Beyond Trump: US midterms offer early test in battle for White House in 2028
Control of Congress may be the immediate prize in the US midterms, but another political contest is already taking shape as both Republicans and Democrats look beyond the vote.
A woman arrives at a polling location on the first day of early voting in Texas for the midterm elections, at the West Gray Metropolitan Multiservice Center in Houston, Texas on Oct 19, 2026. (Photo: AFP/Ronaldo Schemidt)
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WASHINGTON: Control of Congress may be the immediate prize in next Tuesday’s (Nov 3) United States midterm elections, but another political contest is already taking shape as both the Republicans and the Democrats look beyond the vote.
The elections will determine whether Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress or Democrats gain the power to challenge President Donald Trump’s agenda.
But the results could also offer an early indication of the political direction of both parties as they position themselves for the 2028 presidential election.
Opinion polls have suggested that Democrats could take both chambers, potentially complicating Trump’s ability to advance his legislative agenda during the remainder of his presidency.
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Control of both chambers would also give Democrats greater leverage to scrutinise his administration, including launching investigations into alleged abuses of power.
But even as Democrats seek to capitalise on voter dissatisfaction with Trump, they face a fundamental question about their own political identity.
DEMOCRATS FACE A TEST OF THEIR OWN
The party remains divided between its more moderate establishment wing and progressives who advocate more left-wing economic and social policies.
Those divisions have intensified since the Democrats’ defeat in the 2024 presidential election.
Some progressives blame the party’s establishment for failing to deliver, while moderates contend that the progressives’ push for social justice policies risk alienating swing voters.
The midterms could provide an important early indication of which approach resonates more strongly with the electorate.
“You’re seeing this movement from the left that’s really taking advantage of a disgruntled electorate across the nation,” said Pablo McConnie-Saad, who was a policy advisor in the Biden administration.
“You have an electorate that has been voting for a Democrat over and over again with less and less to show for it.”
PROGRESSIVES SEEK TO EXPAND THEIR APPEAL
Among Democratic candidates testing the appeal of progressive politics is Abdul El-Sayed, who is running for the US Senate in Michigan, a state Trump won in 2024.
El-Sayed has framed his campaign around unity, saying Democrats must build coalitions across demographic, geographic and ideological divides.
“We’re going to need to reach across the divides they tell us we can’t breach. Divides of race, of faith, of geography, of sexual orientation, of gender identity, to build together what we want to hand off to our kids,” he said in August while on the campaign trail.
His campaign, alongside that of Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota, is being closely watched as a test of whether progressive candidates can broaden their appeal beyond traditional Democratic strongholds.
Analysts say strong performances in closely contested races would strengthen the progressives’ influence over the party’s 2028 presidential nomination process, potentially setting up a contest with more established figures such as California Governor Gavin Newsom.
“It (would) really serve as a foil to the argument that these types of candidates can’t win and won’t be able to deliver,” said McConnie-Saad.
He pointed to the victory of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani as evidence of growing support for the movement, saying its momentum has “shifted enormously”.
Another prominent progressive figure is New York congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, whose supporters see her as capable of mobilising younger voters and championing working-class interests.
Meanwhile, Democrats trying to appeal to voters closer to the political centre include Senator Jon Ossoff, who is polling strongly in Georgia, a traditionally Republican-leaning territory.
In Texas, James Talarico is attempting an even more difficult political breakthrough. A victory would make him the first Democrat elected to the US Senate from Texas in nearly four decades.
The contrasting campaigns reflect a broader debate within the party over whether its path back to the White House lies in energising its progressive base or appealing to a wider coalition of moderate and independent voters.
The midterm results could help shape that debate ahead of the Democratic presidential primaries in 2028.
But before then, Democrats face a more immediate question: How should they wield their power if they wrest control of Congress from Republicans?
COULD INVESTIGATIONS INTO TRUMP BACKFIRE?
One potential flashpoint is whether to pursue investigations into alleged abuses of power by the Trump administration, a strategy some analysts warn could backfire.
Trump’s legal battles and criminal prosecutions became a defining feature of his 2024 presidential campaign, with Trump portraying himself as the target of politically motivated attacks.
His supporters rallied around that message, although the extent to which it contributed to his eventual victory remains a matter of debate.
Republican adviser Amanda Makki warned that Democrats risk repeating a strategy that she believes strengthened Trump’s political standing.
“For the Democrats, they need to figure out how to win the White House back. (But their) investigations got President Trump here. That mugshot got President Trump here,” she said.
Makki was referring to Trump’s widely circulated 2023 mugshot, taken at the Fulton County Jail in Atlanta, Georgia, after he surrendered to authorities following his indictment on racketeering and related charges.
Trump subsequently used the mugshot for campaigning and fundraising during his presidential bid. A framed copy has also been seen displayed outside the Oval Office in the White House.
Analysts say Democrats face the challenge of holding the administration accountable without reinforcing the narrative of political persecution that Trump used to rally his supporters.
REPUBLICANS LOOK BEYOND TRUMP
Republicans, meanwhile, are confronting their own questions about the future.
Trump has fundamentally reshaped the GOP around his Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, placing his America First agenda at the centre of its political identity.
But with his second presidential term due to end in January 2029, attention is increasingly turning towards who could succeed him.
Republican strategist Ford O’Connell said Trump’s America First agenda has become a unifying force across the party.
“You have moderate Republicans, conservative Republicans, libertarians, even right-leaning independent Republicans. There’s a lot of different points of view in the Republican Party, but what they do seem to agree on is America First is the way to go,” he told CNA.
Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are seen as among the potential contenders for the Republican ticket in 2028.
“You have two very young rising stars of the party. They’re both trying to earn the respect of the president and I guess at the end of the day, his endorsement,” said Makki.
The succession contest could ultimately test whether the MAGA movement remains closely tied to Trump’s personal political appeal or can be carried forward by a new generation of Republican leaders.
THE ROAD TO 2028 BEGINS
The midterm results will shape the political landscape for the remainder of Trump’s presidency.
Republican control of Congress would allow him to continue advancing his legislative agenda with his party’s support, while Democratic gains could mean legislative gridlock.
For Democrats, the results could strengthen either the progressive or moderate wings of the party, influencing the debate over its future direction and the kind of candidate it should put forward in 2028.
For Republicans, the elections could also shape the standing of potential successors and offer clues about how Trump’s MAGA coalition might evolve after he leaves office.
Either way, the race to the White House begins once the polls slam shut on Nov 3.
Source: CNA/dn(oc)
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