Johor polls: Key parties, battlegrounds and issues to watch going into Nomination Day
Nomination Day for Johor’s Jul 11 state election will take place on Jun 27, with political parties and coalitions set to finalise their candidates for all 56 seats ahead of a 14-day campaign period.
Flags of the different political parties and coalitions contesting in the previous Johor state election in March 2022. (File Photo: CNA/ Rashvinjeet S Bedi)
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JOHOR BAHRU: Election campaigning for the Johor state polls will officially kick off on Saturday (Jun 27) following the formal nomination of candidates vying for the hearts and minds of some 2.7 million eligible voters.
The three main coalitions – the governing Barisan Nasional (BN) as well as Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) – is set to formalise their candidates contesting for a spot in Johor’s 56-seat legislative state assembly in the Jul 11 polls.
BN and PH have previously announced plans to contest every seat, while PN is expected to field candidates in 33 constituencies, according to local media, setting the stage for three-cornered fights in parts of the southern state.
Several constituencies could also see four-way contests, with the Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (MUDA) planning to field candidates in four seats and Parti Bersama Malaysia (Bersama) contesting 15.
The nomination process on Saturday is expected to begin at 9am across 56 nomination centres in Johor.
In the 2022 state polls, candidates were required to submit their papers within an hour before returning officers declared the candidates eligible to contest.
While multiple parties and coalitions are entering the race, analysts expect Johor’s election to be shaped primarily by a contest between BN and PH, with smaller parties potentially influencing outcomes in closely fought seats.
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KEY PARTIES AND PERSONALITIES
BN is defending 40 seats in the 56-member assembly, PH holds 12 seats, PN four, while MUDA has one seat.
Although BN and PH are partners in Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s federal unity government, they remain political rivals in Johor, where PH served as the opposition in the state assembly.
Analysts told CNA that while multiple parties are expected to contest, the main battle in Johor is between BN and PH.
“PN is not as strong, PAS is not so strong in Johor,” said political analyst Azizuddin Sani from Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM), referring to the Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS). PAS is a PN component party.
BN is likely to enter the race as a frontrunner, backed by its incumbency advantage, strong grassroots machinery and the popularity of Johor’s caretaker Chief Minister Onn Hafiz Ghazi, said analysts.
The 47-year-old will defend his Machap seat in the upcoming polls.
Onn Hafiz has been placed at the centre of BN’s campaign, with chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi making clear that he will be the face of its election campaign.
Political analyst Awang Azman Awang Pawi of the Universiti Malaya (UM) described Onn Hafiz as “one of the strongest factors in BN’s favour”, saying the election could effectively become a referendum on his leadership style.
“BN will try to frame the election as a comparison between the stability of the existing leadership and the uncertainty of the alternatives (from other parties),” he told CNA.
Meanwhile, Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) warned that the Johor polls “might not be an easy win for BN”, with PH fielding high-profile names such as former education minister Maszlee Malik.
Maszlee, who will contest the Puteri Wangsa state seat, served as Malaysia’s education minister during PH’s first administration under former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad from 2018 to 2020.
He was also a single-term Member of Parliament for Simpang Renggam after winning the constituency in the 2018 general election.
Although Anwar has yet to name PH’s chief minister candidate, Maszlee – who is among the candidates with the biggest profile owing to his previous stint as a Cabinet minister – has emerged as one of the frontrunners for the post, according to local media reports.
In a Facebook post on Tuesday following the announcement of PH’s candidate line-up, Maszlee said that he has accepted a challenge to debate BN’s Onn Hafiz ahead of the state polls, saying that it could serve as a “platform to educate the people and foster a mature political culture”.
Beyond the contest between BN and PH, the upcoming Johor polls also come amid strains within PN, after PAS announced that it has severed its political cooperation with Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu).
PN’s election director Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor said that Bersatu will be contesting the most number of seats in the state polls as compared to other component parties in the coalition, adding that all its candidates would contest under the same logo.
In a Facebook statement on Thursday, PN chairman Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar said that using the PN symbol in the Johor state polls comes with political responsibility.
“Any party entrusted to contest under the PN symbol must take full responsibility for candidate selection, election operations, campaign management and the performance of the seats it contests,” the statement read.
While component parties PAS and Bersatu will contest under the same PN logo, PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man said both parties will campaign separately with their own election machinery.
Each party would deploy its own campaign workers and manage its own election operations, he added, as reported by Utusan Malaysia.
Observers will also be watching how smaller parties such as MUDA and Bersama will challenge PH by fielding candidates in overlapping constituencies.
Bersama – which was relaunched in May by former cabinet ministers Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad and Rafizi Ramli after they left Anwar’s Parti Keadilan Rakyat – plans to contest 15 seats.
Nik Nazmi has described the Johor election as a testing ground for the party, saying its initial benchmark is to avoid losing its election deposits.
While Bersama is unlikely to win many seats, even a few hundred votes could be enough to alter outcomes in marginal constituencies, said Awang Azman of UM.
SEATS TO WATCH
Among the key battlegrounds in the Johor polls are the marginal seats of Bukit Batu, Bukit Pasir, Parit Yaani, Tangkak, Bukit Kepong and Jementah, where winning margins were among the narrowest in the 2022 state election, analysts said.
In the Bukit Batu constituency in the Kulai area, PH had won only with a majority of 137 votes in a four-cornered fight against BN, PN and Parti Warisan.
In the Bukit Pasir constituency, BN won with a majority of only 198 votes.
“These seats can change hands with only small shifts in turnout, vote transfers or the emergence of another candidate,” said Awang Azman.
In these marginal seats, a candidate who obtains only 35 to 40 per cent of the vote can win, he added.
The main battlegrounds could also likely be mixed and semi-urban constituencies where BN, PH and PN each possess some support base, said Syaza of IIUM, identifying constituencies like Kempas, Bukit Permai and Tiram.
“They are worth watching because they combine significant Malay and non-Malay populations,” she said.
Awang Azman said the Tiram seat, for instance, will test how far the Democratic Action Party’s (DAP) new candidate – Nor Zulaila Abdul Ghani – can retain the party’s traditional support in the constituency. DAP is a PH component party.
In the 2022 state polls, 21 of the 56 seats had changed hands, in what local news outlet Malay Mail reported to be a wave that wiped out PH’s 2018 breakthrough and handed BN a commanding comeback.
The 21 constituencies include Pemanis, Kemelah, Tenang, Gambir, Parit Yaani and Maharani.
The 21 seats that sit on the volatile border between BN’s rural strongholds and PH’s urban bases are shaping up to be the battlegrounds that decide the next state government, reported Malay Mail.
The Gambir seat, which was once won by Bersatu president and former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin under the PH banner, reverted to BN in 2022. Meanwhile, BN flipped the Parit Yaani seat after unseating Johor PH chairman Aminolhuda Hassan.
Analysts also highlighted the Puteri Wangsa seat to be one of the most closely watched contests, as it will measure whether youth politics still has its own appeal or whether the support has returned to PH, BN or PN.
It is currently held by Amira Aisya Abdul Aziz of MUDA, in what the party has described to be a special place in its history as it was where it secured its first electoral victory in 2022.
Amira, who is the party’s president, has announced that she will not defend the state seat, with newcomer Rashifa Aljunied named as MUDA’s candidate instead.
Originally allocated to Amanah, the seat was loaned to MUDA under a political agreement during the 2022 Johor election. Currently, Rashifa is set to face PH’s Maszlee and BN’s Teo Chia Ling. Bersama has said that it will field a candidate there.
Awang Azman of UM predicts the seat to be a “very unpredictable four-cornered fight” if PN also enters the race.
He stressed that the impact of vote-splitting would depend on the type of seats.
In urban or mixed seats, the participation of MUDA or new reformist parties could carry a greater risk of splitting PH’s vote. Meanwhile, in Malay-majority seats, overlap among PN, new Malay parties and BN would tend to split the Malay votes.
Syaza said that it will likely be a “straightforward fight” between BN and PN in these areas but Awang Azman noted that BN has an advantage because its election machinery and core voters are more organised.
KEY ISSUES
Voter turnout and bread-and-butter issues are expected to be key factors in the Johor polls and dominate the election campaign.
While BN benefitted from a low turnout of just 54.9 per cent in the 2022 state polls held during the COVID-19 pandemic, analysts say the political environment has changed.
Azizuddin of UUM expects turnout to remain lower than at a general election but to exceed 2022 levels, forecasting participation of at least 60 per cent.
“If there is a 70 per cent turnout rate, there is a good potential that PH could benefit,” he told CNA.
And while some parties are expected to campaign on major development initiatives such as the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (JSSEZ) and the Rapid Transit System (RTS) Link, analysts say voters are likely to be more concerned with everyday issues such as wages, housing affordability and cost of living.
Awang Azman said that both the JSSEZ and RTS developments would be a “major narrative assets” for BN, which is likely to frame them as evidence of Johor’s role as Malaysia’s economic gateway to Singapore.
Syaza, meanwhile, said PH may instead emphasise the importance of “state-federal cooperation” in developing these projects.
“Middle-class and urban voters are looking at what voters can offer Johoreans in terms of economic benefits over the next five years,” said Azizuddin.
For Awang Azman of UM, the election is not merely a contest between BN, PH and PN but a contest between competitive narratives of stability and change, and a test whether Johor’s economic progress is genuinely reaching the daily lives of ordinary people.
“BN’s campaign will likely highlight growth, investment and stability while PH would argue that growth has not translated into higher wages, affordable housing and a more comfortable life … with many Johoreans still choosing to work in Singapore,” he told CNA.
Beyond Johor, analysts say the election will provide an early indication of Malaysia’s political landscape ahead of other state polls and the next general election.
For BN, the election will test whether the coalition can defend or even increase vote shares among conservative Malays following Zahid’s claim that a Johor victory could trigger a nationwide “blue wave” comeback, said Syaza. Blue is BN’s official colour and is used in its logo.
But in an interview with CNA, Onn Hafiz had said that what happens in Johor does not necessarily have an impact at the national level, noting the different issues faced.
“While the election outcome here may provide some indication, my main focus is on winning the Johor state election,” he told CNA.
As for Anwar’s PH coalition, Syaza said that the Johor polls will show whether voters have “fled” to newer parties like Bersama and how the coalition performs in the urban seats.
Meanwhile, the outcome could also offer fresh insight into PN’s standing following recent internal tensions, said Awang Azman of UM.
“If PN loses Bukit Kepong and Maharani or fails to challenge BN in the Malay seats, it would indicate that PN’s political space in the southern peninsula is shrinking,” he told CNA.
But if PN secures several seats due to BN-PH vote splitting, PN could claim that it remains relevant as a viable third force despite changes in leadership.
More broadly, Syaza said the election could reshape political alliances and show “who will be friends and foes” ahead of future polls.
“Johor is a testing ground,” she told CNA. “Once the fragmentation becomes clear, maybe we will see alignment and re-alignment for other elections.”
Agreeing, Awang Azman said that if no party appears to be dominant and many seats are won with less than 40 per cent of the votes, it would suggest that the next general election is likely to be highly fragmented.
“The Johor polls are a laboratory for a bigger question – is Malaysia returning to the politics of one dominant coalition, or moving towards a multi-coalition system with continuous three-cornered contests,” he told CNA.
Source: CNA/ia(as)
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