A “supersized” El Niño weather pattern could bring widespread drought, flooding, and crop loss. Parts of the world are already feeling the impact.
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The naturally occurring El Niño weather pattern, which returns every two to seven years, is characterized by unusually warm water off the west coast of the Americas. This can reshape major changes in the world’s weather — drought and extreme heat in some areas, stronger storms and flooding in others. Climate change can significantly amplify the effects of El Niño.
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El Niño tends to amplify the effects of heat waves in many parts of the world. Europeans already suffered several record heat waves this summer, which scorched forests and dried up major rivers, including the Rhine (seen here) and the Danube, both key shipping waterways. Forecasters in Europe are expecting the warmer conditions due to El Niño to last through spring 2027.
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Scientists are worried a strong El Niño will devastate flora and fauna on Ecuador’s ecologically sensitive Galapagos Islands. Warmer Pacific waters kill off plankton, algae, and small fish — a vital food source for endangered birds and penguins. Intense rainfall can boost invasive species and wash away tortoise eggs, leaving fewer hatchlings.
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In some parts of the world, El Niño can trigger erratic changes in precipitation and wind. That can result in catastrophic storms and major flooding, including on the US west coast. In Carlsbad, California, large parts of the beach, already at risk from erosion, were washed away this summer by larger than usual waves, some reaching as high as 6 feet (nearly 2 meters).
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For large swaths of Africa, El Niño means drier weather. In the Sahel, a lack of rain could push 7.4 million more people into acute food insecurity, according to the UN. Local farmers rely on support programs to buy livestock feed and rainwater catchment systems to help their animals survive. Prolonged dry spells have already hit Kenya (above), but heavy rainfall and flooding is also expected.
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In Sri Lanka, tens of thousands already need emergency water supplies, and another severe drought is expected in early 2027. At Yala National Park, visitors have temporarily been banned from entry — to give animals easy access to water after months without rain — and ponds are regularly topped up with daily deliveries. “We have to put the animals first,” ranger Sujeewa Nishantha told Reuters.
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Central America’s “dry corridor,” spanning parts of Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua, is also prone to extremely dry weather during an El Niño weather pattern. A recent Oxfam report found that subsistence farmers in the region have already lost more than 75% of their corn and bean harvests, both food staples. The prolonged drought has prompted people in Guatemala to pray for rain.
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Large parts of Southeast Asia are also seeing drier-than-normal conditions, sparking wildfires, record temperatures, and a struggle for dwindling water in places like Indonesia (above). “Climate change makes every El Niño hotter, and until we stop burning coal, oil, and gas these record-shattering months will simply keep on coming,” climate scientist Friederike Otto told reporters this week.
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In Chile’s Atacama Desert, meanwhile, the boost in rain brought on by El Niño has given rise to a vibrant flowering carpet. The average annual rainfall here is 15 mm — five times less than the Sahara Desert. But every five to seven years, corresponding with the typical El Niño cycle, the usually arid region is doused with rain, bringing more than 200 types of dormant flowers to life.
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