US remains world’s largest arms exporter, but Iran war strains stockpiles and delays weapons deliveries
For countries waiting on US military equipment, the delays are prompting a broader reassessment of how much they can rely on US weapons supplies in a crisis.
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WASHINGTON: The United States remains the world’s largest arms exporter, but its war with Iran is straining weapons stockpiles and delaying deliveries to allies – raising fresh questions about the reliability of US military supplies during a crisis.
The US accounted for 42 per cent of global major arms exports – including combat aircraft and missile systems – between 2021 and 2025, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. This is higher than the combined exports of Russia, China and the European Union.
Yet, despite its dominance of the global arms market, Washington is facing growing pressure to replenish inventories depleted by months of fighting with Iran.
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Among the countries affected is Poland, which received the first three of its 32 US-made F-35A Lightning II fighter jets in May, with the remaining 29 scheduled for delivery by the end of the decade. Polish pilots are currently training on the aircraft under the US Foreign Military Sales programme.
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But reports suggest Washington has warned allies, including Poland, to expect delays to weapons deliveries as it works to rebuild its inventories.
In April, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth acknowledged before a Senate committee that replenishing military inventories could take time.
A few weeks later, Acting US Navy Secretary Hung Cao said the Pentagon had paused a proposed US$14 billion arms package for Taiwan to ensure the US military retained sufficient munitions for the conflict with Iran.
“Right now we’re doing a pause in order to make sure we have the munitions we need for Epic Fury – which we have plenty of,” he said, referring to the military campaign against Iran.
“We’re just making sure we have everything, but then the foreign military sales will continue when the administration deems necessary.”
Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last month, Hegseth sought to reassure policymakers that the US remained well-equipped, even if it were to restart strikes on Iran.
“Our stockpiles are more than suited for that, both there and around the globe,” he said.
“We’re in a very, very strong position and feel only better about where we’re going in the future. Any decision about future Taiwan arms sales, as the president said, will rest with him.”
However, media reports indicate that deliveries to other US partners, including Japan, the United Kingdom, Norway, Estonia, Lithuania and Switzerland, have also been delayed.
Ashley Roque, senior Pentagon reporter at defence news outlet Breaking Defense, said the delays are fuelling uncertainty among allies that continue to rely heavily on US-made weapons.
“There’s a brewing question over how much you can depend on the US and their defence industrial base,” she said.
“The US is pushing especially European allies and partners to ramp up investment and production within their own country. But at the same time, they need to keep investing in the US.”
She said the unclear foreign military sales process is adding to those concerns.
Countries that invest in US weapons systems may struggle to plan their defence needs if delivery schedules become unpredictable because of shifting political priorities, she added.
REBUILDING TAKES TIME
The scale of the challenge is considerable.
The US has launched more than 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles during the war with Iran, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
The Washington-based think tank warned it could take four or five years for US inventories to return to pre-war levels.
Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow and director of research for the foreign policy programme at the Brookings Institution, said several key weapons systems – such as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) and Patriot interceptors – have been significantly depleted.
He added that stocks of Tomahawk cruise missiles have also been affected.
Analysts warn that strained US weapons stockpiles could weaken deterrence, potentially emboldening rivals such as China and Russia while undermining confidence among American allies.
“There is a greater lack of complete confidence and assuredness among American allies that we would be there for them,” O’Hanlon said.
Still, he cautioned against overstating the risk.
“Any reduction in deterrence is a bad idea, so we should be concerned about this issue and we should ramp up production, but the idea that we’re on the verge of war because of it, I reject,” he noted.
The Trump administration is pursuing plans to increase production of 14 “critical munitions” over the coming years, including Tomahawk missiles and Patriot interceptors.
But expanding production capacity will take time, and many of those weapons are already on back order for allies and partners around the world, said observers.
They added that for countries waiting on US military equipment, the delays are prompting a broader reassessment of how much they can rely on US weapons supplies in a crisis.
Source: CNA/ca(mp)
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