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- There is now a 66% chance that the Strait of Hormuz will not return to normal shipping traffic before January 2027 on Kalshi.
- Odds that it will return to normal before August plummeted from 66% to 21% over the last two weeks.
- The latest shift in odds comes as Iran and Israel launched attacks against one another on Sunday, the first time since April’s ceasefire.
Vessels anchored at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, May 29, 2026. Stringer | Reuters
There is a high likelihood that the shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to normal this year, according to prediction market traders.
There is now a 66% chance that the strait will not see a normal flow of traffic before January 2027 on Kalshi. Odds that it will return to normal before August plummeted from 66% to 21% over the last two weeks. The market defines “normal traffic” as when the seven-day moving average is above 60 ships through the strait.
The latest shift in odds comes as Iran and Israel launched attacks against one another on Sunday, the first time since April’s ceasefire. Iran fired missiles on northern Israel on Sunday after it called out the country for violating its truce with repeated attacks on Lebanon. Israel said it set out a “large-scale strike on strategic defense systems” in response.
Trump also hinted that the strait will remain blocked through Labor Day last week.
“I don’t know. I mean, I think it could be (closed through Labor Day), but I think it’s unlikely. I think that we’ll have it. I think this will resolve itself fairly quickly,” Trump said at the Oval Office.
While Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the country stopped strikes against Israel on Monday, traders on Kalshi have not dramatically moved odds on the strait’s traffic.
U.S. President Donald Trump also insisted the negotiations are still happening in a Truth Social post.
“Both sides, Israel and Iran, are looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE! Final negotiations on ‘Peace’ are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way. The Blockade will remain in place, and in full force and effect, until a ‘Final Deal’ is reached. Things should move quickly,” Trump wrote on Monday.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
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