How the S&P 500 can be at record highs, while the market remains oversold

The S&P 500’s new all-time high Tuesday might just be one of the most hated records in recent memory.

Skip NavigationJoin ICJoin ProLivestreamMenuThe S & P 500 ‘s new all-time high Tuesday might just be one of the most hated records in recent memory. You may have heard Jim Cramer and other market watchers warn that the market rally has been too narrow. That’s because most of the 500 stocks in the index have lagged since the last record on Aug. 13, with only a handful of the usual megacap suspects doing most of the work. In total, about three quarters of the stocks in the index were in the red between Aug. 13 and Monday’s close, according to FactSet. To best illustrate this dynamic, let’s look at the market cap-weighted S & P 500, the broad benchmark that everyone talks about every day, versus the S & P 500 Equal Weight , which treats all stocks the same. Since the S & P 500 is market cap-weighted, the “Magnificent Seven” and other trillion-dollar brethren like AMD and Club name Micron are so big that their moves can swing the entire index, pretty much regardless of the other names. The Equal Weight looks to level the playing field and smooth out how all 500 stocks are doing, not just the seven biggest, providing a more holistic picture of the names that make up most of the index. In contrast to Tuesday’s S & P 500 record, the Aug. 13 new high was loved. That’s because both the S & P 500 and the Equal Weight closed at record highs on the same day. And, from the beginning of the year through the Aug. 13 close, the performance of both indexes was similar. The Equal Weight actually had the edge, up 16% over that stretch, signifying a broader base of stocks participating in the rally. The S & P 500 was up 14% over that period. The Equal Weight’s annual performance hasn’t bested the regular S & P since 2022, which also marked the start of the generative AI boom that later gave rise to the Mag 7. .SPX .SPXEW mountain 2026-08-12 S & P 500 vs. S & P 500 Equal Weight since Aug. 13 Since then, the opposite has happened. The S & P 500 is up about 1% since Aug. 13, while the Equal Weight is down nearly 5%. That tells us that many of the 500 stocks in the S & P 500 are not participating in the rally back to all-time highs — and it’s the big names that have carried the load. The market participation in the last few sessions has broadened out some. It’s something to watch to see if it will continue. The S & P Short Range Oscillator , the market momentum indicator that Jim has trusted for decades, also shows the disparity into Tuesday’s record. While the S & P 500 was shaking off its summer swoon and marching higher, the Oscillator started to flash oversold on Sept. 10. Over the next 18 sessions, the Oscillator remained oversold as the S & P 500 rose nearly 2.5% through Monday’s close. Over that same period, the Equal Weight lost 2.6%, which would explain how the Oscillator can be oversold during an S & P 500 rally. To be sure, the investing backdrop has been perilous. With bond yields and oil prices soaring, it may be understandable that people are flocking back to the familiar. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates once more before the end of the year. A rising rate environment favors companies that don’t need lower borrowing costs to grow. Again, that’s the megacaps. “It’s a lot of AI names carrying the market, and the AI buildout is going to happen regardless of the recent rise in interest rates,” said portfolio director Jeff Marks. Since Aug. 13, Club name Meta Platforms was up about 25% through Monday, while AMD jumped 31%. Nvidia , the biggest stock of them all, contributed a 6% advance, as did Microsoft . At the same time, he added that economically sensitive sectors are struggling with rates and high oil prices. For example, transportation stocks such as Club name FedEx Freight , Old Dominion Freight Line and J.B. Hunt have been big losers of late. What investors are not taking into account is that oil prices probably won’t remain this high forever. Jeff stressed that such a shift is the reason not to give up on the non-AI names because all it takes is a break in the Middle East conflict and a drop in bond yields for the market to rotate back into other beaten-down sectors. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.Read More

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