GlobalizationEurope
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GlobalizationEuropehttps://p.dw.com/p/5O50R
For decades, crude oil has been the world’s most closely watched commodity. But in today’s fragmented global economy, the real bottleneck may be diesel. As wars reshape trade routes, refinery capacity remains constrained, Europe and India are two sides of the same energy coin. India has it’s refineries firing on all cylinders, while Europe is sweating the rising prices.
Diesel is becoming a key pressure point for inflation, industry and economic growth. Could the next energy shock come not from oil wells, but from refineries?
The Dip’s Kassandra Sundt is joined this week by Jorge León, an energy economist now with Rystad Energy, he previously worked for BP and OPEC; and Narendra Taneja, a noted global leader on the geopolitics of energy, he’s the Chairman of the Independent Energy Policy Institute and previously worked as a National Spokesperson of the BJP.
This transcript was created using transcription software.
10:00:00:00 – 10:00:30:05
Kassandra
Diesel prices are skyrocketing. While normies like you and me have maybe been looking at the cost at the gasoline pump. Or maybe even checking online for the price of a barrel of crude oil. The energy experts have been sweating the price of diesel. It’s been a perfect storm for diesel prices. This year. Not only has Ukraine been hammering Russian refineries with drone attacks, but the US and Israeli war on Iran has meant counterattacks from Iran and Iranian proxies on Persian Gulf refineries.
10:00:30:10 – 10:00:48:19
Kassandra
Now, Russia has extended its diesel export ban, and Trump and the U.S. are maybe thinking about their own version. And this is all a major headache, not just for your cousin that drives a big truck, but also for freight handlers, farmers, and much more. Because it’s diesel that makes the world go round.
10:00:48:22 – 10:00:52:13
Kassandra
Welcome to The Dip, your podcast about money, power and consequences.
10:00:52:14 – 10:00:55:20
Kassandra
I’m Kassandra.
10:00:55:22 – 10:01:04:24
Kassandra
To help me figure out not only what this means for the world at large, but for economies that are massive diesel importers like Europe and massive diesel exporters like India.
10:01:05:00 – 10:01:21:03
Kassandra
I’m joined by two amazing guests from London. I’m joined by Jorge León. He’s currently with Rystad Energy, where he serves as the head of geopolitical analysis. But he’s been in the energy business for well over 15 years and previously worked at both BP and OPEC. George, thank you for joining us.
10:01:21:05 – 10:01:24:07
Jorge
My pleasure. Thank you for the thanks for the invite.
10:01:24:09 – 10:01:34:24
Kassandra
And from New Delhi, Narendra Taneja is on the line. Global energy expert and the chairman of the Independent Energy Policy Institute. Narendra, thank you for joining us as well.
10:01:35:01 – 10:01:36:09
Narendra
Thanks for having me.
10:01:36:11 – 10:01:42:15
Kassandra
Narendra, let’s start with you. How are high diesel prices showing up? In New Delhi right now?
10:01:42:17 – 10:02:04:22
Narendra
Oh, that’s a very interesting question. In fact, if I go to a, gas station close to my house, I pay a ₹96 for one liter. That’s roughly $1, you know, for one liter. So which is not so bad. So therefore, I mean, we we are reading all these reports from different parts of the world on diesel, this kind of global diesel prices.
10:02:04:24 – 10:02:26:24
Narendra
But as far as Indian consumer is concerned so far, she or he feels quite insulated thanks to the government policy. But more than that, because India is a major refining power if not a major refining superpower. So I think that’s also way to India’s advantage. So Indian consumer feels kind of he’s not really feeling any pinch and not feeling any kind of heat.
10:02:27:01 – 10:02:42:22
Narendra
And you’ll find you can buy diesel any part of the world. Any part of the country, you know, southeast will be a vast country. There is no shortage of digital diesel is available. And the price also, by and large, I would say if you compare it to the diesel prices in other parts of the world, quite affordable.
10:02:42:24 – 10:02:47:23
Kassandra
Is it the same in London, or are drivers starting to feel the pinch?
10:02:48:00 – 10:03:12:12
Jorge
No, no, we’re starting to feel the pain. All over Europe. In the UK, for example, the average diesel price has just increased above $2 to pounds per liter. That’s the highest level ever. Even higher than when? Early 2022, when we had the Russia-Ukraine war. The story to the Russia-Ukraine war. So now we are at the highest level ever.
10:03:12:12 – 10:03:14:22
Jorge
So we are feeling the pain for sure.
10:03:14:24 – 10:03:26:02
Kassandra
George, walk me through the difference here. I think some people might be confused on, you know, crude oil versus diesel versus what they put in their own vehicles. If it’s gasoline, for example. What’s the difference? What are we talking about here?
10:03:26:04 – 10:03:50:19
Jorge
Right. So the primary product, let’s say it’s crude crude is is the primary source of all these products. So essentially what the how the system works. You take crude and crude goes into a refinery. The refinery converts, the crude into different products, products like gasoline, like diesel, like jet fuel and so on. And those individual products have their own pricing.
10:03:51:00 – 10:04:23:16
Jorge
But of course, there tends to be some sort of a relationship or a correlation if you want, between the price of crude, the input price and the price of the final products. Normally those go hand in hand, except in certain situations, such as the current one where we have a big increase in, in diesel prices, while the price of crude, even though it’s elevated, is around $100 per barrel, but is not as elevated as the historical relationship between diesel prices and crude prices would suggest.
10:04:23:18 – 10:04:36:18
Kassandra
Narendra, I’m seeing some pretty, scary headlines. When we’re looking at the global markets here, is diesel apocalypse too strong of a term, or am I kind of a bit too panicked?
10:04:36:20 – 10:04:58:23
Narendra
Well, you see, the problem is that there is plenty of oil available, and that’s not an issue. That is the economics of oil. This is basically both in the global economy, the prices have gone up, let’s say headline price today, for instance, just for the sake of discussion. If the headline price was $105 per barrel for Brant, but in India, the landed price is in the region of $130 per barrel.
10:04:58:23 – 10:05:26:16
Narendra
Because the shipping rates have gone up, insurance costs have gone up. And increasingly we used to import bulk of our crude oil, let’s say, from the Persian Gulf area. But the region being in the words we are now importing for far flung geographies like the United States, Canada, Norway and Angola and Brazil and Ghana and so on and so forth, which means that, you know, longer shipping times from Persian Gulf to India used to take for a ship seven, 6 to 7 days for a tanker to reach Indian refineries.
10:05:26:18 – 10:05:46:21
Narendra
But from the United States, it can take anything between 50 days to 60 days. The same the story is when it comes to Latin America. So therefore the that has basically become a major pain, for our refiners. However, since we have a large number of refineries, we have got some very modern refineries. We have about 23 or 24 refineries.
10:05:46:21 – 10:05:48:03
Narendra
We are constructing four more.
10:05:48:06 – 10:06:06:19
Narendra
I think the situation in India is, more or less comfortable globally. When you look at it, my worry is that you know, my worry is that Europe is today paying the price. Europe is paying the price for being kind of naive in the sense that, you know, for 20 years they’ve been saying oil is bad, oil is dirty.
10:06:06:19 – 10:06:35:24
Narendra
But the fact that they shut down majority of their refinery, so they are dependent on the geographies, you know, in India, for instance, last month we exported, I think about in the region, about 300,000 barrels of diesel to Europe every day, every day to Europe. And, so therefore they are also important for another country. But my sense is that Europe today is paying the price for being naive, and rather rather unrealistic, the last 15 years particularly.
10:06:36:03 – 10:06:37:17
Narendra
And today they are paying the price for it.
10:06:37:21 – 10:06:52:05
Kassandra
Jorge, respond to this idea that Europe’s trying to have its cake and eat it, too, you know, no refineries here. But still, being a massive diesel importer, it has Europe and but naive and trying to have it both ways.
10:06:52:07 – 10:07:16:20
Jorge
I think I sort of tend to agree with, with Narendra in the fact that, Europe has put much more emphasis on energy transition as opposed to energy security. And the big the big data here is that refining capacity in Europe has come down by 25% in 20 years. Back in 2006, Europe had around 17 million barrels per day of refining capacity.
10:07:16:21 – 10:07:40:16
Jorge
Right now, we only have 12 million barrels per day of refining capacity because we’ve been closing refineries. And that that made sense, at the time when the world was less geopolitically fragmented, right. Where we didn’t where there was a lot of globalization, there was a lot of trade. No one really was expecting the world to to become a more the more volatile place that we are living in.
10:07:40:21 – 10:08:08:06
Jorge
And also because, Europe’s European, domestic demand has been coming down since 2006, 2008, strongly because of the electrification and also because of the push for, renewables for electrifying the transportation sector, for example. So it sort of makes sense from the policymaker point of view, in a world where there was less energy risk. Let’s say, to try to put more emphasis on the energy transition.
10:08:08:06 – 10:08:44:20
Jorge
Now, it turns out that we have two main wars in the last 4 or 5 years, the 2022 war, Russia, Ukraine and now the US Iran war. And that means that energy security is now becoming much more important at the moment. So the decisions that we’re taking years ago and now affecting the European energy security landscape, and again, the fact that we don’t have enough refining capacity, the fact that we have not diversifying our supply, as India has clearly done, means that we’re now in, in a really bad situation compared to other regions across to across the world.
10:08:44:20 – 10:08:59:07
Jorge
So, yes, in that sense, Europe is paying, the price, because it was, prioritizing energy transition. But right now, the priority for any energy policy makers is obviously energy, energy security.
10:08:59:09 – 10:09:18:09
Kassandra
Now, the four biggest diesel exporters in the world are the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia and India. And I want to talk about some of the factors for each of these countries, because I think they all play in here. George, I want to start with Russia. How big of a factor is the Ukraine Russian war, because it’s been going on for four years if you start in 2022.
10:09:18:09 – 10:09:21:24
Kassandra
But there was aggression before that as well.
10:09:22:01 – 10:09:48:20
Jorge
For sure, for sure. But there has been a step up, a significant step up in the Ukrainian drone attacks into Russian refineries, very, very significant, increase in the last 6 to 7, eight months. And to give you a sense, Russia used to export around a million barrels per day of diesel every, every day. So this was one of the main, as you correctly mentioned, one of the main diesel exporters.
10:09:48:22 – 10:10:13:10
Jorge
Right now, they’re not able to export at all because of the refinery attacks. The another another data point that I want to give you right now, Russia is refining around 4 million barrels per day. Normally during, during, this time of the year, they should have been processing around 5.5 million barrels per day. So they had to reduce drastically their refinery runs because of the attacks.
10:10:13:10 – 10:10:36:15
Jorge
So for sure, the situation for Russia as one of the main diesel exporters around the world is quite dire. They cannot exports and they have imposed it this, this diesel export ban in order to protect their domestic consumers. So, there’s not much that can be done in the short term to try to improve the situation for, for the Russian, diesel exports.
10:10:36:17 – 10:10:54:18
Kassandra
Narendra, why is Russia still even such a big factor here? Because, you know, anyone who’s been following this war, one of the things that’s a big factor here is that what feels like a million sanctions on Russian fossil fuel, why is Russian oil or Russian diesel still such a big factor here?
10:10:54:20 – 10:11:15:02
Narendra
Well, because Russia is blessed with massive reserves of oil and gas. Russia is an oil and gas superpower, just like Saudi Arabia or the United States. However, you know, we have seen and if you look at the the, the numbers, the cold numbers before the Ukraine war, I Western Europe was heavily dependent on Russia for, for oil and gas.
10:11:15:02 – 10:11:37:06
Narendra
But in fact, Western economy was stable. Particularly Germany was doing well thanks to the cheap energy coming from Russia. However, after that, you know, we saw that, you know, there were sanctions in a way. Oil was oil and gas. Both were weaponized by Western Europe and particularly draw course by the United States as well. But the fact remains that, you know, Western Europe is heavily dependent.
10:11:37:07 – 10:11:56:21
Narendra
Earlier they were dependent on Russia for oil and gas. Today they are dependent on the United States of America. So that’s what I said. The Western Europe in particular has been very, very naive. I mean, and the result is look at Russia today. Russia. I mean, we have been we are now exporting diesel to Russia. We are exporting they bought from us.
10:11:56:22 – 10:12:15:11
Narendra
And if you look at very carefully, I’m taking, my views from New Delhi, which is far away from, you know, from Western Europe, but how that’s how we look at it. I think weaponizing of weaponizing energy, weaponizing oil, weaponizing gas is not a very smart idea. And and therefore then this not only the rest of the entire world is paying the price.
10:12:15:11 – 10:12:34:15
Narendra
Today, as I said, we are heavily dependent on imports for crude oil. And we are also paying a very, very heavy price. If you my own back of the envelope calculation is left to demand and supply, crude oil should not be more than $70 per barrel. But for India, landed prices in the region of about $125 per barrel.
10:12:34:20 – 10:12:55:24
Narendra
This is all geopolitical premium a both Persian Gulf and Ukraine now look like the world is paying the price, and there are 4 billion energy poor on the planet, most of them in Asia, Africa, Latin America. They are paying the price. So that’s why they said that Western Europe and the United States also, but Western Europe in particular, they failed to provide the leadership to do this industry.
10:12:55:24 – 10:13:03:23
Narendra
Oil and gas industry and at the same time, for their own consumers, for their own people, the kind of policies they follow. They’d be rather naive.
10:13:04:03 – 10:13:25:09
Kassandra
Jorge, I want to talk more about one really good example, the United States, as you’ve already briefly mentioned, Narendra, that has this tension between, you know, how much does a barrel of oil actually cost? Plus, you know, what we could call the geopolitical delivery surcharge that’s added on top because the United States is actually the biggest exporter of diesel.
10:13:25:12 – 10:13:42:20
Kassandra
But now we’re seeing especially on social media, prices are really high. And, you know, freight, freight truck drivers are especially feeling it. If you’ve seen some of those videos online. Jorge, why are prices still so expensive in the US if there is so much diesel that’s being refined, there?
10:13:42:22 – 10:14:06:19
Jorge
I think the the question here is that this is a global market. And the US is is a major diesel exporter, for sure. Refining refining plants there in the US are pushing really, really hard to try to meet that massive surge in external demand because we’ve lost the Middle East supply of diesel and the Russian supply of diesel.
10:14:06:23 – 10:14:38:17
Jorge
But at the end of the day, this is a global market, right? So an increase in lack of supply somewhere in the system is reflected in prices all over, all over the world and in particularly in the US, which is one of us, as you correctly mentioned, the main diesel export. So domestic refiners in the US face the, the, the, the decision to export that diesel at a very, very high margin with very high cracks or use it internally and at the moment the US is long on diesel.
10:14:38:21 – 10:15:00:05
Jorge
So it makes sense for those refineries to export part of the production elsewhere in the world because of that higher oil prices. So, I go back to the idea that this is a global market. See, see, much crude, same as gasoline. And therefore, the higher prices are being felt all over the place, not just in the US, but all over the world.
10:15:00:07 – 10:15:01:09
Jorge
All over the world.
10:15:01:11 – 10:15:30:05
Kassandra
You know. But, Jorge, I’m wondering how long we can expect this to stay a global market. You know, Russia has had an export ban, for I bleed since the summer and they’ve extended that through October. I’m not sure if, the Trump administration is actually considering an export ban right now or if, you know, President Trump might invent a term like a reverse tariff or something to make it cost more to send diesel out of the country, could something like an export ban from the United States be on the cards?
10:15:30:07 – 10:15:48:19
Jorge
Oh for sure. And this was high in the news a couple of weeks ago. Where there was there was the idea that the, the Trump administration was thinking about about it, you know, and and in theory, it could happen. Now, it’s it’s a bit perverse, the, the side effects that you could have with an export ban in the, in the US.
10:15:48:19 – 10:16:12:19
Jorge
So the first impact would be, there will be more diesel in the country than domestic demand. Therefore, prices of diesel will come down in the US. That’s that’s for sure. So that’s the first order effect. So in that sense, it will be a, you know, it will be effective. A measure to bring down the, the, the price of diesel in the US.
10:16:12:21 – 10:16:35:04
Jorge
But there’s a very important second and third order effects that you need to take into account the fact that there is more diesel produced in the US than consumed means that at some point the difference is going to be stored, and at some point there’s not going to be enough of a storage to store that that excess diesel and what refineries will do, they will need to reduce rents.
10:16:35:10 – 10:17:00:11
Jorge
And if they reduce rents, they reduce the amount of oil products that are produced, not just diesel, but also gasoline, jet fuel, naphtha and so on. So you might end up in a situation where diesel comes down, but actually the rest, the prices of the rest of the products, particularly gasoline, which is really important for the US road transportation sector, might actually start coming up.
10:17:00:13 – 10:17:10:24
Jorge
So, yes, that’s on the cards, but be careful what you wish for because the side effects could be actually quite, quite harmful for the for the U.S. economy in that sense.
10:17:11:01 – 10:17:17:21
Kassandra
The US has put all this pressure on the G7 recently to release emergency stockpiles of oil and diesel.
10:17:17:23 – 10:17:37:22
Kassandra
But like we’ve already been talking about Europe are net importers. I can’t help but wonder because the G7 let’s remember includes Germany, France and Italy. So I can’t help but wonder, are leaders from these countries giving up some energy security for their own citizens in order to keep this important ally, the US and President Trump, happy?
10:17:37:24 – 10:17:58:22
Narendra
Well, the honest answer is the International Energy Agency, listens more to the United States than to any other country, though they are also the members. And, so I think they came under pressure and West European leaders came under pressure. They agreed to whatever President Trump, for instance, you know, wanted to I think that’s not a very, very smart energy security strategy.
10:17:58:24 – 10:18:18:00
Narendra
And however, as I said, the real issue is, of course, the refining capacity, the, the, you know, attacks on refineries and particularly in Europe and also in Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia is a major exporter of diesel, as you know. However, the refineries are under attack from Hutus and from the Iranians. And also at the same time, whatever.
10:18:18:00 – 10:18:39:03
Narendra
If they have some capacity, they’re not able to really ship it across, to, to markets that need, their products. So therefore, the situation I think unless and until we see some kind of breakthrough, you know, in the Persian Gulf situation, I think situation is likely to continue like that. So my own sense is I’m a born optimist.
10:18:39:03 – 10:19:00:06
Narendra
My own sense is that, you know, that probably by the middle of November, we might see some light at the end of the tunnel, and there might be some kind of a diplomatic breakthrough, and we might have some kind of a truce, the call it peace or whatever in the Persian Gulf area before Christmas. However, that does mean that, you know, the diesel prices would be over instantly.
10:19:00:08 – 10:19:04:03
Narendra
That might take some time, but the market sentiments will improve.
10:19:04:05 – 10:19:21:13
Kassandra
Narendra, you you pointed to November as potentially, a time that we could see a bit of a resolution to the Strait of Hormuz. I want to go to that part of the world. What’s the state right now? Because I have a feeling that some people who aren’t directly affected by by the war might have tuned out a little bit.
10:19:21:13 – 10:19:27:06
Kassandra
Is the strait open 100% open? Halfway open. What are you seeing there, Andre?
10:19:27:08 – 10:19:54:24
Narendra
Well, my my sense is that, you know, the, state is not I mean, there are two narratives, the narratives being sold or rather pushed by the United States is that everything is back to normal. The ships are going back and forth, and it’s kind of, the movement is back to almost 85 to 90% normal, for of, you know, for crude and for products and even for LNG, there’s a kind of claim being that, however, the real situation is different.
10:19:55:01 – 10:20:16:01
Narendra
Yes, there is some movement. Yes, there is is better than, let’s say, two weeks ago. However, just yesterday, only we saw that a major tanker was attacked. So therefore, you know, at the end of the day, these tank oil tankers are commercial vessels. They are not military vessels. The majority of these ships, as you probably know, are actually meant by Indian captains and Indian sailors.
10:20:16:07 – 10:20:39:15
Narendra
So we you know, we are very worried about, you know, the safety of our people who are operating these ships. Ships may belong to, you know, whichever country. But in majority of cases, the Indians and Filipinos, and they are the ones who are actually operating these ships. So therefore, my own sense is that probably when America says 85 to 90% back to normal, they are not they are not correct.
10:20:39:15 – 10:21:00:20
Narendra
When the Iranians say that there is no movement of ships, they are also wrong. So probably let’s say I think 55 to 60%, traffic has begun to happen. And however, the risk is very high, these insurance premiums are going up and the salaries that they have to pay to captains and officers who are operating these ships have also gone literally through the roof.
10:21:00:20 – 10:21:13:08
Narendra
So overall, the economics and the challenge and unless and until there is some kind of, you know, accord or, agreement between Tehran and, the United States, I think the situation would continue to be like that.
10:21:13:10 – 10:21:28:20
Kassandra
Or, hey, when we’re looking at the Persian Gulf and especially Saudi Arabia being such a massive diesel exporter, I can’t help but wonder why isn’t OPEC jumping in here to save the day? I thought that this cartel had a lot of power when it comes to energy flows.
10:21:28:22 – 10:21:52:16
Jorge
Sure, if you’re. Yes, but in reality they don’t have any power at the at the moment OPEC and an OPEC plus you know how OPEC plus works. They manage supply in order to make sure that supply meets demand. And lately what they’ve been doing since April of 2025 they’ve been increasing production. They’ve been unwinding production cuts more than 4 million barrels per day.
10:21:52:22 – 10:22:16:17
Jorge
Now that’s on paper. On paper, Saudi Arabia has been increasing production in the last in the last year or so. But in reality, the fact that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, means that those paper barrels are precisely that. Those are paper barrels. They’re not real barrels because they can’t be exported at the moment. So their power right now is extremely, extremely limited.
10:22:16:22 – 10:22:42:16
Jorge
And you couple that with the fact that Russia, the other major OPEC plus member he’s under attack, their production has come down rapidly. Their quota is around 9.5 million barrels per day, and they’re producing close to 8.5 million barrels per day because of the attack. So in reality right now OPEC plus has no power in oil in oil markets because of those those two constraints.
10:22:42:16 – 10:23:01:05
Jorge
So there’s very little that OPEC plus ministers can do. They meet every month to decide whatever they, they want to do in terms of oil supply. But in reality, those, those meetings are and the results of those meetings are pretty much irrelevant for the oil market at the at the very moment.
10:23:01:07 – 10:23:15:00
Kassandra
We’ve heard is view. Jorge, from New Delhi looking towards Western Europe at the EU, a net importer of diesel, from what I understand. Are we screwed, Jorge?
10:23:15:01 – 10:23:40:14
Jorge
I guess it really depends on how long this crisis is going to is going to last for. And Narendra mentioned that he’s he’s quite optimistic that this might we might have a diplomatic, you know, breakthrough after the midterm elections. I’m increasingly less optimistic. Really. Because I don’t see, you know, any diplomatic efforts, being being materialize any time, anytime soon.
10:23:40:15 – 10:24:00:17
Jorge
I have the feeling that the fact that there’s more crude flow into the Strait of Hormuz actually has the opposite effect in terms of a diplomatic breakthrough. I think it puts much more pressure on Iran to ramp up and escalate further. Those the, the the counter attacks, the Strait of Hormuz, serves as a leverage for, for Iran.
10:24:00:22 – 10:24:24:08
Jorge
The fact that it looks like Iran is losing that leverage, it puts actually more pressure on them to, to escalate further. So, I think that the situation is is quite critical at the moment. What I’m more worried about, though, is the impact that diesel prices is, are already having on inflation in across the world, but particularly in the, in the European Union.
10:24:24:08 – 10:24:58:20
Jorge
When I see the latest inflation reading, 3.8%, just last month, that is very high. And and this is because there’s a very strong correlation between inflation and diesel price, particularly in the US, but also in Europe. So when I’m more worried about this, the macroeconomic effect that the sustained crisis could have on the European, on the European economy, we’ve, we’ve seen, the European Central Bank, increase in interest rates rapidly after the 2022, Russia, Ukraine war.
10:24:58:22 – 10:25:23:13
Jorge
Then coming down as inflation, started to cool down. And now we’re probably going to see another round of increase in interest rates. And that has very important macroeconomic implications and growth implications for for final consumer such as you and me. So I’m I’m a bit more worried about, let’s say, the macro economic effects that this could have not in the next few months, but actually into 2027.
10:25:23:15 – 10:25:35:10
Kassandra
Narendra, cast your optimistic gaze on what an off ramp could look like to this crisis. What are things that leaders could be doing either in the West, the US or so on that could have an actual impact here?
10:25:35:12 – 10:26:01:14
Narendra
But you see, oil is 90% politics. And oil has always been 90% politics. Look, it from the time that Winston Churchill, when he was, heading the Royal Navy, he made the switch from coal to to to oil. Since then, energy security and oil has been a, you know, 90% politic. So my own sense is the Persian Gulf War is no longer only about the United States and Iran.
10:26:01:16 – 10:26:32:18
Narendra
What is happening there? The situation is getting a little out of control practically on a daily basis. You have these Saudi Arabia’s internal situation, domestic, political situation. You have seen what’s happening in you. I feel the American pulling out, you know, and and the the Iraq is a Shia majority country. And at the same time, you know, that the overall situation there is such that, you know, if we don’t put, you know, America and they all come together, you know, put an end to the, to the war there, I think that is going to get completely out of control.
10:26:32:20 – 10:27:05:10
Narendra
And, my own sense is that China does want this war to continue. Russia does does want this war to continue. America has realized that they can’t defeat Iran, and Iran has realized that, you know, probably this is the best time for them to sit across the negotiating table and find a good solution. However, you know, on this, waiting for American Congress elections and their own analysis is that or their wish is that, Republicans, the lose and Democrats win both the houses that would put pressure on Trump to sit across the negotiating table and find a solution on ASAP basis.
10:27:05:12 – 10:27:30:14
Narendra
However, if that does happen, then we are talking of a middle East crisis, you know, getting out of control. We have already seen, for instance, Pakistani sending forces to Saudi Arabia, to, to beat to defeat all Turkey is getting into it. Who knows, some other countries might get into it. So and then the situation would be really extremely, extremely serious, not only for the Persian Gulf region, but for the whole world.
10:27:30:20 – 10:27:48:20
Narendra
It will drag the entire world into a kind of mess that the world would find very, very difficult to deal with. I mean, we we probably back from 1939, the 1940 kind of situation. So my own sense is nobody wants that. And I’m a Chinese and Americans are talking Indians and Americans are talking Indians, and Chinese are talking about the Middle East.
10:27:49:00 – 10:28:07:08
Narendra
We also talking with with the Iranians and also the the Saudis are at the same time, my own sense is the good sense will prevail because the right now, the situation is such that the entire world is paying the price and the situation is such. Unless we fight, you know, deliver a solution. Let’s of these countries or the world together before Christmas, I think.
10:28:07:08 – 10:28:13:11
Narendra
Then if that does happen, then 2027 can be the worst year for humankind since the Second World War.
10:28:13:13 – 10:28:18:16
Kassandra
Narendra Taneja on the line from New Delhi. Thank you for making the time.
10:28:18:18 – 10:28:20:06
Narendra
Thank you. Thank you. Okay.
10:28:20:08 – 10:28:26:09
Kassandra
And Jorge León from Rystad Energy joining us from London. Thank you as well for joining the debate.
10:28:26:11 – 10:28:28:00
Jorge
Thank you so much.
10:28:28:02 – 10:28:29:06
Narendra
Thank you.
10:28:29:08 – 10:28:48:01
Kassandra
That is it. This week for the dip. Thank you very much for tuning in. And don’t forget, of course, to leave a comment or question wherever you found this episode. And any feedback is always welcome. You can send your longer feedback, your proper rants to the dip@dw.com. And if you’re not subscribed in the podcast app of your choice, go ahead and do that.
10:28:48:02 – 10:28:56:00
Kassandra
You can find us by searching the dip. But until next time, thank you for watching the day.
