New data shows Starbucks turnaround is working, but Chipotle takeover report slams shares

Every weekday, the Investing Club releases the Homestretch; an actionable afternoon update just in time for the last hour of trading.

Skip NavigationJoin ICJoin ProLivestreamMenuEvery weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Wall Street is on track for another day of declines. The familiar double-whammy of higher oil prices and bond yields hurt stocks early in the session, and the selling was later exacerbated by a Financial Times report that OpenAI’s annualized revenue run rate is considerably less than investors previously expected. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is leading the way lower — off more than 1%. The bond sell-off has actually eased throughout Thursday, with the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields turning lower on the session (a solid 30-year bond auction at 1 p.m. ET helped here too). But any relief that equity investors may have expected to see at the index level is being masked by the OpenAI report, which led to heavier selling in tech and AI stocks. Some of the biggest losses are being seen in Oracle , whose cloud business has a long-term compute deal with the ChatGPT creator. Within our portfolio, Broadcom , which co-designs custom silicon for OpenAI, saw its declines pick up steam in afternoon trading. Intel and memory-chip giant Micron were also down big Thursday. We’ve been active in putting money to work Thursday, buying shares of Kimberly-Clark , FedEx and Bank of New York . Starbucks is standing out against fast-growing competitors including Dutch Bros , according to new data from consumer-insights firm HundredX. It’s further proof that the Starbucks turnaround is taking hold. The finding is notable for a couple of reasons. For starters, in this challenging period of elevated gas prices and inflation, it’s encouraging to see customers tell HundredX they intend to spend more of their hard-earned money at Starbucks’ cafes. Bigger picture, the data is encouraging because one of the Starbucks bear cases is that its long-term growth is threatened by upstart beverage brands embarking on nationwide expansions of their own, mirroring the playbook Seattle-based Starbucks used to great success decades earlier. Of course, we cannot know for sure what the competitive landscape will look like in a couple of years. But what we’re seeing from HundredX reflects positively on the Starbucks brand and business near term. A quick note on privately held HundredX: its survey methodology centers on what it calls “future usage intent,” meaning whether a person plans to use something more or less going forward. That forward-looking nature can help us spot trends before they show up in other data sources, like reported financial results. Plus, in exchange for answers, HundredX contributes to charitable causes chosen by respondents — a data-for-good model that aligns with our mission here at the Club. Now, let’s get to what HundredX has found about future usage intent at Starbucks versus a peer group of Dunkin’, Dutch Bros, and 7 Brew — with the latter two drive-thru-based chains being particularly aggressive about expansion. The chart below was sent to us earlier Thursday by the HundredX team, showing that Starbucks is the only one whose customers’ future purchase intent is increasing in the past few months: HundredX CEO Rob Pace told us the feedback is from 29,000 customers of Starbucks and the three peers. He also said that relative to those peers, Starbucks’ scores on a variety of metrics such as taste, speed, quality, and brand trust have all improved; its biggest relative weakness is price. It hasn’t been fun owning Starbucks since late August, as concerns about the health of the consumer have crushed the stock and many other restaurant names. But this update suggests the underlying business hasn’t been as bad as the stock. The other Starbucks news we’re monitoring is, of course, the Financial Times report that the company has explored an acquisition of Chipotle . That’s the principal reason why shares are down about 4% and trading below $90 apiece for the first time since March. As Jim said on the Morning Meeting, we’re not sure whether a deal would actually happen. The stock otherwise had looked interesting to us, but for now, we wait. Amazon unveiled three new premium Alexa tablets , priced between $230 and $550, as it phases out its budget-friendly Fire lineup. Available for preorder now and shipping Oct. 14, the devices feature improved performance, AI capabilities, and deeper integration with smart assistant Alexa, including tools that let users shop directly from content on their screens. The launch reflects Amazon’s broader push under CEO Andy Jassy to make its devices business more profitable, moving beyond its longtime strategy of selling hardware at or near cost to drive purchases elsewhere in its ecosystem. The shift also comes as soaring memory prices pressure device makers. Amazon raised prices on Echos , Kindles, and other hardware in August, while Apple and Nintendo have made similar moves . We like Amazon’s push toward higher-end devices that better showcase Alexa’s capabilities and encourage spending across its ecosystem. If Amazon is going to offer a lineup of devices, this is a smart way to position it. Still, hardware is far from the primary reason we own the stock — the story remains about the growth of Amazon Web Services in the AI era, efforts to make its e-commerce business more efficient and profitable, and longer-term bets like nascent satellite internet service Leo. There are no major earnings reports after the closing bell Thursday. We’ll hear from Delta Air Lines on Friday morning. The impact of higher fuel prices on both consumers’ appetite for travel and the company’s bottom line will be in focus. “While demand remains healthy, airlines likely had limited ability to offset the full 3Q fuel spike through pricing given a good chunk of the quarter would’ve already been booked,” analysts at Bernstein wrote to clients this week. A key question: How much will Delta’s ownership of its own refinery help them navigate this pressure? Shares of Delta are down more than 10% since the Aug. 5 close, which is the day when WTI crude began to march higher after a nearly two-week slide. On the economic data side of things Friday, the market will be focused on the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment survey for October. That’s due out at 10 a.m. ET. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.Read More

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