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• Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think there’s almost 60% odds that the U.S. added more than 90,000 payrolls in September, and also place a 50-50 chance that it generated more than 100,000 jobs.
• That’s higher than economists surveyed by Dow Jones’ consensus estimate for 84,000 jobs made in the month.
• The September jobs report is set to be delivered by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday.

Alan Nudelman (R), from Jiffy Lube, speaks to people about job opportunities during the Mega JobNewsUSA South Florida Job Fair held in the Amerant Bank Arena on Sept. 25, 2026 in Sunrise, Florida. Joe Raedle | Getty Images

Prediction market traders are expecting another strong jobs report on Friday. 

Following August’s bigger-than-expected employment report — where the U.S. added 162,000 jobs during the month — traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think there’s a 60% chance the country added more than 90,000 jobs during September. 

Speculators also think there’s almost 50-50 odds that the report is once again in six figures. That’s higher than the Dow Jones consensus economist consensus forecast of 84,000. 

On the contracts, traders are asked whether they think the U.S. added more than a certain number of jobs in the month. The market and its contracts are resolved using official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

Traders on Polymarket also think there’s about 50-50 odds the September jobs report is in the six figure range. The contracts on Polymarket are resolved the same way as on Kalshi. 

While the labor market earlier in the summer showed signs of weakness, August’s jobs report showed it rebounding. It also gave monetary policymakers at the Federal Reserve greater cover to focus on its inflation mandate, which remains above target, and raise interest rates at its September meeting.  

The September employment report is set to be delivered on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Before that, ADP’s national employment report will be released on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m. ET. 

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.

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