ASEAN leaders gather in Manila with South China Sea, Myanmar in focus
Analysts say it is unlikely ASEAN and China will conclude South China Sea Code of Conduct negotiations by year-end, while Myanmar’s political crisis remains another challenge for the grouping.
A man poses for a photograph in front of the flags of ASEAN member states at the venue of the 49th ASEAN Summit and Related Summits in Manila, the Philippines, on Nov 13, 2026. (Photo: CNA/Ridhwan Siregar)
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MANILA: Southeast Asian leaders will gather in the Philippines this weekend for talks, with analysts expecting limited progress on some of the region’s most contentious issues, including the South China Sea and Myanmar’s political crisis.
The 49th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Leaders’ Summit, taking place from Nov 15 to 17, will bring together leaders of the 11-member bloc under the Philippines’ chairmanship, with regional security, economic resilience and geopolitical competition high on the agenda.
The gathering comes amid rising protectionism, uncertainty over global trade, and growing pressure on Southeast Asian countries to balance competing interests between Washington and Beijing.
US President Donald Trump and Chinese Premier Li Qiang are among the prominent figures expected in Metro Manila, placing Southeast Asia at the centre of diplomatic attention ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in Shenzhen, China, on Nov 18.
But despite the high-profile attendance, analysts say the summit is unlikely to produce major breakthroughs on ASEAN’s most divisive political and security challenges.
“I’d expect a well-run summit with solid economic results, but not much of a breakthrough on the tough political files,” said Andrew Mantong, ASEAN senior researcher at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Indonesia.
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SOUTH CHINA SEA CODE OF CONDUCT
The South China Sea is expected to remain one of the summit’s most closely watched issues, with ASEAN and China facing a year-end target to conclude negotiations on a Code of Conduct for the disputed waters.
The Philippines, this year’s ASEAN chair, said on Thursday (Nov 12) that China and ASEAN have agreed on about 70 per cent of the proposed Code of Conduct, but major issues remain unresolved.
These include the proposed agreement’s scope, legal status and implementation.
Andrew of CSIS said a substantive, legally binding code was unlikely to be completed before the deadline.
“At best we may hear that talks are ‘substantially concluded’,” he said.
Joanne Lin, a senior fellow at ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, concurred, saying the agreement was unlikely to be finalised either during the summit or by the end of 2026.
International relations expert Teuku Rezasyah from the University of Padjadjaran stressed the need to accelerate negotiations, particularly amid what he described as China’s growing willingness to assert its maritime claims.
He called on ASEAN to speed up finalising the Code of Conduct, which has been decades in the making, warning that China was increasingly ready to “flex its muscle”.
China claims sovereignty over most of the South China Sea, overlapping with claims by several Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei.
Indonesia is not a claimant state in the main territorial disputes, but Chinese fishing and coast guard activities have also generated tensions in waters around Indonesia’s North Natuna Sea.
The disputes have long tested ASEAN’s ability to present a united position while maintaining relations with Beijing, the region’s largest trading partner.
MYANMAR’S SITUATION
Myanmar remains another challenge for ASEAN, more than five years after the military seized power in a February 2021 coup.
The bloc has continued to face questions over how to engage Myanmar’s military authorities and whether its Five-Point Consensus, agreed in April 2021, has been implemented effectively.
The framework calls for an immediate cessation of violence, dialogue among all parties, humanitarian assistance and engagement through an ASEAN special envoy.
However, continued fighting and political divisions have complicated efforts to implement the agreement, while ASEAN continues to restrict Myanmar’s political representation at its summits and foreign ministers’ meetings.
Rezasyah identified Myanmar as an issue requiring renewed attention, saying the summit should produce an “additional formula to better deal with Myanmar”.
Any decision to restore Myanmar’s political representation at ASEAN’s highest-level meetings would require consensus among member states.
ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus
Following a 2021 military coup, ASEAN has excluded Myanmar from high-level meetings as it has yet to make meaningful progress on the bloc’s Five-Point Consensus to end hostilities.
During a meeting in April 2021, all ASEAN leaders reached a consensus about the situation in Myanmar.
The five points are:
First, there shall be immediate cessation of violence in Myanmar and all parties shall exercise utmost restraint.
Second, constructive dialogue among all parties concerned shall commence to seek a peaceful solution in the interests of the people.
Third, a special envoy of the ASEAN chair shall facilitate mediation of the dialogue process, with the assistance of the secretary-general of ASEAN.
Fourth, ASEAN shall provide humanitarian assistance through the AHA Centre.
Fifth, the special envoy and delegation shall visit Myanmar to meet with all parties concerned.
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TRANSBOUNDARY HAZE AND SINGAPORE’S UPCOMING CHAIRMANSHIP
Another regional issue that came into focus recently is transboundary haze, with forest and land fires in Indonesia’s Sumatra and Kalimantan regions sending smoke across borders and affecting Singapore and parts of Malaysia.
ASEAN is currently working to establish a coordinating centre in Indonesia to strengthen efforts to prevent and respond to pollution from forest and land fires.
Jakarta could use the meeting to advance efforts to operationalise the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Transboundary Haze Pollution Control, said Andrew of CSIS.
The centre is intended to strengthen regional coordination to prevent and respond to haze pollution, but slow ratification and implementation have hampered its establishment.
“If Indonesia wants others to move, it needs to complete its own process first and show the centre will have real resources, not just an office,” said Andrew.
The Manila gathering will also mark the end of the Philippines’ ASEAN chairmanship, with Singapore taking over in 2027 as the bloc marks its 60th anniversary.
Lin of ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute said the meeting in Manila would let ASEAN leaders assess the Philippines’ chairmanship and consolidate progress.
“We can expect a strong focus on economic resilience, particularly amid growing protectionism, trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions,” she told CNA, adding that continuity is essential to keep economic initiatives and security discussions from losing momentum during the leadership transition.
Source: CNA/ks(ac)
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