Israel-Hamas war: 3 years on, Gaza peace remains elusive
Analysts say differences over disarmament, Israeli withdrawal and Palestinian statehood are among the factors holding back progress.
Palestinians walk along a street surrounded by buildings destroyed in Israeli military strikes during the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza City, Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2026. (AP Photo/Jehad Alshrafi)
New: You can now listen to articles.
This audio is generated by an AI tool.
Read a summary of this article on FAST.
Get bite-sized news via a new
cards interface. Give it a try.
Click here to return to FAST
Tap here to return to FAST
FAST
Three years since the Oct 7, 2023 attacks on southern Israel triggered the Gaza war, the region’s security landscape has changed – but the path to lasting peace is still uncertain.
A ceasefire took effect in October 2025 under United States President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan, bringing an end to large-scale fighting.
The initial phase secured the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
The plan also outlined the disarmament of Hamas and other armed groups, a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and new governance arrangements for the enclave.
But a year on, many of those steps remain unfinished.
“The peace plan is the only game in town. But having said that, it’s frozen. Nothing is happening,” said James Dorsey, adjunct senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at the Nanyang Technological University (NTU).
“I think de facto, you have a situation where both Israel and Hamas are not unhappy with the current status quo,” he told CNA’s Asia Now on Wednesday (Oct 7).
WHY THE STATUS QUO PERSISTS
Hamas remains armed and retains control over parts of Gaza, while continuing to exercise influence “through various networks” and through its role in the distribution of humanitarian goods, Dorsey said.
The militant group has said it has withdrawn from Gaza’s formal civilian administration.
There is also continued division between Hamas and the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority, which has said it is ready to resume a governing role in Gaza.
Israel, meanwhile, maintains control over large parts of the Strip, and retains the ability to carry out military strikes.
Recent strikes included an attempt to kill Hamas’ top leader in Gaza last Saturday, while strikes on Tuesday killed at least two Palestinians.
Another unresolved issue is how Hamas’ disarmament would realistically work.
“To move forward with this proposal would effectively require … Hamas to stop existing as any kind of an entity or organised group. Whether they are willing to go that far remains to be seen,” said Benjamin Radd, political scientist and lecturer at the UCLA School of Law.
He added that the political future of Hamas remains uncertain.
“If Hamas demilitarises, can they still remain a political force? If they remain a political force, can they run for elections?” he asked.
“Can they have members sitting in a future parliament of some kind? All of these remain outstanding issues.”
Radd also pointed out a fundamental question on the Israeli side: Even if Hamas delivers on the demands, would Israel accept the creation of a Palestinian state of an autonomous Palestinian entity?
“(This) effectively (is) a red line both sides seem to have (that) they’re not willing to move from,” he said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said there will be no Palestinian state while he remains in power.
Radd said Netanyahu’s position should also be viewed in the context of Israeli domestic politics.
“This is right now an electoral survival strategy for Netanyahu,” he said.
Israelis will head to the polls on Oct 27, with Netanyahu locked in a tight race for reelection.
“He is, I believe, staking these positions and establishing his views for the sole purpose of winning the right side of his political base, the side that is pushing for a more aggressive response,” Radd said.
CAN THE US BREAK THE DEADLOCK?
Dorsey said resolving the Palestinian question is crucial, adding that there would otherwise continue to be “a festering wound in the Middle East”.
However, he noted that a two-state solution – overwhelmingly endorsed by the United Nations – is becoming “very difficult, if not impossible”, while warning that the alternative, “a one-state solution, is a recipe for civil war”.
He added: “The only way you are going to get any (progress on the peace plan) is if there is significant pressure on both parties, particularly in this case, Israel, and there’s no sign of that.”
Analysts pointed to Washington as crucial to moving the peace plan along.
“The US is the major joker in the deck,” said Dorsey, adding that America would have to pressure Israel to take further steps, including withdrawing its forces and clarifying what Hamas’ disarmament means.
“Does that mean just heavy weapons? Does that mean small sidearms? What (will) the phasing of that be? That’s the role that the US has to play (but) has not played,” he said.
“There may have been some pressure on Israel, but certainly not the kind of pressure that would persuade Israel.”
Analysts said much depends on the US president, and how far he is willing to use Washington’s considerable leverage over Israel to push the process forward.
“It’s going to be Trump who has to twist Israeli arms,” said Dorsey, adding that this would remain the case regardless of whether Netanyahu or an opposition government is in power.
“(But) we’ve seen very little indication of Trump being willing to do so.”
Source: CNA/oc(dn)
Sign up for our newsletters
Get the CNA app
Stay updated with notifications for breaking news and our best stories
Get WhatsApp alerts
Join our channel for the top reads for the day on your preferred chat app
Get bite-sized news via a new
cards interface. Give it a try.
Click here to return to FAST
Tap here to return to FAST
FAST
