Germany’s population is expected to decline from 83.5 million in 2025 to around 81.8 million by 2045, according to a new study from the Berlin Institute for Population and Development (Berlin-Institut für Bevölkerung und Entwicklung), in collaboration with the Wüstenrot Foundation, a non-profit that supports research on housing, urban development, and social change.
The decline in population alone is not the central challenge. More significant is the continuing rise in the number of retirees alongside a steadily shrinking workforce. Across Germany, the working-age population is projected to decrease by 4.7% by 2045.
“The baby boomer generation is retiring, while significantly smaller cohorts are following. Birth rates are falling, and immigration is not sufficient to offset the growing surplus of deaths over births,” said Institute President Catherina Hinz when presenting the study in Berlin.
The term “baby boomers” refers to those born in the 1960s, when annual births exceeded one million. Thereafter, the birth rate fell sharply, effectively halving.
The economy matters
Germany’s population may be shrinking, but according to the study, this trend is far from uniform across the country. In the years ahead, a region’s economic attractiveness, and the financial strength that comes with it, will become even more important than it is today.
“Some regions will lose substantial numbers of residents and workers in the years ahead, while others continue to grow. Even within eastern Germany, southern Germany, and rural areas, the demographic and economic divide is widening,” said Hinz.
“Demographic change is unfolding before our very eyes, and its effects are being felt across the country,” Hinz added. “Its consequences can still be mitigated, but they can no longer be avoided. And the longer we wait, the narrower our scope for action will become.”
Hinz’s warning is echoed by Frederick Sixtus of the Berlin Institute. Almost every region now records more deaths than births, he notes, a consequence of decades of low birth rates. The implication is clear: Migration, both inward and outward, now shapes a region’s demographic trajectory. Over recent decades, immigration from abroad has repeatedly helped stabilize population trends. Yet migration alone is no longer enough to halt the aging of society.
According to the study, several factors are critical if a region is to remain attractive to people relocating from abroad or from other parts of Germany: High-quality jobs offering good pay and working conditions, a sufficient supply of skilled workers for local businesses, financially robust municipalities, reliable childcare, and efficient transport and mobility infrastructure.
Berlin leads the way
Many major cities are expected to continue to grow in the years ahead, according to Manuel Slupina of the Wüstenrot Foundation. The study projects that Berlin will lead the way, with the capital’s population increasing by almost 10% by 2045. Other cities expected to attract people include Hamburg, Frankfurt am Main, Munich, and Düsseldorf in western Germany, as well as Leipzig, Dresden, and Potsdam in the east.
The study’s authors argue that the familiar distinction between urban and rural areas does not hold true everywhere. The hinterlands of many major cities are also expected to grow. While young people are increasingly drawn to metropolitan centers, families with children tend to settle in the surrounding areas. Among the places likely to lose population are several large cities in western Germany, including Bremen, Duisburg, Dortmund, and Kaiserslautern, whose economic appeal has gradually diminished. At the bottom of the ranking are many sparsely populated regions, a large number of them in eastern Germany.
Competition for talent
Twelve of the 20 districts and independent cities with the weakest overall ratings are now located in eastern Germany, up from five in the previous assessment in 2019. According to the study, these regions are also expected to see the steepest declines in their working-age populations, with losses of up to 18% by 2045. The authors conclude that competition for workers is therefore set to become one of the key demographic challenges of the decades ahead.
In this competition, the southern German states of Bavariaand Baden-Württemberg are regarded as having the strongest prospects. Bavaria ranks particularly highly thanks to its robust economy, which is thriving across much of the state, and its strong labor market. Women, older people, and people without German citizenship are also more likely to be employed in Bavaria than elsewhere. The ranking shows that economically successful regions are more effective at integrating different population groups into the labor market than weaker ones.
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Policymakers must find local solutions
Under Germany’s constitution, the country is committed to ensuring that people enjoy comparable opportunities, and with them the prospect of a good life, regardless of where they live.
The researchers offer clear recommendations to policymakers. They argue that the focus must be on addressing structural challenges and regional disparities. “What may be the right response for a growing major city is not necessarily the right one for a shrinking rural district,” says Slupina. Tailor-made solutions are needed, but they require the right framework conditions. “There needs to be less rigid regulation, more scope for local initiative, and greater financial resources, especially for municipalities and those actively engaged at the local level.” Slupina’s message is clear: Regions should be trusted to shape their own futures.
Local authorities would no doubt welcome that. For years, mayors and district administrators have been calling for greater financial autonomy. They are currently seeking a larger share of overall tax revenues for municipalities. The federal government and the states, however, argue that they face budgetary constraints of their own. Yet both sides recognize that, sooner or later, Germany will have little choice but to reform its system of fiscal federalism.
This article was originally written in German.
