Skip NavigationMarketsBusinessInvestingTechPolitics & PolicyVideoWatchlistInvesting Club
PRO
LivestreamMenuThe price of gold has undergone an “explosive” phase for two years and that behavior isn’t done yet, according to Deutsche Bank. The yellow metal has endured a tough six months, sitting well below its all-time high achieved earlier this year after a blistering rally that extended through and beyond 2025. But the metal has still doubled in price since August 2024, which Deutsche’s analysts called “explosive” in a note published Monday. “A statistical measure indicates that the current episode of explosive gold price behavior began from August 2024 and is ongoing,” the strategists wrote. Spot gold hit $5,589.38/oz on January 29, before the war in the Middle East raised the prospects for higher interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar, which in turn took the shine off its performance. Spot gold was last seen trading at around $4,031.45 an ounce, while gold futures traded at $4,085.90. @GC.1 YTD mountain How gold futures have performed year-to-date. Deutsche noted a December 2025 warning from the Bank of International Settlements that a statistical test suggested that the gold market had entered bubble-like territory and that a significant correction could follow. But the view of the strategists is positive, and Deutsche forecasts gold’s fair value as “likely to register around $4,700 per ounce by the end of the year, and $4,600 per ounce by the fourth quarter. This is a more bullish take than the German bank’s previous forecast on June 23, written when inflation fears were rife. Deutsche analysts wrote in that note that “hawks are driving out bulls” in the gold market, outlining the risk that three to four interest-rate hikes by the Fed could take gold as low as $3,800 an ounce. This is because the prospect of higher interest rates made yielding assets, like bonds, more attractive versus non-yielding gold, they said.Read More
About The Author
