indonesia and parts of the Amazon, while East Africa and the southern US may experience heavy rainfall.
El Ninos typically begin between March and June, peaking toward the end of the year and lasting around nine to 12 months.
Ocean temperatures already ‘exceptionally’ high
WMO head Saulo said there was “an exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100% that El Nino will persist through to February 2027,” adding that it was the first time the organization had “expressed such a degree of certainty. “
Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific region , which drive El Nino and reshape weather and climate patterns thousands of kilometers away, are already well above average and continuing to rise, according to the UN agency.
“Subsurface ocean temps are also exceptionally high and in some areas more than 8 degrees Celsius above normal during July and early August,” Saulo said.
While El Nino is expected to peak toward the end of the year, its knock-on effects will likely last well into 2027, she added.
Global average temperatures are often particularly high the year after an El Nino. For example, the 2023-2024 El Nino contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record.
“We should not be surprised if this record is broken,” Saulo said.
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‘We have no time to lose’
Saulo said droughts, floods and extreme heat were already causing disruption and devastation, and warned these impacts would “multiply and cascade as El Nino intensifies.”
Saulo stressed that the weather phenomenon would “deliver a major blow to communities, economies and supply chains across the globe” and called for preparations to safeguard climate-sensitive sectors.
“We have no time to lose,” she said.
Edited by: Louis Oelofse
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