Snap Insight: Iran’s birthday present to Trump comes with a price tag
Iran has succeeded in prioritising an end to the war rather than the nuclear issue US President Donald Trump wanted to resolve, says James M Dorsey from the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
New: You can now listen to articles.
This audio is generated by an AI tool.
Read a summary of this article on FAST.
Get bite-sized news via a new
cards interface. Give it a try.
Click here to return to FAST
Tap here to return to FAST
FAST
SINGAPORE: It was out of character, but Iran gave United States President Donald Trump an unexpected 80th birthday present.
It agreed on Sunday (Jun 14) to the final text of a memorandum of understanding that could end the Iran war. But this gift comes with a price tag.
Iran may have emerged from the war stronger than it was before Feb 28, when the United States and Israel attacked the Islamic Republic.
The full text of the deal to be signed on Friday has yet to be published, but it will extend the ceasefire by another 60 days and frame negotiations on the future of Iran’s nuclear programme, final arrangements for shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of sanctions and the release of frozen Iranian assets.
And Mr Trump is going to find it more difficult than Iran to claim victory credibly. What has his war really achieved?
A HARD SELL
The president will point to the destruction of Iran’s navy and air force, but these barely existed before the war. His claim that the US significantly diminished Iran’s missile and drone stockpiles and ability to replenish them remains contested, with CIA intelligence reportedly estimating in May that Iran retains about 70 per cent of its pre-war arsenal.
Mr Trump could assert that he achieved regime change in Iran by killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and numerous other senior political and military figures. But the regime remains intact. All that has changed are the faces.
He has also claimed to have set back the Islamic Republic’s nuclear programme by light-years. Mr Trump creates his own reality, but the key question he will have to answer is whether his alleged successes justify withdrawing in 2018 from the 2015 international agreement that curbed Iran’s nuclear programme and created the Strait of Hormuz crisis with its fallout for the global economy.
With fuller negotiations on the nuclear programme only set to begin after the memorandum is signed, there are few details with which to measure success. In that regard, Iran had reaffirmed that “under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons” in the 2015 agreement.
On balance, that may be a hard sell beyond his most loyal supporters in a Congressional mid-term election year.
SURVIVAL OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC
For its part, Iran can claim verifiable successes, starting with the survival of the Islamic Republic.
Moreover, Iran retains significant leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, which is unlikely to return to its pre-war status. Iran also has achieved an upfront lifting of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, which will ease its oil exports.
Sunday’s Israeli attack on Beirut in response to a drone attack by Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group in Lebanon, produced not only a reprimand by Mr Trump but also a call on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to halt all Israeli military operations in Lebanon.
SOME FINANCIAL RELIEF
Crucially, Iran appears to have achieved some financial relief, a key Iranian demand, although details remain murky.
Mr Trump is unlikely to authorise an upfront release of Iranian funds frozen in the United States because that would spark comparisons with the 2015 agreement in which then President Barack Obama freed large amounts of cash. But the US could facilitate the release of funds by third countries.
The bulk of the estimated US$100 billion in frozen assets are not in the United States. They are in China, India, Luxembourg, the United Arab Emirates, among others.
The UAE recently reportedly agreed to unlock billions of Iranian dollars. It’s not clear if that was part of the US-Iran deal or an effort by the Gulf state to exempt itself from potential future Iranian attacks on Gulf infrastructure.
DIFFERING PERCEPTIONS OF VICTORY
Mr Trump and Iran’s differing perceptions of victory are likely to loom large over forthcoming negotiations on a final settlement.
Differences over the interpretation and implementation are par for the course. Add to those issues like Iran’s ballistic missile programme and relations with Arab partners, including Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis, that the United States wants to discuss but Iran has declared off limits.
Already, some of Mr Trump’s close associates have raised concerns about the deal. South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said that “Iran’s view of the agreement seems different than what the American negotiating team is claiming”. Mr Graham also reminded Mr Trump that a final agreement with Iran would have to be submitted to Congress.
Mr Trump has repeatedly claimed victory over more than 100 days of conflict, but even now, his memorandum is not yet a final deal for the end of the war, much less lasting peace.
Dr James M Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Associate Editor of WhoWhatWhy, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.
Source: CNA/ch
Sign up for our newsletters
Get the CNA app
Stay updated with notifications for breaking news and our best stories
Get WhatsApp alerts
Join our channel for the top reads for the day on your preferred chat app
Get bite-sized news via a new
cards interface. Give it a try.
Click here to return to FAST
Tap here to return to FAST
FAST
About The Author
