Johor and Melaka could get up to 40% less rainfall during Northeast Monsoon due to El Nino: MetMalaysia
The Northeast Monsoon season in Malaysia typically begins in late October or early November and ends in late March.
Heavy rain in Kuala Lumpur on Dec 12, 2025. (File Photo: AFP/Mohd Rasfan)
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KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s southern states Johor and Melaka could get between 20 per cent and 40 per cent less rainfall as the country enters the Northeast Monsoon season later this year because of the El Nino phenomenon, according to meteorological department MetMalaysia.
Speaking on Bernama TV’s Ruang Bicara television programme “El Nino: Is Malaysia Ready?”, MetMalaysia Director-General Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip said on Monday (Jul 27) that the east coast of Sabah could also experience a decline in rainfall due to its location closer to the Pacific Ocean, as compared to the rest of Malaysia.
“Based on the information we have and rainfall projections six months ahead, we do not expect significant effects on the east coast (of Peninsular Malaysia) until the end of the year,” he said, as quoted by national news agency Bernama.
The Northeast Monsoon season in Malaysia typically begins in late October or early November and ends in late March, with Peninsular Malaysia’s east coast states – referring to Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang – usually receiving the highest rainfall in November and December, Hisham added.
However, the El Nino effects are expected to become more pronounced towards the end of the monsoon season before peaking early next year.
Temperatures exceeding 35 °C could occur between February and May next year across the country and possibly extend into June, he added.
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According to Hisham, areas that typically experience high temperatures during very strong El Nino episodes include Perlis, Kedah, northern Perak, inland areas of Kelantan and parts of inland Pahang.
El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon that warms sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, causing changes in wind, atmospheric pressure and rainfall patterns around the world.
Early this month, MetMalaysia forecast a super El Nino to develop in November and last until January next year, bringing hotter weather, reduced rainfall and a risk of transboundary haze.
A super El Nino refers to an exceptionally intense version of El Nino in which surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rise by 2°C or more.
Hisham said on Monday that an analysis of Malaysia’s temperatures since the 1980s showed an increase of 0.19°C per decade due to global warming, while a strong El Nino could raise temperatures by up to 0.7°C above normal.
“If this El Nino reaches the very strong level that is expected, the country’s highest temperature could surpass the record of 40.1°C recorded on Apr 9, 1998, with a potential temperature surge occurring between March and May 2027,” he said, as quoted by Bernama.
MetMalaysia’s Deputy Director-General of Operations Ambun Dindang told local broadcaster Berita RTM early this month that previous strong El Nino episodes coincided with some of the country’s highest recorded temperatures, including 40.1°C in Chuping, Perlis in April 1998 and 39.3°C in Batu Embun, Perak in 2016.
Malaysia saw strong El Nino episodes recorded in 1997 to 1998 and 2015 to 2016, according to MetMalaysia’s National Climate Centre Director Ahmad Fairudz Jamaluddin.
During the super El Nino phenomenon in 2015, more than 250 schools in northern Peninsular Malaysia had to be temporarily closed due to extreme daily temperatures exceeding 37°C, said Ahmad Fairudz.
Water level at Johor’s Linggiu Reservoir that provides water to Singapore also fell to about 54.5 per cent, the lowest in its 20-year history then.
Hisham cautioned that reduced rainfall and rising temperatures could affect agricultural and livestock production, lower water levels in reservoirs and dams and increase the risk of forest fires and transboundary haze.
To mitigate the impact of dry weather, Hisham said that MetMalaysia is providing technical advice to support cloud-seeding operations aimed at increasing water levels in catchment areas, although such measures can only be carried out when weather conditions are suitable.
“El Nino cannot be controlled because it is a natural phenomenon. What we at MetMalaysia can do is provide information on the conditions that are expected to occur,” he said on Monday, as quoted by Bernama.
Separately, Malaysia’s economy minister Akmal Nasrullah Mohd Nasir said on Monday that an extreme El Nino weather could drive up Malaysia’s electricity consumption and disrupt food supply chains, adding to inflationary pressures.
Although peak electricity demand has risen by about 2.5 gigawatts, Akmal said that hotter weather could further increase energy demand, particularly from households as the use of cooling equipment rises, reported media platform The Edge.
“Changes in weather conditions are another area that we need to monitor closely,” he said at the ministry’s monthly assembly.
“Any disruption to the supply food chain would have implications for inflation and related issues.”
Source: Agencies/ia(ao)
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