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LivestreamMenuA tax in a critical market and the end of the 2026 FIFA World Cup are set to weigh on shares of Anheuser-Busch Inbev , according to Barclays. The bank downgraded the beer giant to equal weight from overweight in a Monday note. A new tax in Brazil — which analyst Laurence Whyatt said is one of the company’s most profitable markets — against goods harmful to health, including alcohol, is a big headwind for the company, Whyatt said. “Brazil is not a peripheral market for ABI – it is the core of the EM growth story via Ambev,” a Brazilian subsidiary of Anheuser-Busch, “and we believe Brazil Beer represents around 11% of ABI’s consolidated revenues,” Whyatt wrote in the note. “Brazil Beer alone accounts for 48% of Ambev’s EBITDA, meaning nearly half of Ambev’s profit pool sits directly in the tax’s path.” The end of the World Cup is also likely to lead to difficult comparison periods ahead. While the soccer tournament boosted alcohol consumption, previous instances show that the rise is normally only temporary rather than the start of a new trend, Whyatt said. A strong 2026, thus, could overstate the company’s momentum, all while the Brazilian “sin tax” takes effect in January 2027. Lastly, Whyatt thinks that Anheuser-Busch’s valuation is too high, at just over 18 times forward earnings, above that of competitors Heineken and Carlsberg . Again, he isn’t bullish the company can maintain the premium. “The valuation debate is shifting towards the durability and composition of organic growth. Brazil’s volume maturity, uncertainty around the sin tax and the difficult 2027 World Cup comp weaken the growth differentiation that has helped sustain ABI’s premium,” he wrote. BUD YTD mountain Anheuser-Busch Inbev year-to-date. U.S.-listed shares of Anheuser-Busch fell slightly following the downgrade.Read More
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