CNA Explains: What’s driving Japan’s urgent defence push?
Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi urged Japan to boost its defence capabilities with a greater “sense of urgency and crisis” on Tuesday (Aug 4), as a government white paper highlighted growing threats from China, North Korea and Russia.
Type 90 battle tanks of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force are seen during a live fire exercise at East Fuji Maneuver Area in Gotemba on Jun 7, 2026. (File photo: AFP/Yuichi Yamazaki)
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Japan has been strengthening its defence capabilities for years, but officials now say the pace must quicken as the regional security environment deteriorates.
Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said on Tuesday (Aug 4) that Tokyo needs a greater “sense of urgency and crisis”, as the government’s latest defence white paper highlighted mounting threats from China, North Korea and Russia.
The push has drawn criticism from Beijing and Pyongyang, which accuse Japan of abandoning its post-war pacifist principles.
But Tokyo insists its actions remain defensive and within constitutional limits. So what is really driving Japan’s military buildup – and how significant is it?
Is this really a new shift?
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Despite growing attention, experts said Japan’s current push is not a sudden “remilitarisation” given that the country has had self-defence capabilities for decades.
Japan renounced the right to maintain a military under Article 9 of its US-drafted constitution after World War II. However, it established the Self-Defense Forces in 1954 to ensure it could protect itself.
“Japan legally does not have a military; it has a Self-Defense Force,” said Jeffrey Hornung, a senior political scientist at RAND.
“Japan has been upgrading its defence capabilities for over a decade now. What we see now is simply a continuation of this trend.”
The latest phase of expansion began in 2022, against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when then-prime minister Fumio Kishida called for a “fundamental enhancement” of defence capabilities.
Since then, Japan has committed to raising defence spending to 2 per cent of GDP by 2027 – a target it has already reached ahead of schedule. It has also acquired long-range missiles.
The scale of spending marks Japan’s biggest military buildup since World War II.
What is driving the urgency?
Experts point to two broad drivers: A more threatening security environment, as well as uncertainty over US support.
Japan’s ties with China, North Korea and Russia have worsened in recent years, with frequent military activity near its territory. Japanese jets scrambled 595 times in the year to Mar 31, including 366 responses to Chinese aircraft and 214 to Russian planes.
“Japan lives in a neighbourhood where three states with nuclear weapons publicly criticise Japan and threaten its security and national sovereignty,” Dr Hornung told CNA.
“Every time China commits a provocative act against regional powers or North Korea launches a missile near Japan, the Japanese public becomes more supportive of a more robust self-defence force.”
At the same time, global conflicts – from Ukraine to the Middle East – have underscored the risks of over-reliance on allies.
Yuki Tatsumi, senior director at the Institute for Indo-Pacific Security, pointed to a changing security world order.
“When we are entering an era in which the US demands all of its allies to do more for their own defence, Japan’s attempt to do so is absolutely legitimate,” she told CNA.
Tokyo’s efforts to boost its defence capabilities are not only accepted, but also welcomed by a vast majority of countries globally, she added.
A poll cited by Asahi Shimbun in 2025 showed that more than 75 per cent of Japanese respondents were uncertain the US would defend Japan – reflecting growing public concern.
Richard Fontaine, chief executive of the Center for a New American Security, said Tokyo’s strategy serves a dual purpose – strengthening deterrence while reinforcing its alliance with Washington.
“Japanese leaders seek to demonstrate their value to the alliance, helping assure America’s continued commitment,” he said.
“But a stronger military also helps Japan hedge, both against the region’s rising threats and the possibility of US inconstancy.”
Is Japan’s buildup within its constitutional limits?
Despite protests from China and North Korea, analysts said Japan’s defence buildup remains within the framework of its pacifist constitution.
Tatsumi noted that Japan is not developing an expeditionary force like the United States, but focusing on homeland defence – including stockpiles, industrial capacity and force readiness.
Dr Hornung added that Japan’s efforts are essentially a modernisation of its existing forces – all within the confines of its legal and political limitations.
Even capabilities such as long-range missiles are designed for counter-strike use, he said.
“Critics of Japan would likely highlight that long-range missiles are pushing boundaries; but when you look at … how they are to be used, they are limited to ‘counter use’ strategies, meaning they can only be used once Japan is attacked,” Dr Hornung said.
The Japanese government, in its latest defence white paper, continues to emphasise an “exclusively defence-oriented policy”, along with longstanding principles such as civilian control of the military and its non-nuclear stance.
How will Japan strengthen its capabilities?
Beyond upgrading its existing hardware, analysts said Japan is likely to shift towards capabilities tailored for modern warfare.
Tokyo is adapting its forces to counter emerging threats seen in conflicts such as Ukraine and the Middle East, said Dr Hornung, pointing to drones as well as more robust air and missile defence capabilities.
The government’s latest defence white paper underscores the need to evolve with “new ways of warfare”, noting in particular the growing role of uncrewed systems on the battlefield.
Tatsumi said such systems, along with artificial intelligence and autonomous technology, could also help Japan make up for its ageing population and shrinking number of service members.
At the same time, Tokyo is strengthening its defence industrial base – seen as critical to sustaining military readiness over the long term.
The government has stepped up funding for startups and scientific research in arms production and technology. It has also loosened long-standing restrictions on defence exports, opening the door to supplying equipment such as warships and missiles to partner countries.
A stronger defence industrial base will help Japan build its ability to defend its territories over a prolonged period, Tatsumi said.
Want an issue or topic explained? Email us at digitalnews [at] mediacorp.com.sg. Your question might become a story on our site.
Source: CNA/co(gs)
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