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- The month-long U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement is due to expire on Monday.
- Strategic oil reserves in the U.S. have tumbled below 300 million barrels for the first time since the early 1980s.
- Japan’s second-quarter GDP misses expectations on softer domestic demand.
- Trio of Chinese economic data is due on delayed release.
- CNBC Pro: JPMorgan could be the first $1 trillion bank, according to Wells Fargo.
A man waves an Iranian flag before a political billboard at Valiasr Square in central Tehran on August 8, 2026. Hopes for an imminent US-Iran deal to end the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz added to optimism that oil and gas, along with other key products, would again start flowing freely after more than five months of war. But oil prices turned higher ahead of the weekend in the absence of any confirmation of an accord, amid reports that Iran was planning to block US and Israeli ships from the waterway. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP via Getty Images) / Atta Kenare | Afp | Getty Images
Hello, this is Leonie Kidd coming to you from London.
Volatility – like myself – seems to have taken a break over the summer. After a couple of weeks away from the newsroom, markets seem trapped in a holding pattern.
The VIX implied volatility index has dropped to a multi-year low, but it feels like it may not take much to have the market mood swing the other way…
What you need to know today
The fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is due to expire today. A senior White House official, speaking to Politico anonymously, described negotiations between Washington and Tehran as “static.”
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi wrote in a Telegram post that his country has “not made a decision to restart negotiations with the United States,” while Al Jazeera reports that Tehran is working on a separate agreement with Oman to restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
The damage of depletion
Experts are warning that the depletion of U.S. strategic oil reserves could damage the caverns that store oil. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen below 300 million barrels for the first time since it was filled in the early 1980s, according to the Department of Energy. The rapid release of stockpiles in the wake of disruption related to the Iran war is raising the operational risks.
Domestic demand
Japan’s second-quarter GDP has fallen short of forecasts. The economy expanded 1.1% on an annualized basis, missing expectations for 2% growth. Softer domestic demand weighed on export strength, which was boosted by the weaker yen.
Delayed data
The release of much-anticipated economic data from China will be delayed on Monday to accommodate the 100th anniversary ceremony marking President Jiang Zemin’s birth. The data, due at 8:00 a.m. BST, will include July retail sales, industrial production and house prices.
Dimon’s call
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has reportedly held a call with the new U.K. Chancellor John Healey. According to the Financial Times, the Wall Street bank boss used the conversation to lobby the British government against creating a more hostile tax environment for banks.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan could soon be crowned as the first $1 trillion bank. That’s according to Wells Fargo, which said, “JPM’s best-in-class ability to invest for superior growth can not only help JPM surpass the $1T [market] cap milestone but also to reach $2T over est. 7-8 [years],” analyst Mike Mayo said Thursday in a client report.
— Leonie Kidd
And Finally…
Secret outperformer: Dispelling the ‘myths’ about an unloved stock market
European equities have historically struggled to ignite the kind of investor enthusiasm enjoyed by U.S. stocks and certain fast-growing Asian markets. The continent has fewer high-growth companies, shallower capital markets and is thought to have a less compelling long-term earnings growth story.
A spike in governments’ fiscal spending at the beginning of 2025, however, brought the market to life. This year, the story is more nuanced, but the pan-European Stoxx 600 index has proved remarkably resilient.
— Joseph Wilkins
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