The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) have appealed for over $200 million in funds to help protect 8.8 million people across 22 high-risk countries from the looming return the destructive El Nino weather pattern.
The support would include cash transfers, climate-resilient seeds, livestock protection and flood control measures, as extreme weather patterns affect much of the world already.
“El Nino conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific, and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events in many parts of the world,” the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned.
In Africa, the countries listed as most at risk include Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda and Zimbabwe.
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El Nino: What it means for Africa
El Nino is a naturally occurring warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which usually happens every two to seven years.
It can last between nine and 12 months and, in some regions, El Nino can bring hotter and drier conditions, while in others, it can increase rainfall and flooding.
“For Africa, it’s not one climate story. It’s actually going to be a much more varied impact,” says Kgaugelo Mkumbeni, a research officer in the Climate Risk and Human Security Project at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, South Africa.
Southern Africa has in the past experienced “hotter and much drier conditions” during previous El Nino events, she explains, which raises the risk of “drought, water shortages and general food insecurity.”
The situation in Eastern Africa, however, is more complex, as El Nino can have different effects depending on the season.
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Global warming: from bad to worse
Bhargabi Bharadwaj, a research associate at Chatham House’s Environment and Society Centre, says that “El Nino reshapes rainfall and temperature patterns around the world, though its impacts can vary depending on the region and which season it hits.”
“Some areas will face drier conditions, which increases risk of drought and wildfire occurrence, whereas other parts of the world will have wetter conditions and face likelihood of storms and flooding,” Bharadwaj stresses.
Scientists like Bharadwaj believe climate change does not directly cause El Nino but that it can make its effects more severe.
“We’re working with warmer baseline temperatures of around 1.4 degrees higher than pre-industrial levels. This means that when an El Nino event does occur, then there are more extreme outcomes,” Bharadwaj told DW.
Some experts are also concerned about the possibility of a very strong — or “super” — El Nino this year,”when your average temperature difference is around two degrees higher, or at least forecast to be two degrees higher,” she adds.
Acting before disaster strikes
The real challenge is whether governments and aid agencies can act quickly enough, as “science is ahead of policy,” Bharadwaj says.
In northern Kenya, Abdikadir Aden Hassan, founder of Garissa Million Trees, said the danger is not only the possibility of heavy rains and subsequent floods, but the fact that they may come after months of drought.
“We are in a dry spell and are headed toward drought in August and September,” he told DW. “Then in October, November and December, we are expected to have the short rains. People may be coming out of drought and then going straight into flash floods. That means their livelihoods will be affected for a second time,” Hassan explains.
With lives and livelihoods at stake, experts argue that Africa’s climate preparedness cannot be left to environment ministries alone.
“It has to be embedded within agriculture, within health, within water, within energy, education and social protection,” Mkumbeni told DW.
Climate-linked displacement
Conflicts, high energy costs, debt pressures, fertilizer disruptions and cuts in international aid are already weakening the ability of many countries to respond to external shocks. Bharadwaj believes that this makes the forecast for 2026 particularly worrying.
“The concern isn’t just El Nino. It’s that it’s occurring at a time when the global system is already quite fragile. A lot of the vulnerable populations are living in regions that are highly impacted by import costs but also high debt,” she told DW.
Aimee-Noel Mbiyozo, a senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, highlights that climate-related events are already forcing people to leave their homes.
“Cyclones and flooding have been by far and away the biggest pushers of mass displacement in Africa. Drought has as well, but drought tends to do it a little bit more slowly,” she highlights.
“People don’t want to leave home. Most people want to stay where they are.”
Cities on the frontline of climate crises
Drought and desertification are driving people increasingly towards Africa’s towns and cities, which are increasingly having to absorb climate-linked migration — even as many struggle with wide-ranging issues like housing, public services and informal employment.
“The bulk of the movement that’s happening, whether it’s sudden or slow or general population growth, is into the cities,” Mbiyozo emphasizes.
According to the World Bank, climate change alone could drive up to 86 million additional internally displaced people into African cities by 2050.
Particular concern for Lake Chad and southern Africa
In the fragile Lake Chad Basin, research on displacement patterns between 2008 and 2024 found that disasters displace more people than conflict and violence, Mbiyozo explains, adding that “what we’re also finding is that the violence is intersecting with the disasters.”
She describes the region as grounds for a “perfect storm,” where borderland fragility, violent extremism, pastoralism, and climate shocks are all colliding.
Southern Africa meanwhile is another major area of concern. The region has faced repeated cycles of drought and cyclones, with countries such as Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe and Madagascar repeatedly affected in recent years.
“Madagascar at this point is hit by cyclones almost every year,” Mbiyozo says, adding that Mozambique has repeatedly been facing “never-before-seen strength cyclones” in recent years.
Are early warning mechanisms enough?
Some countries have made progress in being better prepared: Mozambique has invested in early warning systems and climate literacy in coastal communities. South Africa has passed a Climate Change Act, which experts see as a positive legislative step.
Kenya has improved coordination between government agencies and humanitarian organizations, including emergency operation centers and efforts to move people in flood-prone areas to higher ground, says Hassan.
“As a country, we are better off and much more organised right now,” he told DW. “But the challenge is that if we do not get external support, the national emergency funds available may not be enough.”
He believes that early warnings systems must be matched by funds that are available before disasters escalate: “Money may be allocated, but delays in releasing it can make the disaster worse.”
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Cai Nebe Contributed to this article
Edited by: Sertan Sanderson
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