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- Since Wednesday, chances of a merger happening before March jumped on Friday to 56% from 29% on Kalshi. Odds for an integration before April and May rose to similar levels.
- Most recently, Tesla showed off its long-delayed next-generation Roadster this week, which relies on SpaceX technology to make the vehicle hover.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk during a state dinner in the East Room of the White House in Washington, Sept. 24, 2026.Annabelle Gordon | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Following a Barclays note Wednesday that outlined what a merger between Tesla and SpaceX could look like, prediction market traders increased the odds of an integration above 50% for early 2027.
Since Wednesday, odds of a merger happening before March jumped to 56% by Friday morning, up from 29%. Odds for an integration before April and May climbed to similar levels.
The contract asks, “When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?” and will be verified by news outlets and the Securities and Exchange Commission’s EDGAR database.
Tesla, known for its electric vehicles, and SpaceX, a rocket and satellite company, have collaborated before. Both are controlled by Elon Musk.
On Thursday, Tesla showed off its long-delayed Roadster, which relies on SpaceX technology to make the vehicle hover. A video showcasing the Roadster’s capabilities was also recorded from SpaceX’s test site in Texas.
Beyond collaboration, the growing speculation of a merger comes after Musk spoke of “more and more overlap” between Tesla and SpaceX on EV maker’s latest earnings call.
Barclays now expects a merger could be announced before Tesla’s annual general meeting, which must take place no later than Dec. 6, 2026. Analyst Dan Levy expects the merger may be proposed as an AI vertical integration, involving Tesla’s Robotaxi and Optimus with SpaceX’s Grok and Macrohard.
Terafab, the semiconductor project relying on Tesla, SpaceX and xAI, could also be a “key driver” for the merger, Levy added.
“Notably, while we suspect there would be some financial synergies, the true value would be in vertical integration,” said Levy.
Earlier Friday, Evercore ISI recommended buying SpaceX shares ahead of its next scheduled earnings release, set for early November, and boosted its 12-month price target on the stock by 20% to $275.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
