Skip NavigationMarketsBusinessInvestingTechPoliticsVideoWatchlistInvesting Club
PRO
LivestreamMenuThere’s a familiar look returning to the market leaders, and this time it isn’t coming from the usual suspects. While much of the conversation around the “Magnificent Seven” has centered on Nvidia’s $5 trillion valuation or Apple’s new highs, one member of the group has quietly been putting together one of the strongest technical setups on the board. It’s a known fact, you can’t spell “amazing” without AMZN . In a market where leadership has rotated, stalled, and rotated again, Amazon is beginning to look like the next stock ready to reclaim the spotlight. The e-commerce and cloud computing giant spent much of the last two years digesting massive gains, but the consolidation appears to be resolving higher. Shares have pushed back toward their highs with improving relative strength, strong momentum buy signals, and investors once again warming to the idea that Amazon may be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the next phase of the artificial intelligence buildout. The charts are speaking loudly, and to this technician, it sounds a lot like an opportunity with great risk/reward set-ups worth exploring. The setup Let’s break it down over multiple time frames to demonstrate the potential upward move to come. The near-term First, we show the significance of recent price action by examining the one-year daily chart. Over the near term, price has formed an inverted head-and-shoulders reversal pattern beneath prior resistance – or as we like to call it, the neckline. The stock just gapped above this resistance level and closed above its 50-day moving average. This is the momentum we crave. Speaking of momentum, we have also seen a bullish divergence in its RSI from the left shoulder to its lows in the pattern. While the stock made new lows, momentum was turning — another positive for the bulls. Adding to the positive thesis was a bullish MACD crossover buy signal that occurred just as the stock turned higher from its recent lows. The longer-term Let’s break down the five-year weekly chart. As a shareholder, and seeing it’s a core holding in my personal portfolio, my true focus is that extended time frame. When backing charts out to a longer time horizon we truly see the significance and power of the trend. On this five-year weekly, we see that shares have had a substantial uptrend before consolidating under its 1.618 Fibonacci extension levels. Let me explain Using the November 2021 peak down to the January 2023 trough as anchors, we established Fibonacci targets of ~$254 (1.618) and ~$360 (2.618) once it broke out to new highs in late 2023. The first target was achieved as shares halted just below that 1.618 extension not once, but three times. Now we have eclipsed the mark again. From a momentum perspective, RSI has painted a clear picture over the past five years. The bullish divergence from 2021-2023 predating the trend change. We are now seeing momentum confirm the recent move with conditions trending in the right direction and nowhere near overbought conditions – meaning we have room to run. Lastly let’s look at it on a relative basis and compare it to the Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) . The last time AMZN/XLY broke above the 50-period moving average, AMZN ran ~82% to its peak before consolidating and digesting much of those gains. Now, we see another break above the 50-period relative strength moving average with a potential retest from above as new support, which bolsters the narrative that AMZN is outperforming its discretionary peers. The trade For short-term traders, use a level just below the recent gap and prior resistance around $245 as your stop. Upside targets to $270 should be easily achieved. That takes shares just below the recent highs given the breakout. For longer-term investors, the trend is your friend. The weekly candle is moving above resistance, but we need confirmation that it can hold this level. If it does, as I expect, our longer-term Fibonacci-based upside target is $360. The downside risk to monitor is any break below that longer-term uptrend around $220. If it breaks the longer trend, it may be time to re-evaluate the stock. Overall, Amazon is giving both the short-term trader and longer-term investor a fresh opportunity to deliver profits to your door. —Jay Woods, CMT with Chase Games DISCLOSURES: Amazon owned personally and by family All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.Read More
About The Author
