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LivestreamMenuBitcoin is showing its most encouraging signs yet of establishing a long-term bottom after months of weakness, according to chart analysts. The price of the flagship cryptocurrency has drifted in the $60,000 range for almost two months after dropping below $70,000 at the start of June. It’s about 50% off its October record of roughly $126,000. Bitcoin’s rally toward $83,000 in May was an opportunity to reduce exposure ahead of renewed long-term weakness, according to Oppenheimer’s technical analyst Ari Wald. Since then, however, the price has stabilized above $58,000, after giving back roughly 60% of its gains from the 2022 to 2025 rally. Wald said bitcoin appears to be building a bottom, though another bout of weakness is possible. “Downside momentum has begun to decelerate based on a bullish divergence in bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index, a measurement of the speed of price,” Wald said in a note Monday. “We expect additional consolidation until bitcoin can reclaim its 200-day average and cannot rule out a final leg lower similar to Q4’2022. Still, recent action represents the most constructive evidence of a developing bottom we have seen thus far.” BTC.CM= 6M mountain Bitcoin (BTC) over the past six months Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average – which tracks the average closing price over the past 200 trading days – is at about $72,000. Wolfe Research’s Read Harvey echoed that bitcoin is in a broader downtrend and that he expects the recent uptick to the $65,000 level to lose momentum before another decline. “Price remains in a clear downtrend beneath the downward sloping 200-day moving average, which it has failed to eclipse since losing it in November,” he told CNBC. “We expect this latest stretch of relief to ultimately stall out below the 200-day moving average and reverse to make a new leg lower – as we have already seen play out multiple times this year.” He added that he subscribes to the view that bitcoin is operating on a four-year cycle – which historically has played out as three up years followed by a down-year – and that that roadmap implies a bottom below $40,000 in October. Fairlead Strategies’ Katie Stockton said one of the momentum indicators she tracks has started improving even though bitcoin recently fell to a new low, suggesting selling pressure may be easing and strengthening the case for “a more sustained recovery.” “Bitcoin’s cyclical downtrend appears to be maturing,” she said in a note Monday. “Long-term oversold conditions … [suggest] a basing phase has likely begun.”Read More
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