AI stock valuations may have peaked. Trivariate Research thinks these shares can keep working

Revenue growth could more than offset anticipated contractions in stock multiples for some key AI stocks over the next few years

Skip NavigationJoin ICJoin ProLivestreamMenuIt may all be downhill from here for valuations of artificial intelligence-related stocks, but that doesn’t mean investors need to start fleeing the space en masse, according to Trivariate Research. Revenue growth could more than offset anticipated contractions in multiples for some key AI stocks over the next few years, the firm said. “We think that the interest rate cycle, and policy direction on AI both yield the same answer – that multiples for AI-related names are likely to continue to decline, and maybe have permanently peaked,” wrote Trivariate founder Adam Parker. Still, “we continue to want exposure to this group.” On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised its overnight interbank borrowing rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% – the first hike in more than three years. The hike followed a hot August jobs report that exceeded Wall Street’s expectations, as well as an inflation uptick in August. Higher interest rates can hurt AI stocks as many companies involved in the ongoing buildout of computing power are heavily indebted. As rates rise, these companies will have to pay more to borrow money. AI companies are also facing political pushback on multiple fronts. Multiple states are considering bans on data center construction, with 71% of Americans opposing construction projects in their area, according to a Gallup poll published in May . Trivariate said Sunday that job losses due to AI expected next year could also mean additional regulation of the technology that could have consequences for stock returns. Still, Trivariate’s Adam Parker thinks investors shouldn’t give up on the space completely. The research firm put together a list of AI stocks over the weekend whose revenue expansion could more than make up for declining valuations. Among them are data center operator Iren , along with cloud providers Nebius and CoreWeave . Chipmakers AMD and Marvell Technology and database manager Oracle also made the list. CoreWeave popped more than 6% Monday as the broader AI trade outperformed to start the week. Still, shares are down more than 26% over the past three months. Oracle rose slightly on the day, but is down more than 19% over the three six months. To be sure, it trades at a slight discount to the broader market. Oracle has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16.4, per FactSet, while the S & P 500 has a multiple of 19.3. AI chipmaker Marvell has been on a fairly steady rise since the end of August and is up about 200% year to date. AMD, which jumped 9% on the day, has also rallied 184% in 2026. “We remain directionally optimistic for the near-term,” Parker said. “The earnings narrative of continued upward earnings revisions, remains intact.”Read More

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