CNBC Daily Open: The Trump ‘Dividend’: $5,000 for control of Congress

The promise of a payment, and a claim oil will “come tumbling down” are the key takeaways from President Trump’s speech at the Republican’s convention.

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  • President Trump vows to pay every adult voter $5,000 if Republicans win the midterm elections.
  • During his Dallas speech, Trump also claimed oil prices will “come tumbling downward” after the election.
  • Futures point higher after three down days on Wall Street.
  • Exclusive: UBS CEO warns against investor complacency.
  • Bend it like Apple: John Ternus launches a slate of new products, including the much-anticipated foldable phone.

DALLAS, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 09: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks on stage on the first day of the 2026 Republican National Convention at the American Airlines Center on September 09, 2026 in Dallas, Texas. U.S. President Donald Trump will headline the Republican National Committee’s first-ever midterm convention as he aims to highlight his administration’s achievements and rally support for GOP candidates just two months before the upcoming elections being held on November 3. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)Justin Sullivan | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Hello, this is Leonie Kidd coming to you from London. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

Cash payments can be an eye-catching political promise, but the Trump administration’s record of delivering them has been mixed.

During Covid times, $1,200 stimulus checks were distributed to certain individuals across America. But last year’s promise of a $2000 “tariff dividend” for those most harshly impacted by President Donald Trump’s trade policies never materialized.

The strategy is back in the headlines with a fresh promise for all American voters if the midterms deliver what Trump wants — control of Congress.

Read on for more.

What you need to know today

President Donald Trump has vowed to pay every adult American a $5,000 “dividend” if Republicans win the midterm elections and retain control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives.

With around 260 million adult Americans per the 2020 Census, it would cost roughly $1.3 trillion to honor that commitment.

These payment promises are not new to the Trump administration, but have varied in execution. A 2020 stimulus payment during Covid times delivered Trump-signed checks of $1,200 to certain individuals. But another promise of a $2,000 “tariff dividend” was never enacted.

After the midterms…

President Trump was speaking at the Republican Party’s midterm convention in Dallas, Texas.

Just before the event, he told reporters: “Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward.” He also added that the war with Iran, which is now in its seventh month, will end “immediately after the election.”

Market pressure points

It was another day in the red for Wall Street on Wednesday, with the Dow down 400 points, adding to three days of declines. That streak could be snapped in Thursday’s trade, with futures called higher ahead of wholesale inflation data and another set of jobless numbers.

Higher Treasury yields kept the U.S. stock market under pressure after the Treasury Department said it would buy back up to $6 billion in longer-term debt – triple the usual amount.

In Europe, all eyes will be on the ECB today, with President Christine Lagarde “all but certain” to oversee a rate hike of at least 25 basis points.

Complacency caution

In an exclusive interview with CNBC, UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti has warned against investor complacency as geopolitical and economic risks rise.

Staying focused on executing the last mile of UBS-Credit Suisse Integration: UBS Group CEOwatch nowVIDEO12:21Focused on the last mile of UBS-Credit Suisse Integration: UBS Group CEOSquawk Box Asia

Bend it like Apple

Apple’s foldable iPhone duo has stolen the show at the tech giant’s “Surprise and Shine” event in Cupertino, California.

New CEO John Ternus made his debut unveiling a slate of new products, including the iPhone 18 Pro, AirPods 5, Apple Watch Series 12 and the much-anticipated Duo — the company’s first foldable phone.

iPhone DuoApple Inc.

Starting at $1,999, the hefty price tag has raised some eyebrows, with the stock trading lower in afternoon trade but gaining some ground after hours.

— Leonie Kidd

And Finally…

Samsung works to draw iPhone users to its foldables even as Apple enters the market

Samsung is hoping to capitalize on renewed interest in foldable phones, luring customers just as Apple enters the market.

Globally, the share of iOS users switching to Samsung’s latest Galaxy Z Fold8 series, launched in July, was 1.6 times that of the previous-generation Galaxy Z Fold7 and Flip7, a Samsung Electronics spokesperson told CNBC. Samsung pioneered the category with its first Galaxy Fold in 2019.

— Jenny Lee

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