The European Commission wants to inject new momentum into its enlargement process, which has seen some candidate countries waiting for decades to join.
Albania, Montenegro, Moldova and Ukraine are currently the frontrunners to join the bloc, with EU officials expressing the hope that Montenegro could do so as early as 2028.
“A larger union is a long-term investment in Europe’s peace, security and prosperity,” Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos told journalists in Strasbourg on October 6.
One key question is how the EU can take in more countries in the near future without becoming harder to run or running the risk of democratic backsliding in new member states.
The Commission’s answer to this question is to simultaneously require candidate countries to meet EU standards and get the bloc itself to reform by removing obstacles in the accession process and protecting its democratic values.
Less unanimity, more qualified majority votes
One of the main stumbling blocks in accession negotiations so far has been the need for unanimous decisions across all 27 members. In the past, individual states have often blocked a candidate’s progress because of bilateral issues.
The delays caused by Hungary’s blocking of Ukraine’s negotiation process are a prominent example.
Now — and not for the first time — the Commission is recommending that member states move away from the principle of unanimity for decisions like the opening of negotiation clusters, replacing it with qualified majority voting.
The unanimity dilemma
“Every cluster that you open is subject to three individual decisions, and every single decision is subject to unanimity. It’s mind-blowing, and I think this clearly needs to go,” a Commission official, who wished to remain anonymous, told journalists on Tuesday.
The catch is that a shift to qualified majority voting would itself require a unanimous decision.
“I have some reservations as to whether there will be unanimous agreement from the member states to move to qualified majority voting,” Tinatin Akhvlediani, head of the enlargement program at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) told DW, pointing to previous attempts to change voting rules that were shot down by member states.
Gradual access to membership benefits
To incentivize reform in candidate countries, the Commission is proposing gradual integration, which means that these countries could be granted some of the benefits of membership before joining — as long as they meet the EU’s criteria.
“Gradual integration is not a substitute for full membership. It is the accelerator for enlargement,” Kos said on Tuesday, underlining that the process would stay merit-based.
This could have a motivational effect on candidate countries, Nina Vujanovic, a research fellow at Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, told DW: “Reforms are important, but it is also important to reward that process a little bit earlier, ahead of accession,” she said.
Earlier access to EU benefits is not entirely new: Montenegro, for example, already participates in the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) even though it is not yet a member.
Addressing geopolitical realities
The Commission now wants to give candidate countries such early access more systematically and link it to strategic alignment.
“This is not something that will be available [to candidate countries] unless they really orient themselves on the EU,” a Commission official told journalists.
Making strategic alignment a condition is new and reflects the EU’s efforts to adjust to the geopolitical tensions members and candidates are facing.
Candidates’ choice: Russia or the EU?
“The EU is trying to keep candidate countries out of the hands of Russia,” Heather Grabbe, a senior fellow at Bruegel, told DW. “Strategic alignment is aimed very squarely at politicians like Aleksandar Vucic in Serbia, who has clearly promoted Russian interests,” she said.
The new procedures would demand alignment not only with the EU’s foreign and security policy, but also with its standards on economic security. “Trading gas with Russia is simply not something that builds trust with the European Union,” said Nina Vujanovic.
The lessons the EU learned from Hungary, Poland
To prevent breaches of democratic rules by new member states, the Commission proposes a 15-year period within which it would be easier to sanction new members by cutting financial support or restricting voting rights.
In an interview with The Guardian and other European media, Commissioner Kos made it clear that the EU had learned its lesson from the democratic backsliding it saw in the past in countries like Poland or Hungary: “No more Viktor Orban. We have to have quicker mechanisms than only Article 7.”
Double standard or necessary protection?
Critics point out that this safeguard would create unequal conditions within the union.
“It is inherently unfair,” says Heather Grabbe. “In the 2040s, why should Montenegro face different conditions than, say, Slovenia?”
Many current candidate countries have a shaky record when it comes to democratic norms, as Tinatin Akhvlediani points out: “They are actually fragile democracies. So, this approach vis-a-vis these countries can be very much justified.”
Experts say that while it might be desirable to apply similarly strict rules to all members, it is not realistically feasible as it would have to be approved unanimously and, as Grabbe says, “it’s very hard to get turkeys to vote for Christmas.”
Although the Commission’s push for new rules in relation to enlargement is likely to move the debate forward, it is ultimately up to member states to decide how much of it becomes reality.
The European Council, which is made up of the heads of state or government of the 27 EU member states, the European Council president and the president of the European Commission, is expected to discuss the proposals at its upcoming meeting on October 15–16.
The outcome of those talks will determine how quickly the Commission’s new enlargement agenda can move forward.
Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan
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