AI to stay dominant force behind US business investment in 2027, Goldman says
Visitors stand near a sign of artificial intelligence at an AI robot booth at Security China, an exhibition on public safety and security, in Beijing, China June 7, 2023. REUTERS/Florence Lo
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Nov 12 : Goldman Sachs on Wednesday forecast annualized spending on artificial intelligence-related hardware and intellectual property will climb to $1.4 trillion by the end of 2027, equivalent to nearly 4 per cent of the US economy.
“AI will remain the dominant driver of business investment growth in 2027,” the brokerage said, forecasting spending to exceed $900 billion by the end of 2026.
Here are some details:
• The view comes amid concerns that rising borrowing costs and increased investor scrutiny could curb AI-related capital spending, particularly as companies lean more heavily on debt-funded expansion
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• Democrats’ victories in the US midterm elections earlier this month sparked concerns over tighter regulation of data-center development, but Goldman Sachs said the outcome poses only limited risks to AI investment
• Goldman estimates AI-related investment will directly boost 2027 capex growth, including semiconductor investment by 5.3 per centage points and US GDP growth by 0.6 per centage points
• “Semiconductor investment is undercounted in the business investment statistics, and most information processing equipment is imported and is thus netted out of GDP,” Goldman said
• Excluding semiconductor investment, AI-driven investment will boost 2027 capex growth by 4.3 pp and US GDP growth by only 0.2 pp, the brokerage said
• Overall, Goldman forecasts US business investment growth at 8 per cent on a quarterly basis in 2027, nearly double the consensus forecast of 4.2 per cent
Source: Reuters
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