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- “The reason we lost is the war,” Vice President JD Vance said on social media.
- The election results are leading the oil market to believe President Donald Trump now has a bigger incentive to cut a deal with Iran, analysts say.
watch nowVIDEO02:56Vice President Vance blames Iran war for Republican midterm lossesSquawk on the Street
Crude oil prices tumbled on Wednesday after Vice President JD Vance blamed the war against Iran for Republican midterm election reversals.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate was nearly 9% lower at $87.59 a barrel by 12:36 p.m. ET. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, were down more than 9% to $93.91.
“The reason we lost is the war,” Vance said in a social media post Wednesday. “The president himself said so last night.”
Democrats swept the House and Senate in Tuesday’s elections, giving the party leverage to pressure President Donald Trump to end the unpopular war that has spiked gasoline and diesel prices.
“The elections are leading the market to conclude that Trump might now be inclined to make a deal,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
The Democrats may try to restrict funding for the war, Lipow said. Trump’s announcement earlier this week that the U.S. will cut some funding to Israel could force Jerusalem to accept Washington’s decisions, he said.
Vance said a lot of voters who supported Trump in 2024 appear to have abandoned the GOP last night due to their dissatisfication with the war.
Trump told The Financial Times on Tuesday that he has no immediate plans to strike Iran. The oil market had priced in the risk of a major escalation after the elections, gaining more than 10% in October.
The oil market is in a “shoot first, ask questions” later mode as emotions run high after the unexpected election results, said Rebecca Babin senior energy trader at CIBC.
Many observers expected a Democrat tsunami could push Trump to escalate with Iran, Babin said. But “Vance’s commentary and the public lack of backing from key allies have challenged that assumption,” she said.
Oil futures have sold off more than 14% this week as senior U.S. and Iranian officials indicated they’re open to a diplomatic settlement to the conflict, which has disrupted global energy supplies for eight months.
“If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so,” Vance wrote. “Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.
“But everyone knows why we lost,” the vice president said. “And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.”
