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LivestreamMenuBitcoin could be poised for a move of around 30% or more over the next two months as volatility in the world’s largest cryptocurrency sits near historic lows, according to Fundstrat. Bitcoin’s price swings over the past 30 days have been among the smallest on record, Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy Sean Farrell said in a Monday note. Historically, periods when bitcoin has been this calm have often been followed by much bigger moves over the next few months, he highlighted. “The typical magnitude of historical moves is notable. Looking across prior observations, the median absolute move over the subsequent 60 days has been roughly 30%,” Farrell said. That does not necessarily mean bitcoin is headed higher. Previous episodes of similarly subdued volatility have produced large moves in both directions, making the signal more indicative of the potential size of the next move than its direction, according to Fundstrat. Across eight previous episodes identified by Fundstrat, the median absolute move after 60 days was 30.2%. Four of the eight resulted in gains and four in losses, underscoring the lack of a clear directional signal. The prospect of a bigger move comes as bitcoin rallied over 2% on Monday after lagging other cryptocurrencies in recent sessions. It has lost nearly 27% so far this year. Farrell said a meaningful portion of the advance appeared to have been driven by traders closing bearish positions. Open interest in perpetual futures, a measure of outstanding positions, had climbed sharply heading into Friday evening. Since then, coin-denominated open interest has fallen roughly 8% as bitcoin prices rose, suggesting traders unwound a significant amount of bearish exposure, according to Fundstrat. Farrell cautioned against reading Monday’s rebound as the start of a sustained rally. Similar bouts of traders closing short positions in early June and early July initially pushed prices higher before the gains eventually faded. His base case is for a similar pattern this time, though he described the latest price action as constructive. One possible trigger for bitcoin to break out of its unusually calm trading range could come from the bond market. Farrell pointed to rising long-term real yields as a risk for cryptocurrencies and other risk assets. If real yields keep climbing, they could ultimately be the catalyst that ends bitcoin’s low-volatility spell, according to Fundstrat.Read More
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