The Franco-German partnership reached a real high point this week with several joint ministerial meetings and a total of four meetings between Chancellor Friedrich Merz and President Emmanuel Macron.
The venue on Friday was particularly symbolic: Augustusburg Palace in Brühl, western Germany, where President Charles de Gaulle and Chancellor Konrad Adenauer laid the foundation for the Franco-German partnership in 1962. Another highlight was Merz’s participation in the parade on France’s National Day, July 14, in Paris. The last time a German chancellor attended was in 2019, when Angela Merkel was in office.
German government spokesperson Steffen Meyer said beforehand that this was a personal honor for the chancellor, and dismissed speculation about a cooling of relations between Merz and Macron: “There is absolutely no question of a cooling of relations; on the contrary, the relationship is very good, and we are continuing to work to ensure that it stays that way.”
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But it’s not quite that simple, believes Stefan Seidendorf, deputy director of the German-French Institute in Ludwigsburg.
“The time since Merz took office has shown that there are indeed very significant differences between France and Germany and that this cooperation is not a sure thing — rather, it requires hard work,” he told DW.
There are differences, for example, in energy policy — Germany’s phase-out of nuclear power versus France’s pro-nuclear stance — or in European fiscal policy.
Cooperation is, however, being stepped up in the area of nuclear deterrence: In Berlin, there is a growing sense that the United States’ nuclear protection is becoming unreliable, and, for the first time ever, German troops are expected to participate in a French nuclear exercise this fall.
This year’s Bastille Day parade, the largest since Macron took office in 2017, was held under the theme “Europe’s strategic awakening.” Macron wanted to send a clear signal in support of continued aid to Ukraine and for greater European self-confidence in the face of the United States under Donald Trump.
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Regarding Russia’s war against Ukraine, Germany has now, after some initial hesitation, agreed to participate in the first military exercises of the so-called “coalition of the willing,” a group of about 35 countries that wants to support Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire with Russia. The first exercises are scheduled to take place in Poland.
Failed Franco-German projects
In recent weeks, there has been mostly negative news about Franco-German relations: First, the failure of major Franco-German defense projects — in addition to the joint FCAS fighter jet project, which has been officially scrapped, the MGCS tank project also appears to be hanging in the balance. Rheinmetall, the German company involved, has called the project into question.
And then, in early July, right-wing populist Marine Le Pen announced her candidacy for the presidential election in the spring of 2027, in which Macron will no longer be eligible to run. Le Pen has already tried three times, losing twice to Macron in a runoff vote. This time, some polls say, she has a chance of becoming the next French president. That would be a nightmare for the German government, which believes that she stands for nationalism rather than greater European integration.
The question of what would happen if Marine Le Pen, of the right-wing National Rally (RN), were to win the election next spring hangs over Franco-German relations.
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Jacob Ross, France expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations, says: “First of all, it would mean an immediate loss of trust — in government administrations and in political cooperation — which would lead to a breakdown in many areas where cooperation currently takes place very naturally and organically.”
But Ross does not believe this would spell the end of the Franco-German Friendship Treaty: “It would certainly be a very severe stress test for this treaty between Germany and France, as well as for European integration. However, I do not rule out the possibility that a certain pragmatism will take hold, that the RN will have to deviate from the extreme demands and promises in its platform, and that it will then come to its senses once it assumes responsibility in government offices.”
Stefan Seidendorf of the Franco-German Institute also points out that Franco-German relations are about much more than just politics. In the event of a Le Pen election victory, “the question arises with every one of these contacts — in government, business, civil society, city partnerships, and student exchanges — as to how best to proceed.”
This article has been translated from German.
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