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The Kremlin is getting closer to opening its ‘new eye’ on Europe. Construction of a towering radar complex is almost complete in Russia’s highly militarized exclave of Kaliningrad, according to reports.
From above, the three radiating arms of the sprawling facility – each more than 500 meters long – look like some sort of alien lifeform has left its mark on an otherwise undisturbed stretch of forested nature reserve. You could actually compare it to a landing platform or launch pad for Moscow’s massive intelligence-gathering network.
While Russia has not confirmed it is building the structure, security expert Vaidotas Malinionis said the radar will be so big, it will be able to see beyond the earth’s curvature. The retired commander from Lithuania told DW the over-the-horizon (OTH) radar network near Gvardeysk will have a surveillance range of about 3,000 kilometers, allowing Moscow to peer into almost every corner of Europe, as well as right across Ukraine.
The system would reportedly allow Russia to intercept satellite communications and detect aircraft movements and ballistic missiles.
“The goal and the purpose of this radar is observation of long-distance targets and early warning capabilities. We still don’t know if it is operationally capable of doing that, but it is definitely being constructed right now,” he added.
Mass surveillance system
The British newspaper The Times reports that the systems are primarily intended for the detection and jamming of electronic signals – citing the Finnish-Polish space and defense technology company ICEYE.
“They would be able to use it in offensive operations, to get more information about specific targets,” explained Malinionis.
“And if they were able to get an early warning about the movement of NATO troops, in the case of an invasion on NATO’s eastern frontier, then they would gain more time for decision-making.”
Speaking to DW from the shores of the Baltic Sea, Latvian geopolitical analyst Evija Djatkovica warned there is a significant downside for NATO to this old Soviet technology being revived when it comes to the increased use of new tech in the warfare of today.
“It will help Russia close existing loopholes in detecting low-flying objects, making the rapidly developing integration of drones into regional defense doctrines less effective,” she claimed.
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Electronic warfare hub
The Times report goes on to say that ICEYE sees Russia’s expansion of its OTH radar system as proof that Kaliningrad is being developed into a hub for advanced military sensors and electronic warfare systems.
“The new radar signals an intensifying contest between Russia and NATO for military supremacy and control of the Kaliningrad region,” Djatkovica underlined.
“This is a potentially dangerous situation, since further militarization on both sides could be expected and, at some point, a preemptive strike becomes an option to deny the other side an unacceptable advantage over the region,” she warned.
Russia has already alerted NATO it would be ready to resort to nuclear weapons if the Western alliance attempted to blockade Kaliningrad. The potential flashpoint and Russian outpost is situated on the Baltic Sea, wedged between NATO member states Poland and Lithuania– on the very doorstep of the alliance’s eastern flank.
The exclave is only 200 kilometers from west to east and 100 kilometers from north to south. However, from what Malinionis asserted, Russia’s smallest federal region or oblast packs a punch.
“According to some sources, they have the capability to deploy up to 100 nuclear warheads in Kaliningrad. And some sources say they have already started deploying some there – although that is yet to be confirmed,” the former commander pointed out.
ICEYE claims to have discovered another large circular antenna complex some 50 kilometers west of Gvardeysk, near the city of Chernyakhovsk, according to the German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ). More than 20 signal and electronic warfare facilities are reportedly peppered throughout the Kaliningrad region.
Satellite images also reveal new shelters for fighter jets at the Kaliningrad-Chkalovsk military airfield, according to the FAZ report. Other images show launch pads at the mobile S-400 surface-to-air missile site in Baltiysk, meaning the systems could well be operational.
“These factors clearly depict the strategic importance of territories around Kaliningrad for both Russia and NATO,” said Djatkovica. “For Russia, among other things, Kaliningrad’s geographic position and nuclear arsenal stationed there allow it to project threats against most European capitals.”
This is where the gargantuan radar comes into play, according to her. “Because of the radar’s long reach, other European regions from North to West will also become more exposed to Russia’s surveillance and military actions.”
Motivation for the West
She sighed, saying the good news is that every escalatory step that Russia takes, with repercussions for European countries even further away from its borders, the more the whole continent takes Moscow seriously as a direct threat.
“Russia’s malign signals should motivate the West to keep up with rearmament, which, in turn, will make NATO and Europe’s collective deterrence more credible.”
Djatkovica used the example of Poland, which has been transforming its offshore wind farm in the Baltic Sea into NATO surveillance infrastructure.
In another step towards integrating newer technologies, German arms producer Rheinmetall is building Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellites in conjunction with the firm ICEYE. They beam down precise pictures of troop movements and enemy positions, even at night or in bad weather.
The images will be used on NATO’s eastern flank and by the Bundeswehr brigade stationed in Lithuania. The first SAR satellites are set to be launched into orbit on a SpaceX rocket in early 2027.
Malinionis agreed that adaptation is the most important lesson to be learnt for European leaders in times of Russian aggression. But he had another point to make. “There is also one disadvantage for this new Russian radar. Because it’s so huge, it’s a pretty easy target!”
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