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LivestreamMenuThere’s a confluence of events taking place that could make or break the bull market. The Federal Reserve will announce its latest monetary policy decision at 2 p.m. ET, with a news conference by Chairman Kevin Warsh to follow at 2:30 p.m. ET. On top of that, hyperscalers Meta Platforms and Microsoft are scheduled to report earnings after the bell Wednesday, followed by Amazon and Apple on Thursday. This all takes place as global markets continue to juggle rising tensions between Iran and the U.S. Below is a breakdown of what traders, analysts and strategists are looking for in these events, and how they think the stock market might react. The Fed: Itching for a rate hike? The Fed is widely expected to keep its benchmark overnight lending rate unchanged, at 3.50% to 3.75%. What it does later in the year may be a different story. Fed funds futures are currently pricing in an 80% chance that the central bank will increase rates by at least a quarter percentage point in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. That comes as energy prices remain elevated due to the U.S.-Iran war — raising fears that consumer goods prices could increase. Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of One Point BFG Wealth Partners, said in a note that he expects at least some Fed officials to argue in favor of a rate hike on Wednesday. “Going through the voters and based on recent speeches, I assume [Dallas Fed President] Lorie Logan and [Cleveland Fed President] Beth Hammack will dissent and argue for a rate hike. Maybe [Minneapolis Fed President] Neel Kashkari too,” he wrote. Fed Governor Christopher Waller “based his call for a rate hike on hotter than expected June CPI and we didn’t get it.” Going forward, if oil prices stay elevated, it may be harder for the Fed to keep policy where it is — even as President Donald Trump again calls for rate cuts . U.S.-Iran war: Tensions and oil prices keep rising Oil prices popped on Wednesday after Trump said the U.S. would retaliate against Iran for attempting a surprise attack on U.S. forces. As of 8:57 a.m. ET, West Texas Intermediate futures traded nearly 7% higher at $84.69 per barrel. International Brent also jumped 7% to $90.01. Year to date, WTI and Brent are up 47% each. Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge doesn’t expect a meaningful easing in crude prices anytime soon. “Investors are looking at Iran as a binary (‘deal’ or ‘no deal’) when in fact the current war will likely continue in perpetuity, with periodic lulls in fighting (a full and final agreement that proves timeless and eternal won’t happen, and so a significant geopolitical risk premium will need to stay embedded in oil),” he wrote to clients. Hyperscaler earnings Earnings will also be a market driver in the next 48 hours, as hyperscalers Microsoft, Meta and Amazon are due to report. Analysts on average expect strong profit growth from all three companies. Yet traders will look for commentary and signals on what these companies have to say about their semiconductor purchases — and whether the recent sell-off in chipmaking stocks is justified. “If the direction of the U.S. Treasury ten-year yield is one key issue facing U.S.-correlated world stock markets, another is the issue of the AI capex arms race and whether the recent sell-off in memory stocks is healthy rotation at the start of the quarter or something more fundamental, namely the market starting to sniff out that a deceleration in hyperscaler capex could be coming earlier than what investors have been assuming,” Jefferies’ trading desk wrote Wednesday. “The biggest risk is a loss of confidence in the AI capex model itself, potentially triggering a reassessment of valuations across the ecosystem.” Apple: Back on top Apple is another megacap set to post earnings over the next 48 hours . The report will come as the iPhone maker reclaimed this week the crown of the most valuable company in the world. Will its upcoming results help Apple keep the throne? AAPL YTD bar AAPL in 2026 Apple shares on Tuesday hit an intraday record of $342.89.Read More
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