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July 12, 2026

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What does BN’s landslide victory in Johor polls mean for PM Anwar, Malaysia’s political landscape?

Barisan Nasional’s sweeping victory in the Johor state election has strengthened its hand within Malaysia’s unity government, while exposing cracks in Pakatan Harapan’s traditional support base, say analysts.

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JOHOR BAHRU: Barisan Nasional’s (BN) commanding win in the Johor state polls has boosted the coalition’s leverage within Malaysia’s federal unity government, while exposing deeper challenges for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and his Pakatan Harapan (PH) bloc, say analysts.

While PH’s disappointing showing in the Saturday (Jul 11) state election piles fresh pressure on Anwar, experts say it also shows how its once-reliable ethnic minority vote base is no longer assured – raising the stakes for the crucial Negeri Sembilan state polls in the coming weeks.

Both BN and PH are rivals in Johor even as they are partners in Anwar’s federal unity government.

BN won 48 out of 56 seats in the Johor state assembly, an increase of eight from the 2022 state polls. PH won the remaining eight seats, losing four from its previous tally of 12.

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Barisan Nasional (BN) chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi (third from left) and Johor BN chairman Onn Hafiz Ghazi (second from right in foreground) raise their hands in celebration as unofficial results indicate that BN has won Johor’s 16th state election on Jul 11, 2026. (Photo: CNA/Zamzahuri Abas)

“BN’s landslide victory strengthens UMNO’s (United Malays National Organisation) bargaining position within the federal government, while Pakatan Harapan may come under greater pressure,” socio-political analyst Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya told CNA.

UMNO is the dominant party within BN.

“Anwar and PH will need to quickly improve their strategy, voter mobilisation, and response to cost-of-living concerns,” he added.

WHAT WENT RIGHT FOR BARISAN NASIONAL?

Analysts said BN’s resounding win was driven by the star power of its de facto chief minister candidate Onn Hafiz Ghazi, coupled with weaknesses and divisions among its opponents.

Since becoming Johor’s chief minister in 2022, Onn Hafiz has built a reputation as a results-oriented administrator.

Johor recorded Malaysia’s fastest economic growth by state in 2025, with gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by 8 per cent, well above the national average of 5.2 per cent.

The state also attracted a record RM110 billion (US$26 billion) in approved investments, surpassing both Selangor and Kuala Lumpur.

Beyond the economic indicators, analysts said the 47-year-old cultivated an image as a hands-on leader by regularly engaging residents and personally overseeing efforts to address longstanding issues, including traffic congestion at the Johor-Singapore Causeway and road maintenance.

“Onn Hafiz was the key factor behind the victory, having successfully projected an image of stability, development and new-generation leadership,” said Awang Azman.

Johor Barisan Nasional chairman Onn Hafiz Ghazi takes a selfie with a Barisan Nasional supporter during a campaign trail in Kulai, Johor on Jul 8, 2026. (Photo: CNA/Zamzahuri Abas)

The endorsement was reflected in Onn Hafiz’s own result. He retained the Machap state seat with a majority of 15,375 votes, more than double the 6,543-vote margin he secured in 2022.

Azmi Hassan, a senior fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, said Onn Hafiz also demonstrated political confidence during the campaign by openly challenging Anwar on issues such as greater fiscal autonomy for Johor.

He also pressed Putrajaya to expedite major infrastructure projects, including the proposed Elevated Autonomous Rapid Transit (E-ART) system.

“Onn Hafiz showed he was willing to take on Anwar, who campaigned extensively in Johor,” Azmi told CNA.

Supporters of Barisan Nasional (BN) gather to watch the live election results of Johor’s 16th state election at the Johor UMNO Liaison Committee building in Johor Bahru on Jul 11, 2026. (Photo: CNA/Zamzahuri Abas)

Analysts said BN also benefited from the absence of a credible challenge in Johor’s Malay-majority constituencies, which make up about three-quarters of the state’s seats.

They pointed to mounting tensions within the Perikatan Nasional (PN) opposition coalition, where its two largest component parties – Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) – entered the election divided over their future cooperation despite contesting under the same coalition banner.

The disunity was evident throughout the campaign.

PAS urged its supporters to back BN in constituencies where PN was not fielding candidates, while Bersatu president and former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin told CNA that such a directive “did not make sense”.

As a result,PN failed to mount a serious challenge, allowing BN’s lynchpin party UMNO to reclaim the three seats PN had previously held – Bukit Kepong, Maharani and Endau, said analysts.

“The stars aligned for Onn Hafiz and BN to do well in the Malay areas, and this was evident in the higher turnout in these seats, which shows that the BN machinery was in full flow to galvanise support,” James Chin, a professor of Asian Studies at the University of Tasmania, told CNA.

The average overall turnout for the polls was 68.73 per cent, but UMNO-dominant areas such as Semarang, Sri Medan and Sedili recorded turnout upwards of 70 per cent.

Conversely, analysts said that PH’s dismal showing was underlined by a lower turnout in areas where ethnic minorities form the largest block of voters, such as Perling, Tangkak and Bekok where turnout was all less than 60 per cent.

Malaysian Prime Minister and Pakatan Harapan (PH) chairman Anwar Ibrahim delivers a speech during the coalition’s “Grand Finale” rally in Johor Bahru on Jul 9, 2026. (Photo: CNA/Fadza Ishak)

Chin said: “This suggested that many of the Chinese voters did not come out to vote, and likely they are disillusioned with PH and want to punish DAP (Democratic Action Party).”

DAP is a key component party in PH and is long recognised as a champion for ethnic minorities in Malaysia.

Its poor showing in Johor came after another setback in the recent Sabah state election, where the party failed to win any of the seats it contested. It had held six seats in Sabah before the election.

WHAT WENT WRONG FOR PH AND OTHER PARTIES?

BN’s triumph in Johor was also shaped by the struggles of its rivals, with PH losing ground among key voter groups and other parties failing to make significant inroads.

PH remains Johor’s largest opposition bloc, although its representation in the state assembly is now reduced to eight seats from 12.

Analysts said the losses were particularly damaging because several seats long regarded as DAP strongholds fell to BN’s minority-based component parties – the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) and the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC).

MCA wrested Tangkak, Jementah and Johor Jaya from DAP, while MIC captured Perling.

“It is clear that some Chinese and Indian voters have become sufficiently frustrated with PH that they are now willing to back MCA and MIC,” said Azmi from the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research.

“What we saw in Sabah appears to have spread to Peninsular Malaysia.”

Lim Kit Siang (left), founding stalwart of the Democratic Action Party, campaigning in the Perling seat during the 2026 Johor state election campaign. (Photo: Facebook/Liew Chin Tong)

Following Saturday’s result, MCA now holds eight seats in the Johor state assembly compared with DAP’s six, a symbolic reversal in a state where DAP has steadily expanded its influence since 2008 under the stewardship of veteran leader Lim Kit Siang.

Chin from the University of Tasmania said the outcome raises difficult questions about DAP’s standing as Malaysia’s principal political voice for ethnic minorities.

“DAP even brought Lim Kit Siang back onto the campaign trail, but the message from the results is that its honeymoon with Chinese voters is well and truly over,” he said.

Azmi described the outcome as “a significant blow” for PH, arguing that the coalition could no longer rely on ethnic minority voters as its dependable electoral base.

MUDA acting president Amira Aisya (left) introduces Rashifa Aljunied as the party’s candidate for Puteri Wangsa in the upcoming Johor state election. Amira won the seat for MUDA in 2022. (Photo: Instagram/@amiraaisya)

PH’s only consolation was clinching Puteri Wangsa from the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (MUDA), where Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) candidate Maszlee Malik secured victory. The Anwar-ledPKR is a component party of PH.

The win ensured PKR retained a foothold in the Johor assembly after its candidate Arthur Chiong lost Bukit Batu to MIC’s Kumaran Ramakrishnan.

For PN, analysts said the result carried mixed implications.

They said that while PAS lost its lone Johor seat of Maharani to UMNO, the Islamist party’s broader support base remains concentrated in the Malay heartland and northern states, limiting the longer-term impact of its loss on Saturday.

Perikatan Nasional’s Bukit Kepong candidate Sahruddin Jamal (left) at a walkabout in Pekan Grisek, Muar on Jun 30, 2026. (Photo: CNA/Zamzahuri Abas)

Bersatu, however, emerged as the bigger loser. Its candidate Sahruddin Jamal was defeated in Bukit Kepong, a constituency within Pagoh, the political stronghold of party president and former Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin.

“Bersatu has lost a key seat, and it will be difficult for Muhyiddin and the party to recover from this setback,” Azmi said.

For smaller parties, the Johor election was a sobering reality check.

Youth-based MUDA lost its only state seat, Puteri Wangsa, dealing a setback to its efforts to build a grassroots presence beyond its urban support base.

Analysts said the party now needs to demonstrate it can develop beyond the personal appeal of former party president Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman, who remains the MP for Muar.

Debutant Parti Bersama Malaysia (Bersama) fared even worse, forfeiting its election deposit in all 15 seats it contested after polling between 3 and 6 per cent of the vote, well short of the 12.5 per cent threshold required to retain the deposit.

Founded by former PKR leaders Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, Bersama failed to emerge as a meaningful alternative for PH supporters or significantly split the opposition vote.

Analysts earlier said that Bersama is likely to appeal to voters in urban constituencies, positioning itself as a reformist party and a disruptor to PH’s support.

Still, analysts said PH’s poor performance suggests there is still political space for parties such as MUDA and Bersama to appeal to urban and ethnic minority voters if they can develop a clearer identity.

“There’s still a market for parties on the left side of the political divide,” geopolitical consultant Adib Zalkapli of Viewfinder Global Affairs told CNA.

“Whether they recover will depend on how they reposition themselves after the Johor election.”

WHAT’S NEXT?

The Johor election has been seen as a test of the relationship between BN and PH, but leaders from both coalitions have said that the outcome will not affect their cooperation in the federal unity government.

Speaking to reporters before official results were announced on Saturday, BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said the coalition will continue to cooperate with Anwar’s unity government for political stability and Malaysians’ well-being.

Similarly, PKR election director Amirudin Shari said that the unity government’s commitment to remain “intact until the end of its term” remains unchanged. Anwar is the president of PKR.

Even so, Awang Azman of Universiti Malaya (UM) said that BN’s landslide victory in Johor would strengthen UMNO’s bargaining position within the federal government while increasing pressure on PH.

At the same time, Azmi from the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research said tensions between BN and PH could intensify.

He pointed to the spat between DAP deputy chairman Nga Kor Ming and BN secretary-general Zambry Abdul Kadir, which surfaced during the Johor election campaign.

Minister of Housing and Local Government Nga Kor Ming speaking at the Malaysia Economic Forum held at the Kuala Lumpur Convention Centre on Feb 5, 2026. (Photo: CNA/Fadza Ishak)

Nga, who is also minister of housing and local government, had accused the higher education ministry of being “slow like turtle” over allowing holders of the Unified Examination Certificate (UEC) to enter public universities, a long-standing issue sensitive to the ethnic Chinese community.

Zambry, who is the higher education minister, then said Nga’s remark was an “irresponsible statement” by a fellow cabinet member.

UEC is awarded by independent Chinese-medium schools in Malaysia. While it is recognised by many top international universities and local private colleges, it is not recognised by the Malaysian government for entry into public universities or the civil service.

During the Johor election campaign, Nga had also earlier said that he would resign from his party post if BN won more than 40 seats in the Johor polls.

Nga has since sought to clarify that his resignation pledge was conditional on former prime minister Najib Razak being released without serving a sentence commensurate with his offences.

Following BN’s resounding victory, UMNO Youth chief Akmal Saleh took to Facebook to urge the DAP deputy chairman to honour his promise, adding that he was prepared to “help draft the resignation letter”.

“The stability (of the unity government) will depend on the leadership discipline of Zahid Hamidi and Anwar Ibrahim in separating state-level competition from federal cooperation,” Awang Azman told CNA.

Analysts said that all eyes will now be on whether PH and Anwar can recover in Negeri Sembilan, framing it as the “next major test” that could determine the timeline for the next general election, which is due by February 2028.

“PH has lost its momentum while UMNO has momentum for Negeri Sembilan and Melaka. Unless he (Anwar) can reverse the result of Negeri Sembilan amid the royal dispute, he may be in trouble,” said Chin of the University of Tasmania.

Melaka state polls are due by early 2027, but CNA previously reported that BN, which rules the state government, could call for an election in the second half of 2026.

Unlike in Johor, Negeri Sembilan is jointly run by BN and PH, replicating the power-sharing model of the federal unity government.

The upcoming Negeri Sembilan election will also take place against the backdrop of an ongoing dispute involving the state’s royal institution, which has also strained ties between BN and PH.

Its 36-seat assembly now comprises 17 assemblypersons from PH, 14 from UMNO and five from PN.

BN’s Zahid has said that it will be contesting the election on its own after PH declared it would field candidates in all 36 seats.

Adib of Viewfinder said that the timing of Malaysia’s next general election may depend on how PH fares in the state.

“If PH does not do well in Negeri Sembilan or loses the state to BN, we can expect the general election to be held only next year just to make sure BN’s momentum and the excitement generated by the state elections have faded,” he said.