Goldman upgrades stock and bond markets on strong earnings growth, little recession risk

Goldman Sachs is overweight stocks over three months and bonds over 12 months, citing strong earnings, lower valuations and low recession risk.

Skip NavigationJoin ICJoin ProLivestreamMenuInvestors don’t need to choose between stocks and bonds with both markets well-positioned, according to Goldman Sachs. Strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann advised clients be overweight stocks over the next three months. He also thinks bonds are a buy over the next year. Both asset classes have seen their share of volatility as tensions in the Middle East keep oil prices elevated — raising concern that the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates further to tamp down inflation. But Mueller-Glissmann thinks the outlook is bright going forward. For stocks, “earnings growth remains supportive for equities and the recent valuation de-rating has improved asymmetry into the Q3 earnings season,” he said in a note. .SPX YTD mountain SPX in 2026 The corporate earnings season kicks into full gear this week, with UnitedHealth and the six largest U.S. banks — Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup — set to report . Analysts expect strong results, with FactSet data pointing to nearly 30% third-quarter earnings growth from the year-earlier period. “Global equities in aggregate have been range-bound despite continued strong underlying earnings growth – as a result they de-rated materially alongside rising bond yields,” Mueller-Glissmann said. Yields on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note and 30-year bond climbed to their highest level since 2002 last week. Since Aug. 25, the former is up more than 60 basis points, while the latter has ripped 44 bps higher. US10Y mountain 2026-08-25 10-year yield since Aug. 25 Those moves have made longer-dated bonds attractive, according to Goldman, leading the bank to upgrade the asset class. “With our macro baseline of inflation normalisation, peaking energy prices and dovish views on central banks, allocations to bonds are becoming more attractive for investors with longer investment horizons,” the bank said.Read More

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