Dollar bounces on job gains, then pares ahead of CPI
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NEW YORK, Sept 4 : The dollar jumped on Friday after data showed that U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August, well above the 56,000 additions expected by economists, boosting bets on a September Federal Reserve interest rate hike, but then pared much of the gains as traders waited on next week’s inflation data.
August’s jobs gains follow an unexpected 23,000 job decline in July. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 per cent.
“I don’t think this number changes anything really,” Noel Dixon, senior macro strategist at State Street, said. “It’s all going to boil down to what that core number is going to be next week and I think the markets are going to react accordingly.”
Data for August is seen as key to whether the Fed will hike at its September 15-16 meeting. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that if upcoming data confirms inflation pressures are cooling off, he is inclined to argue in favor of keeping interest rates steady.
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Producer price inflation data is due on Thursday and consumer price inflation data is scheduled for Friday next week. Economists expect core CPI to ease to 2.4 per cent on the year, from 2.5 per cent in July.
Elements of Friday’s jobs data also support slowing inflation, Dixon said.
“In today’s number the unemployment rate stayed steady but if you look at wages year over year, that’s the lowest since June 2021. So if Waller and (Fed Chairman Kevin) Warsh and (Fed Bank of New York President John) Williams, who I think are very influential, wanted to hang their hat on something, they could hang it on that,” Dixon added.
Fed funds futures traders raised bets on a September hike to 59 per cent, from 50 per cent before the data.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.13 per cent to 99.10, with the euro down 0.07 per cent at $1.1616.
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar weakened 0.04 per cent to 155.72.
The yen has surged this week as traders boost bets on more or faster Bank of Japan interest rate hikes and is testing the 155.21 level, which was its high reached after last month’s U.S.-Japanese intervention. If it breaks through this, it will take the yen to its strongest level since May 6.
Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, said on Friday he remained on alert to exchange-rate moves, maintaining a warning on Tokyo’s readiness to intervene in the market to combat excessive yen declines.
Traders are also speculating on whether Japanese investors, including insurance companies and pension funds, will pull investments out of U.S. Treasuries and into Japanese government bonds as the Japanese debt yields rise.
JPMorgan said expectations for Japanese pension funds repatriation and BOJ rate hikes “look somewhat overdone” at the moment, but added that an unwinding of an estimated 16 trillion to 17 trillion yen ($102.36 billion to $108.76 billion) in yen shorts could send the dollar to a 142–146 range against the Japanese currency.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 2.36 per cent to $79,563.
(Editing by Alison Williams and Andrew Heavens)
Source: Reuters
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