India news: El Nino heat could kill 15,800 by February, report warns

A new Climate Impact Lab report warned that the El Nino heat will be most dangerous in places that are already hot and relatively poor. Meanwhile, Canada says PM Modi just confirmed a trip to the nation. Follow live.

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File image: Heatwave In Kolkata A mother is seen holding an umbrella over her child inside a hand pulled rickshaw to escape from heat wave , as seen in Kolkata , India , on 3 July 2023
Outdoor workers, children and the elderly are particularly vulnerable to heat-related illnessesImage: Debarchan Chatterjee/NurPhoto/IMAGO

Skip next section What you need to know

What you need to know

  • El Nino-driven heat could cause nearly 16,000 deaths in India by February, a new Climate Impact Lab report says
  • Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit Canada in December, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says

Here are the biggest headlines from India on Wednesday, September 23: 

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Skip next section PM Modi expected to visit Canada around December: Mark Carney09/23/2026September 23, 2026

PM Modi expected to visit Canada around December: Mark Carney

Mahima Kapoor

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney greets Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the G7 summit in Canada, in 2025
Both India and Canada have one very strong reason to repair old ties and forge new trade ones: the USImage: dpa

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit Canada in December 2026, around the G20 meet in United States, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told reporters in New York on Tuesday. 

Carney’s remark was in response to a question about Modi’s pending visit and how close Ottawa was to concluding a free trade agreement with Delhi. 

“We are making good progress in our trade negotiations with India. It is an exceptionally important relationship on many, many levels, people-to-people levels, security levels, and also trade and economic,” he said, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

Carney said Modi had, at last year’s G20 meet, committed to concluding a trade deal with Canada within the year.

“I believe that India just confirmed that the prime minister will be visiting Canada around that time. The precise date isn’t out, but I very much look forward to hosting him,” the Canadian leader said after pointing out that Modi would already be in the US for G20 in December.

New Delhi has not yet publicly confirmed the trip.

Modi last visited Canada to attend the G7 summit in June 2025.

New Delhi and Ottawa have been rebuilding frayed diplomatic ties since Carney took over from former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. In 2023, India-Canada relations hit the pit over sharp disagreements onSikh separatism, resulting in the expulsion of diplomats and escalating claims.

With Modi’s 2025 trip to Canada, both countries began repairing ties, this time focusing on trade. And both countries have at least one mammoth reason to — diversifying away from their reliance on a volatile United States.

Editing:Sean Sinicohttps://p.dw.com/p/5N5FeSkip next section El Nino-driven heat could kill thousands in India by February: report09/23/2026September 23, 2026

El Nino-driven heat could kill thousands in India by February: report

Mahima Kapoor

This year’s powerful El Nino phenomenon, which is driving global heat to record levels and contributing to severe droughts, wildfires and water shortages, is likely to cause 15,800 deaths in India by the end of February, according to a research report released on Wednesday. 

The warning, released by the University of Chicago-based Climate Impact Lab, said as many as 451,000 more deaths between June and February of next year could be attributed to El Nino, when compared to typical heat-related deaths in a year. 

El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years, toward the end of the year. It comes in various strengths — depending on the prevailing conditions.

El Nino patterns are considered strong if the surface temperature of the water off the west coast of South America is over 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above average. In July this year, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) was already observing temperature increases ofgreater than 3 degrees Celsius in the eastern and central Pacific.

The Climate Impact Lab report said the powerful heat this year was most dangerous in places that are already hot and relatively poor. It projected that the Global South will see more heat-related deaths. 

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What could help prevent deaths? 

Heat warnings, hydration outreach, cooling centers and a plan to cope with the heat are all ways governments can help protect people, the report said, adding that they should also expand hospital capacity and chalk out anticipatory financing.

Commuters rest at a roadside cooling station set up by the government to provide relief for people from the intense summer heat in New Delhi, India
New Delhi had several cooling stations across the city in the summer of 2026. However, not all cities and towns have the same resourcesImage: Manish Swarup/AP Photo/picture alliance

Abhiyant Tiwari, a heat expert at NRDC India who was not involved in the study, said the report’s projections should serve as a call to action rather than be another reason for alarm.

But while it’s one thing to have well thought-out plans — as India does — implementing these plans remains a challenge, he said.

“The real measure of our preparedness is not how many heat warnings we issue, but how effectively we protect people and reduce preventable deaths,” Tiwari said.

Editing:Sean Sinicohttps://p.dw.com/p/5N58uSkip next section Welcome to our coverage! 09/23/2026September 23, 2026

Welcome to our coverage!

Mahima Kapoor with AP, AFP and Reuters

Hello! and welcome to DW’s India new blog.

This is Mahima Kapoor reporting from the national capital, where the mood is somber, even often angry, over the recent incidents of alleged rape against minors and women. 

A minor was reportedly gang-raped near a temple in southeast Delhi on Monday evening and the authorities have arrested at least one of the three accused. Today, a renowned women’s college in the vicinity said it would switch to online classes to keep students safe.

Continuing on the somber front, a new report by the Climate Impact Lab said that El Nino-driven heat could kill over 450,000 people across the world by the end of February and that nearly 16,000 of those are projected to be from India. 

Meanwhile, a controversy is brewing in the Election Commission of India. A report by the Indian Express said two of the three members of the Election Commission have, several times now, raised questions internally about the controversial revision of electoral rolls across India that struck 13 crore voter names from the list so far. 

On the international front, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney revealed that New Delhi has confirmed a visit from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in December.

And India’s foreign minister is currently in New York for the United Nations General Assembly, advocating for the Global South.

Stay tuned for all of this and more. 

Editing:Sean Sinicohttps://p.dw.com/p/5N51JShow more posts

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