Skip NavigationScientist and Pulitzer Prize-winning author Jared DiamondMaryvit Luna | CNBC Make It; Kenneth C. Zirkel
You can go to school to learn leadership strategies and skills. But that might be a waste of time and money if your intention is to run a successful company one day, according to scientist and Pulitzer Prize-winning author Jared Diamond.
As he posits in his latest book “Profits, Prophets, Coaches, and Kings: (When) Do Leaders Matter?,” released earlier this month, good leaders are neither born nor made. They’re confident and optimistic risk-takers, yes, but almost always, they’re also in the right place at the right time.
When it comes to determining the success of a business, Diamond argues that circumstances — those often beyond a CEO’s control, from timing and location to market competition and regulatory forces — tend to make a greater difference in whether a business succeeds or fails.
“The United States, in general, is a good place to found a business” for a whole host of reasons, including economic strength and access to capital, as well as a relatively stable system of corporate laws and safeguards, says Diamond, a professor emeritus of geography at the University of California, Los Angeles. And when the U.S. lacked these qualities in, say, 1930 — during the Great Depression, which followed the 1929 stock market crash — that, he says, “was not a good year to found a business in the United States.” It may sound somewhat obvious, but the point is that strong leadership will only thrive in the conditions that allow it to, which makes it essential for prospective leaders, and the people and institutions that anoint them, to recognize when those conditions are optimal, or not, so leadership skills can actually make a meaningful difference.
“There are many circumstances under which it’s impossible [to be an effective leader]. There are other circumstances where it is possible, provided that you’ve got the qualities that business schools claim to teach you,” says Diamond, who, in prior works, expounded on the impact of geographic location on geopolitical and economic dominance. Notable cases he considered in his latest book include Jeff Bezos, Steve Jobs, Genghis Khan and Jesus Christ.
Here, Diamond discusses other conditions that make success more likely, in business and beyond, as well as climbing CEO salaries and the most common qualities shared by some of history’s great leaders and why they may be necessary for motivating people to join their causes.
CNBC Make It: Beyond time and place, what are other conditions under which leadership success is possible?
Jared Diamond: If you are founding a business, you have more power than if you are the 37th consecutive CEO, because the founder often sets the operating rules — for good or for bad. Another thing that makes a difference is how much power or discretion you have. In the business world, this is particularly important. If you are the CEO of a public utilities company, which is tightly regulated by the government, you have limited freedom [to employ creative strategy].
CNBC Make It: And, in terms of founders versus successors: Is the idea that founders are typically more effective leaders than their successors? Or, is it just harder to significantly change direction farther down the succession line?
Jared Diamond: The latter. Founders are in a better position to succeed or to fail, to set up good or bad institutions. Once you set up the institutions, they’re harder to change. The founding institutions are likely to carry on [whether they] be good institutions or bad institutions.
Someone who comes along in the line, particularly if a company is in difficulty, can make a difference. [In the late 1970s], Chrysler was getting into deep, deep trouble, and then Chrysler CEO [Lee Iacocca] was someone who had been fired [by Ford Motor], but he managed to rescue Chrysler. On the average, though, the founder has more potential for making a difference for the good or for bad.
CNBC Make It: Corporate boards tend to pursue talented leaders who can put their stamp on a business at any stage in its trajectory, hence the climbing CEO salaries that were about 325 times that of the average worker’s take-home pay in 2025. Are those high salaries typically worth it, or are they only helpful once other conditions like those you describe in your book are met?
Jared Diamond: Sometimes a CEO is worth a huge salary. If a CEO of a company that you don’t know much about comes along and says: ‘My company made $10 billion last year under me, so the least you can do is to pay me a lousy $1 billion.’ Well, some CEOs deserve their $1 billion, and some CEOs are replaceable. There are 37 people who could have done it [under the same conditions, with a similar skillset]. So you don’t automatically agree when the CEO says, ‘Pay me a billion dollars.’ Sometimes it’s worth it, and sometimes it’s not.
Different moments in an institution require different skills, and sometimes those skills may be low key, warranting a modest salary. And sometimes those skills have to be [from] the most expensive person around.
CNBC Make It: If optimal conditions are necessary to be a true difference-maker, is the foresight to recognize them a crucial skill for a successful leader?
Jared Diamond: That’s right. Recognizing time and place is essential. Other things are also important, but if you don’t have the right time and place, you’re lost.
For example, religious leader Joseph Smith, who founded the Mormon religion, was charismatic. But Joseph Smith was charismatic in the United States in the 19th Century, when the U.S. was a growing economic and military power. You’ve got to be there at the right place, but you also have to have the right qualities.
CNBC Make It: What qualities are necessary, even in relatively optimal conditions? Do the successful leaders you have studied all share specific skills and traits that really make them stand out?
Jared Diamond: To succeed in business, you have to be confident, optimistic, and risk-taking. If you want to do something that hasn’t been done before, you’ve got to take a risk, and you’ve got to be prepared to fail. Elon Musk, for example… came very close [to bankruptcy]. Steve Jobs got fired.
To be a risk taker, sometimes you get away with the risk, and sometimes you fail. One can say that a risk taker is going to make a difference, either for the good or for the bad.
CNBC Make It: Confident leaders also have an easier time convincing people to see their point of view, and you write in your book about the importance of being able to convince others to do things they otherwise would not have attempted. What are some prominent examples of those motivational skills?
Jared Diamond: Jeff Bezos is famous for insisting that people do [a task] and, if they say: ‘No, it’s impossible.’ [He says]: ‘Do it anyway.’ Elon Musk walked down the line [at Tesla’s factories] and told people: ‘Do it faster.’ Both of them pushed people. Steve Jobs pushed people to do more than they thought that they were capable of doing, and the result was that people often did do more than they thought that they were capable of doing.
CNBC Make It: It’s true that several notable tech leaders have had reputations for setting extremely high standards and using harsh criticism when those are not met. At least one, Bill Gates, has expressed regret for his own methods. There are obviously many ways to motivate people, but do you really believe that’s the most successful method?
Jared Diamond: Is it possible to be a nice guy and succeed in the business world? Maybe, in a small company, yes. My guess is in a big company, no. There’s a saying: ‘Nice guys finish last.’ If you’ve got a large group, it may be difficult or impossible to be a nice guy and get 87,000 people to do your bidding successfully.
CNBC Make It: Past success must also play a role in motivating people to tackle a difficult, or risky, challenge, right?
Jared Diamond: It’s true both in the business world and [elsewhere]. Elon Musk has attempted really bold things that seemed highly risky that other people would not try, but he’s got a good track record. If you can say to your followers: ‘I said that this was possible, and everybody said it was impossible. But I was right… So listen to me.’
This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.
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