Dollar heads for weekly gain as Warsh remarks awaited
U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
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Aug 28 : The U.S. dollar held firm near a one-week high against major peers on Friday, as investors stood on the sidelines ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.
Warsh’s debut speech in Wyoming is slated for 1400 GMT. Inflation has remained persistently above 2 per cent, leading traders to price in at least one 25 basis point interest rate hike this year and supporting the dollar in recent days.
Many in markets would welcome any comments on monetary policy and the U.S. Treasury’s effort to bring down long-term borrowing costs during a period of volatility in bond markets.
However, given Warsh’s reticence to offer guidance, analysts said an update on the five task forces on the workings of the Fed he established at the start of his term is more likely.
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The euro and sterling were a touch softer against the greenback, last at $1.165 and $1.358, respectively. Both currencies were set for their first weekly drop in a month.
The yen also weakened a touch to 159.44 per dollar, as investors assessed inflation data out of Tokyo.
“Even though Warsh has repeatedly emphasised in recent weeks that the Fed’s 2 per cent target is non-negotiable, he has never explicitly mentioned the PCE deflator in this context,” Volkmar Baur, an FX & commodity analyst at Commerzbank said in a note, referencing the personal consumption expenditures measure of prices.
“It could therefore be that the Fed is at least considering applying a different measure of inflation.”
“Such a hint would likely nip rate hike expectations in the bud and be interpreted by the market as a dovish signal. The U.S. dollar could come under pressure as a result.”
The dollar index, which measures the currency against six major peers, was at 99.18, just below Thursday’s one-week high of 99.26.
TO HIKE OR NOT TO HIKE
On the sidelines of the Jackson Hole conference, some Fed officials on Thursday reiterated their concerns about inflation and signalled they were open to rate hikes, following data that showed persistent price pressures.
However, analysts see greater likelihood of the Fed leaving interest rates on hold through the end of this year, which could weigh on the dollar.
“We’re generally slightly bearish on the dollar into the year-end because we don’t think the Fed is going to hike in September or at all. We’ve got a year-end forecast for dollar/yen at about 158,” Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING said.
The yen has surrendered part of its intervention-driven gains and is headed for a 1.2 per cent monthly drop.
In Tokyo, annual core inflation accelerated in August, a day after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino stressed the need for timely interest rate hikes.
Traders see a 67 per cent chance that the BOJ could hike interest rates by 25 bps next month, LSEG-compiled data showed.
The Australian dollar was set for its ninth-straight week of gains as rate hike bets built up. The currency has gained 0.4 per cent this week and was last at a three-month high of $0.721.
The Canadian dollar was flat at $0.722 and was heading for its first weekly drop since mid-July after trade tensions with the U.S. escalated.
Bitcoin dipped to $79,652, but was on track for a nearly 30 per cent rise in August – its biggest monthly gain since late 2024. Some analysts have said worries about U.S. debt levels have boosted cryptocurrencies this month.
Source: Reuters
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