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LivestreamMenuKevin Warsh, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, during a House Financial Services Committee hearing in Washington, DC, US, on Tuesday, July 14, 2026.Daniel Heuer | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The Federal Reserve is set to release its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday, with a whiff of dissension and drama in the air as policymakers plot their future course.
Though markets largely expect the Federal Open Market Committee to stay on hold, recent talk from several officials indicate there’s a sizeable constituency to at least consider a hike.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan was most specific, saying she thinks rates should be “modestly” higher, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis and Governor Christopher Waller all have made statements supportive of tighter policy should inflation persist.
That could mean at least a few dissents at this meeting and a narrower line for Chairman Kevin Warsh to walk when he hosts the post-meeting news conference. Traders on Wednesday morning were pricing in about a 64% probability of no change at the meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
“Should inflation data accelerate, or even stay stubbornly elevated, the Fed will likely increase rates, but for the time being, the encouraging inflation data has afforded the Fed some breathing room to wait for more signals,” Christophe Hodge, head of U.S. economics at Natixis CIB Americas, said in a note.
Indeed, the prevailing market sentiment is that the Fed stays on hold at the current 3.5%-3.75% target for its key interest rate, then enacts a hike come September assuming that inflation data still shows rates well above the central bank’s 2% goal.
The inflation numbers of late have been at least a little comforting, as a brief decline in gasoline saw the consumer price index post a surprise 0.4% drop in June. But the price break at the pump has been reversed in the past few weeks as the situation in the Middle East has been highly volatile.
“We’re going to have an interesting set of data points come out between now and the September meeting,” said Jerry Templeman, a former senior analyst at the New York Fed and now vice president of economics and fixed income research at Mutual of America Capital Management. “So, I don’t think that we’re going to necessarily be in the same position that we are today.”
The Fed will release its decision at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Warsh’s news conference at 2:30. There will be no Summary of Economic Projections released.
41 Min Ago
How Wall Street has been adjusting to the Warsh era
Christina Locopo | CNBC
Wall Street firms have been preparing for an era with less communication and forecasting expected out of the Warsh-run Fed.
F/m Investments this month rolled out “WarshGPT,” an artificial intelligence-powered bot that helps users understand how Warsh is thinking about topics. UBS sent a note out to clients following his innaugural policy meeting press conference as chair analyzing how relevant his comments were to policy.
— Alex Harring
40 Min Ago
Former Fed Governor Miran thinks rates should stay on hold
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran speaks with CNBC during the Invest i America Forum on Oct. 15, 2025.CNBC
While a Federal Reserve Governor, Stephen Miran pushed for lower interest rates. Now, he thinks the central bank at least should stay on hold rather than considering hiking.
In a CNBC interview, Miran said policymakers should consider the current spate of inflation as “transitory,” a view that got the Fed in trouble just a few years ago. However, he said this round is driven more by temporary effects from the Iran war, as evidenced by negative monthly inflation readings in June when oil prices fell.
“The Fed should stay on hold based on this, but also based on everything else that’s going on in the economy,” said Miran, who served on the Fed from September 2025 to May 2026.
“We had a marginally negative core [consumer price index] month-on-month print, so I don’t know what type of reaction function would say in June I thought it was appropriate to hold rates steady, but then I had a negative core CPI print, and that’s what pushed me over the edge to think I have to hike,” he added.
—Jeff Cox
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