Commentary: Another critical oil waterway is about to close
The US-Iran war has reminded the world that waterways are vulnerable to war, but there’s another crisis in the making, says Javier Blas for Bloomberg Opinion.
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LONDON: With apologies to Oscar Wilde, to lose one critical waterway may be regarded as misfortune; to lose two looks like carelessness.
Of course, we’re long past carelessness and are now barreling toward disaster, with three already lost (the Strait of Hormuz, the Black Sea ports and the Red Sea’s Bab el-Mandeb) and a fourth poised to join their ranks: the mighty Rhine.
The river, which stretches across northwest Europe, doesn’t have the geopolitical pedigree of some of the other waterways in the headlines lately. But it’s similarly essential, acting as a conveyor belt that connects chemical plants, oil refineries, steel foundries, coal-fired power stations and other manufacturing sites across Switzerland, Germany and France with the Dutch ports. BASF, the German chemical behemoth, describes its importance in hyperbolic terms: “Without the Rhine, industrial production in western Europe would collapse.”
The river is one of the world’s most frequented waterways. On any given day, about 6,900 vessels transport cargo up and down its nearly 800-mile-long course. The problem it faces isn’t war or geopolitical upheaval, but lack of rain: An extreme drought, probably exacerbated by climate change, has reduced its water level to dramatic lows, all but halting barge traffic.
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DRIEST MONTHS ARE STILL AHEAD
The Rhine has perennially suffered from low water levels, including episodes in 1947, 1959, 1964, 1976 and a historic drought in 2018 that forced multiple industrial sites along its shore to shut down, shaving several decimal points off German economic growth. Unless it rains soon, the 2026 crisis is shaping up to be at least as bad as that of 2018; many fear it could even be worse, considering that the driest months for the Rhine – August and September – still lie ahead.
If the water gets low enough to halt traffic, the casualties would quickly spread inland.
Switzerland could be forced to tap its strategic oil reserves within weeks, as the country would struggle to source enough refined products, such as diesel, from the oil hub of Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam that usually arrive via barge. German petrochemical plants and steel foundries might need to reduce output due to a lack of raw materials, which are imported from North Sea ports.
Localised fuel shortages in Germany are also possible. Due to the high prices brought on by the Iran war, many businesses have bought as little fuel as possible in recent months and are operating on a hand-to-mouth basis. The Rhine disruption comes at the worst possible time.
Commodity traders focused on inland European markets are now watching the rain forecasts, just as their colleagues in the Middle East count drones and missiles. The most important Rhine chokepoint to watch is Kaub, a picturesque town south of Cologne, where the Rhine is flanked by medieval castles. The water level here usually stands at around 200cm at this time of year, and has a critical threshold of 78cm; below that level, most barges must reduce their loads to avoid grounding. On Tuesday (Jul 28), the water gauge dropped to just 27cm – the lowest level in recent history so early in the summer.
Without rain on the horizon, commodity traders anticipate the Kaub’s gauge will this week drop below the 25cm low seen in October 2018, reaching its lowest level in at least 36 years.
BYPASSES AREN’T CHEAP OR EASY
As with Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandeb, there are bypasses, but using them isn’t cheap or easy.
The first line of defence is a new model of barge, designed for ultra-low water conditions in response to the 2018 crisis. For now, these vessels still can sail past the rocky riverbed of the Kaub chokepoint.
Yet they are creating a huge loss in capacity, as cargoes have been reduced to keep the ships as high on the water as possible: Last week, the average payload fell to a mere 800 tonnes, down from the usual 5,100 tonnes. If the water level continues to drop as expected, they may not be able to carry enough to justify the effort by the end of the week.
Because more barges are needed to transport the same amount of cargo, freight costs are already spiraling. On a metric-per-tonne basis, it now costs nearly €150 (US$171) to move a payload from Rotterdam to destinations south of Kaub, an all-time high. Typically, freight costs are about €20 per tonne.
The second option is to shift the cargo to rail. But this causes another problem: This summer, Germany is refurbishing a line that runs parallel to the Rhine. The section of track affected, from Troisdorf to Wiesbaden, includes the Kaub chokepoint. The track is not scheduled to reopen until December.
Although other railway tracks exist, they require significant re-routing, increasing costs and time, while reducing capacity. Trucks are the last resort: Replacing a single barge takes at least 100 lorries, so they are only used in critical cases.
VULNERABLE WATERWAYS
Industry is already drawing up crisis plans. The shores of the Rhine are home to major industrial companies, including the world’s largest chemical plant, operated by BASF in Ludwigshafen, south of Kaub. Its banks also host large factories run by Daimler, Bosch, Bayer and Thyssenkrupp, among others.
German officials reckon that historic Rhine droughts like the one experienced in 2018 and again this year are becoming the norm. Rather than every 60 years, they may occur every 10 or 20 years.
The US-Iran war has reminded the world that waterways are vulnerable to war. The Rhine crisis should remind us that a hotter world will do the same to river navigation.
Source: Bloomberg/zw(ch)
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