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- Kalshi called it a minor issue in how the contracts were filed and said it is working with the CFTC to address the matter.
- Prediction market platforms are allowed to self-certify event contracts without the federal agency’s approval, as long as they comply with the Commodity Exchange Act.
A Kalshi billboard displaying US Congress midterm election odds in New York, US, on Monday, Nov. 2, 2026. Angelina Katsanis | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating if prediction market platform Kalshi failed to properly inform the agency of proposed event contracts, Kalshi confirmed to CNBC.
Kalshi called it a minor issue in how the contracts were filed and said it is working with the CFTC to address the matter. The CFTC flagged weather-related contracts, Kalshi said. The leading prediction market platform didn’t say when the agency began investigating Kalshi. The CFTC didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Politico first reported on the probe on Tuesday, noting charges could happen soon, based on the CFTC’s private notification to Kalshi. The platform declined to comment on any possible charges.
Prediction market platforms are allowed to self-certify event contracts without the federal agency’s prior approval, as long as they comply with the Commodity Exchange Act. The self-regulation allows for faster introduction of new contracts.
‘Procedural error’
“The notice is about a procedural error involving the submission of a handful of contracts, many of which weren’t live,” said Elisabeth Diana, head of communications at Kalshi. “We are already addressing the issue.”
The move is the latest by the CFTC as it seeks to rein in prediction markets, which face growing scrutiny in Washington D.C. from regulators and members of Congress.
In August, the CFTC ordered Kalshi to take down sports-related “mention markets” — where speculators can trade on what individuals will say in a broadcast or speech — while it looked into the event contract type.
The agency is also conducting a broad probe into competitor Polymarket, which includes reviewing if the company violated a 2022 settlement with the CFTC to prohibit U.S. traders from accessing its international trading platform. Polymarket’s domestic exchange operates separately from the global platform.
Prediction markets are also expected to face heightened scrutiny once the Democratic Congress is sworn into office in January. Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., in a Tuesday social media post on X, called for a ban on sports prediction markets — which account for the overwhelming majority of volume on leading platforms.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
