For a long time, the Moroccan government chose not to comment on the Ceuta border crisisthat saw tens of thousands of migrants surging into the Spanish exclave on the African continent. It was not until Sunday that Moroccan interior ministry spokesperson Rachid El Khalfi said “the malicious exploitation of the digital space,” “misleading information” and misinterpretations of a Spanish Supreme Court ruling were to blame for the incident. Morocco has since said it never intended for the border surge to happen and has promised full cooperation with Spain.
Spain, however, was quick to suspect Moroccan involvement, with Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez calling the border breach an “attack on our territorial sovereignty.” Videos have, after all, surfaced showing Moroccan security forces doing nothing to stop the crowd surging forward.
Efforts have been made to try and explain what caused the migrant crisis. Some have said Spain’s recent rapprochement with Algeria may have angered Marocco, while others have speculated US influence may have played a role, although there is no reliable evidence to support the latter theory.
A complex situation
DW spoke with two analysts who caution against simplistic explanations. They do, however, ascribe different degrees of responsibility to Marocco for causing the crisis.
“I think the situation today is significantly different from what it was in 2021,” says Isabelle Werenfels, a Maghreb regional expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). Back then, Morocco was interested in exerting foreign policy pressure on Spain over the Western Sahara dispute, she says. Today, Moroccowould have “a great deal to lose, above all, international credibility and investment” if found to have deliberately orchestrated the Ceuta migrant surge.
Jochen Oltmer, a migration researcher at the University of Osnabrück in Germany, also warns against jumping to conclusions, telling DW “you have to keep in mind the many different interests at play.” He points to Ceuta’s unique status as a European exclave on the African continent, decades of migration flows, the impact of social networks, and the hopes of many migrants to build better lives abroad.
Oltmer says Moroccan authorities carry considerable responsibility for the Ceuta crisis, as “such a border crossing could never have taken place if the Moroccan side hadn’t looked the other way.” It was this inaction that made possible a border breach of this magnitude in the first place, he told DW.
Werenfels does not dispute this assessment. Yet she also believes Morocco may have wanted to send a political signal to Spain, perhaps over its recent rapprochement with Algeria and its decision to grant Spanish citizenship to individuals born in Western Sahara before September 1977.
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“But there is a significant difference between making a political statement and orchestrating a migration surge on this scale,” Werenfels says. The expert thinks it is “unlikely” that Morocco had planned the latter, even though it cannot be ruled out, while stressing a lot of information remains extremely unclear-
Who bears responsibility?
There is some evidence to suggest that Morocco played a part in the border surge to push its own political agenda, says Oltmer. For years, the country has viewed itself as an indispensable partner to the European Union in the context of migration policy, he says, adding that Morocco has repeatedly emphasized how much the bloc depends on its cooperation. Yet the conflict over Western Sahara, and Morocco’s rivalry with Algeria, also plays an important role, Oltmer explains. That is why he “ultimately cannot imagine that the recent events would have been possible without Morocco.”
Werenfels advocates for a more nuanced analysis. She suspects it’s possible that Morocco wanted to send a message but that matters got out of control. Werenfels says it is hard to imagine that Morocco would want to risk a lasting rift with Spain and the European Union. This is all the more true given that Morocco will be hosting the next football World Cup together with Spain and Portugal, and also depends on Spanish gas supplies. In 2025, one-quarter of Spain’s total natural gas exports went to Morocco.
Even if Morocco had wanted to send a political message, that does not automatically mean that it deliberately orchestrated a migration surge of this magnitude, Werenfels says. Doing so would carry enormous political and economic risk.
No evidence of third-party involvement
Neither of the experts believe a third country played a part in the Ceuta migration crisis. That said, Werenfels does entertain the possibility that other governments or political actors may have attempted to exploit the situation propagandistically for their own political interests and thereby may have amplified the crisis.
Werenfels also says it remains unclear how the situation escalated so quickly. There is much to suggest that news of an alleged border opening spread very quickly, prompting numerous young Moroccans to spontaneously set off for Ceuta. It is also possible that, given these circumstances, some Moroccan security personnel did not intervene.
Both scholars agree on the root causes of migration. “It’s about hope and expectations for the future,” says Oltmer. Moroccans have been emigrating for many decades, with family and friendship networks in Europe making it easier for people to risk moving abroad, he says.
Werenfels also points out social and economic factors driving emigration. She says that while Morocco had made progress in recent years, many young people are hardly seeing improvements in their everyday lives. The scholar says Marocco’s education and health care sectors show particularly significant shortcomings. This lack of prospects compels many to risk migrating abroad, Werenfels says.
Overall, both experts agree that the Ceuta migrant crisis was not brought about by a single political decision, or conspiracy theory, for that matter. The incident instead resulted from the interplay of geopolitical tensions, migration policy agendas, and the often precarious circumstances of many young Moroccans.
This article was translated from German
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