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Getty ImagesWho will form New Zealand’s next government remains uncertain after the country’s national election on Saturday, with final results not due for another couple of weeks.
It’s the tightest vote that the country has seen in years, with the incumbent National Party and opposition Labour Party neck-and-neck in terms of party vote share.
In terms of seats, a National-led conservative coalition, which includes the Act Party and NZ First, are projected to win a combined 67 seats – giving them a narrow one-seat majority.
As questions about other coalitions swirl, party leaders are remaining tight-lipped, saying they would wait for the final results before formal discussions.
Major parties on both sides of the political aisle were “likely dissatisfied with their campaigns”, Max Rashbrooke, adjunct senior research fellow at the Victoria University of Wellington, told the BBC.
The opposition Labour Party, led by Chris Hipkins, ran an election campaign that “seems to have inspired few voters”, despite going up against Christopher Luxon, a “historically unpopular prime minister”, Rashbrooke said.
On the other hand, he added, the incumbent National Party also “failed to spark enthusiasm” even though it “should have been safe” given the country hasn’t seen a one-term government in more than 50 years.
The election dealt a huge blow to National with the loss of some of its most senior lawmakers, including Finance Minister Nicola Willis, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith, Transport Minister Chris Bishop and House Speaker Gerry Brownlee.
Act Party leader David Seymour has expressed interest in the finance minister portfolio, telling news outlet Stuff that National must recognise the voters’ message and let its coalition partners play a bigger role.
“The government barely survived, it must now put its best foot forward in every step,” he said.
The big winners of election night were “the more radical minor parties”, Rashbrooke said.
The left-leaning Greens and the right-wing libertarian Act Party both saw new highs this election, while the Opportunity Party, a fledgling centrist party, scored a breakout victory. Having previously failed three times at getting into Parliament, it’s now projected to get seven seats.
Opportunity’s incoming lawmakers, including leader Qiulae Wong, arrived at New Zealand’s parliament on Monday morning, for the start of what Wong said would be a week of “induction stuff”.
AFP via Getty ImagesOpportunity, which has rejected traditional political divisions, has said it’s open to forming a coalition with either major party.
Whichever coalition they join, though, they would “really need to be comfortable with the overall direction the government is going in”, Wong told reporters on Monday.
Wong said that although she has received calls of congratulations from Labour’s Hipkins and the Greens’ Chlöe Swarbrick, they have not had any discussions about coalitions.
Luxon, who had previously ruled out working with Opportunity, told public broadcaster RNZ on Monday that he wanted to talk to Wong “shortly”.
Counting is still underway for nearly 400,000 “special votes”, which includes those from overseas voters and people outside of their electorate.
These make up 14% of total votes, and are likely to be important in the final count.
“They tend to lean left, as voters casting special votes tend to be younger and more likely to be renters – and therefore more likely to be living outside their electorate,” senior politics lecturer Claire Timperley told the BBC on election night.
“The overseas vote might be more likely than usual to be disaffected by the current coalition, given we’ve seen increasing numbers of New Zealanders moving overseas as a result of cost-of-living challenges.”
Faced with a stagnating economy and challenging job market, a record number of Kiwis are moving overseas in search of better career opportunities. More than 114,000 people migrated out of the country in the year leading up to August.
Young people the BBC spoke to ahead of the election said they were “tired” and “cynical” about the future – part of what polling shows is a general grim mood across the country.
“In New Zealand as elsewhere, politics is splintering. But which parties ultimately benefit remains unclear for now,” said Rashbrooke.
Final election results are expected on 27 November, with the official confirmation of MPs set for 3 December.
