World stocks pause after rally as focus turns to Warsh
The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, June 30, 2026. REUTERS/staff
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MILAN, July 1 : World stocks edged lower on the first day of the third quarter on Wednesday after a strong rally, as investors awaited remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, while softer euro zone inflation cooled bets on further interest rate hikes.
Oil prices stayed near pre-war levels as investors weighed signs that contacts between Iran and Washington aimed at reaching a final deal to end their conflict were continuing.
Traders also watched for possible Japanese intervention after the yen hit fresh 40-year lows against the dollar.
The MSCI World Price Index slipped 0.1 per cent in European afternoon trade after posting its strongest quarter in around six years, up 13 per cent on rallying chipmakers and tech stocks.
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U.S. futures and European shares declined slightly.
“Iran is no longer a problem. There is no peace, but there is no war either,” said Carlo Franchini, head of institutional clients at Banca Ifigest, saying he viewed another European Central Bank interest rate hike later this month as unlikely.
Data backed that view. Euro zone inflation eased more than expected in June, further reducing pressure on the ECB to raise rates again after last month’s first hike in nearly three years.
Inflation in the bloc slowed to 2.8 per cent in June from 3.2 per cent in May, coming well below expectations for a 3.0 per cent reading, as food, energy and services price pressures all eased.
Traders marginally pared bets on further tightening after the figures and were pricing in around 23 basis points of additional ECB rate increases by year-end.
Europe’s region-wide STOXX 600 was down 0.3 per cent at 1120 GMT, steadying after a 10 per cent quarterly rise that marked its strongest performance since late 2020, with sentiment towards the region helped in recent weeks by falling energy prices.
“The second quarter GDP data isn’t going to be great. But clearly prospects of the Strait of Hormuz (opening) and lower oil prices is a major positive factor for Europe,” said Kevin Thozet, member of the investment committee at Carmignac.
AWAITING WARSH
Investors will be keen to hear what Warsh says when he appears at the ECB’s annual central banking forum in Portugal for clues on the outlook for U.S. interest rates, ahead of Thursday’s key U.S. jobs data.
Warsh has long been against the Fed providing forward guidance and may give little away on his policy intentions.
Lauren van Biljon, a senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, said underlying inflation trends suggested the Fed may not need to tighten policy further.
“If the energy price shock starts to roll off in the month-on-month inflation numbers, and our U.S. analysts are still pretty confident that shelter and rent are disinflationary factors through to the end of this year, it looks like the Fed will be on hold,” she said.
Futures imply a 33 per cent chance of a Fed rate hike at its meeting later this month, while the probability of a September move is priced at 67 per cent to 88 per cent.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose 4.9 basis points (bps) to 4.471 per cent, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures declined 0.1-0.3 per cent.
Markets paused after Wall Street posted its strongest quarter since 2020, driven by an 88 per cent surge in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.
With earnings season starting in mid-July, investors are banking on strong tech results to justify lofty valuations and continued inflows into the sector.
Goldman Sachs said the consensus is for earnings per share to grow 22 per cent from a year earlier, with AI infrastructure stocks accounting for nearly 60 per cent of that increase.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.6 per cent after surging 37 per cent last quarter, with strong tech demand lifting sentiment among big manufacturers to an eight-year high.
South Korea’s main index fell about 2 per cent, following a 68 per cent quarterly rally driven by AI-fuelled chip demand.
The rise in U.S. yields helped lift the dollar as high as 162.84 yen, a new four-decade high. The climb has drawn threats of intervention from Tokyo, though authorities appear reluctant to act, having spent almost 12 trillion yen ($74 billion) through April and May to little lasting effect.
The euro was down 0.2 per cent at $1.1394.
Germany’s 10-year bond yield, the euro zone benchmark, rose 2 basis points to 2.931 per cent, while its two-year bond yield, more sensitive to rate expectations, was unchanged at 2.532 per cent after the inflation data.
Brent crude was down around 1 per cent at $72.27 a barrel, reversing earlier gains, while gold was steady, trading slightly above $4,000 an ounce after a difficult quarter.
Source: Reuters
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