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- Danish intelligence has warned of a “low but growing risk” that Russia could launch limited strikes or deploy troops into a NATO country in the coming months.
- The assessment comes amid a chorus of warnings from European security officials and lawmakers about Moscow’s willingness to take greater risks after more than four years of war.
- DDIS said Russia is expected to intensify hybrid attacks against NATO, including potentially damaging cyberattacks and sabotage with a high risk of casualties.
Brigadier General Christoph Huber attends a public ceremony to mark the expansion of Germany’s Lithuania military commitment on February 4, 2026 in Kaunas, Lithuania.Paulius Peleckis | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Danish intelligence officials have warned that Russia could launch a “limited” military attack against a NATO member in the coming months, saying the Kremlin appears more willing to take risks after more than four-and-a-half years of war against Ukraine.
The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) on Thursday identified a “low but growing risk” that Russia could carry out isolated strikes with long-range weapons on infrastructure that is critical to the support of Ukraine.
“A limited military attack would be a desperate move on Russia’s part and, like the intensified hybrid attacks, could potentially take place in the coming months,” it wrote in a report.
“The purpose would be to redirect European resources away from supporting Ukraine and to sow division within NATO, should the alliance fail to agree on a collective response.”
The DDIS added that it saw no indications that Russia would launch an outright invasion of a NATO country, although it said it could not rule this out.
Russia could also deploy a limited number of troops, possibly without national insignia, into NATO countries on its border, DDIS said. However, it said that such a build-up would be difficult to conceal and take several months to prepare.
The new threat assessment joins a chorus of Russia warnings from top European security officials and lawmakers in recent days.
NATO members that border Russia include Finland, Norway and Poland, as well as the Baltic states of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania.
Poland’s government on Thursday said a blaze at a Starlink ground station in the country was an act of sabotage aimed at disrupting internet services, including for Ukraine’s military.
Poland’s deputy prime minister, Krzysztof Gawkowski, said it had not yet been established who was responsible for the fire, but “many signs suggest this aligns with Russia’s new doctrine of attack,” according to Reuters.
A spokesperson for Russia’s Embassy in London was not immediately available to comment when contacted by CNBC. The Kremlin has previously denied involvement in similar incidents.
Denmark’s intelligence also warned that Russia will intensify its hybrid war by carrying out more attacks against the West and NATO, “with greater consequences for the targeted countries than in the past.”
These could include major cyberattacks that seriously damage vital societal functions as well as sabotage attacks with a high risk of casualties, DDIS said.
