analysis
What Prabowo’s biggest Cabinet reshuffle to date signals as he nears 2 years in office
President Prabowo Subianto’s seventh Cabinet reshuffle mixes political loyalists with technocrats in some of Indonesia’s most consequential portfolios, as analysts see him consolidating authority ahead of his second anniversary in office.
Arrmanatha Nasir (left) signs his appointment letter as foreign minister of Indonesia in front of President Prabowo Subianto at the presidential palace in Jakarta on Oct 1, 2026. (Photo: Presidential Secretariat Press Bureau/Laily Rachev)
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JAKARTA: The major Cabinet reshuffle by President Prabowo Subianto last week signals a consolidation of his authority as he approaches his two-year mark in office this month, said analysts.
They added that the reshuffle, Prabowo’s seventh and largest to date, also involves some of the most politically consequential positions in government.
The Oct 1 overhaul involved 10 ministerial and deputy ministerial appointments – along with eight other agency leadership roles – and, like previous ones, was sudden and caught many by surprise.
Analysts told CNA the scale and suddenness suggested the changes went beyond a conventional performance review.
“First, there is an element of uncertainty that the president appears to be trying to create among the ministers and his aides,” said Wawan Mas’udi, a political lecturer at Yogyakarta’s Gadjah Mada University, adding that he believed this could be aimed at keeping ministers on their toes.
The reshuffle comes as Prabowo approaches two years in office on Oct 20.
His current government consists of 49 ministers and 57 deputy ministers from 10 different parties, and the latest changes show that Prabowo has to continue to manage the broad coalition of interests surrounding his presidency, said analysts.
At the same time, they added that he is trying to put a stronger personal stamp on his government by placing trusted figures in several strategic portfolios while moving some officials closely associated with his predecessor Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi.
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Those close to Jokowi include police chief Listyo Sigit Prabowo, who was reassigned to head the presidential staff office, and former coordinating minister for human development and cultural affairs Pratikno, who on Friday was reassigned to head the presidential advisory council.
Listyo has a long-standing relationship with Jokowi, as he served as Solo’s police chief in 2011, when Jokowi was the city’s mayor. When Jokowi became president in 2014, Listyo was his aide for two years. In 2021, Jokowi appointed Listyo as police chief.
Meanwhile, Pratikno served as Jokowi’s minister of state secretary throughout his entire two-term presidency from 2014 to 2024, and immediately became the coordinating minister for human development and culture when Prabowo came to power in October 2024.
Although Listyo and Pratikno are now heads of institutions reporting directly to Prabowo, they would have less power than they did as police chief and coordinating minister for human development.
In Indonesia, the heads of the presidential staff office and the presidential advisory council are largely seen as symbolic roles.
At the same time, Prabowo showed that he was prepared to turn to technocrats and subject experts in some key positions.
In foreign affairs, for instance, he replaced close political ally Sugiono with career diplomat Arrmanatha Christiawan Nasir, promoting him from deputy foreign minister.
“The reshuffle shows a combination of … Prabowo’s political stance … (and) internal dynamics in each ministry, including assessments of ministers’ professionalism and performance,” said Wawan.
There are also “electoral considerations” and calculations over how the performance of particular ministries could politically benefit the president, he added.
One of the most prominent changes involves Sugiono, a Prabowo loyalist and secretary-general of his Gerindra Party, who took over from Pratikno as coordinating minister for human development and culture.
This is considered a promotion, as Sugiono now coordinates eight ministries responsible for programmes in areas such as health and education that touch millions of Indonesians.
If these programmes, which can potentially impact the masses, go down well with the public, it could boost Prabowo’s chances of winning again if he seeks re-election in 2029, analysts said.
Meanwhile, former army chief Dudung Abdurachman was moved from the presidential staff office to become coordinating minister for political and security affairs, while national narcotics agency chief Suyudi Ario Seto became national police chief.
These are also highly influential roles, as the coordinating minister for political and security affairs oversees eight ministries related to security and defence, while the police chief is in charge of the entire police force in the archipelago.
Dudung is considered close to Prabowo and publicly backed his 2024 presidential bid after retiring from the military.
Suyudi, by contrast, is not known to have a close personal relationship with the president. However, he once served as the Bogor regency police chief and the Bogor city police chief, where Prabowo’s private residence is located.
Their appointments put new leadership in two of Indonesia’s most important security positions following the most serious unrest of Prabowo’s presidency last year, when nationwide protests escalated after a motorcycle taxi driver was killed by an armoured police vehicle in Jakarta.
Chairman of Golkar party Bahlil Lahadalia was given the newly created role of coordinating minister for downstreaming and energy transition while retaining the energy portfolio, expanding his influence over Indonesia’s energy and natural-resource industries.
Analysts noted that Bahlil chairs Golkar, the largest party in Prabowo’s coalition, making him an important figure as Prabowo continues to balance the interests of the parties supporting his broad government.
His appointment also comes as Indonesia focuses on expanding its downstreaming industry.
Indonesia’s downstreaming policy bans exports of raw and unprocessed natural resources with the aim of boosting domestic processing and value-added industries. It covers eight sectors, including coal, minerals, crude oil and natural gas.
WHY NOW?
The latest shake-up comes less than three weeks after Prabowo sacked his finance minister on Sep 14, when Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa was replaced by his deputy Suahasil Nazara.
Talk of Purbaya’s removal had been circulating for some months given the perception of him as a polarising figure who attracted both praise and criticism for his brash and unfiltered style.
Analysts had previously told CNA that a widespread restructuring inside Indonesia’s finance ministry – which caused unhappiness among officials – and a public disagreement with sovereign wealth fund Danantara over the use of its profits were possible reasons prompting Prabowo to sack Purbaya after months of growing calls for his removal.
On why another major round of Cabinet changes followed suit shortly, Wawan said there could be different political and policy considerations for the latest round after Purbaya’s sacking.
But he also sees the reshuffles as part of a broader consolidation of presidential authority.
The uncertainty serves to remind ministers “who holds the power”, Wawan said.
Nicky Fahrizal, a political researcher from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies Indonesia think-tank, said that the timing of Prabowo’s largest reshuffle to date is significant as it marks a further shift away from the previous Jokowi administration.
“Two years is enough time for the transition. Now it is time to take full control,” Nicky said, describing the political message he believes Prabowo is sending through the reshuffle.
There is also Prabowo’s evolving relationship with Jokowi.
The former president recently revealed that he has been a member of the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), chaired by his son Kaesang Pangarep, since October 2025.
Jokowi, whose other son Gibran Rakabuming Raka is Indonesia’s vice president, has also become increasingly active in the party.
Analysts previously told CNA that his involvement could strengthen PSI ahead of the next presidential election in 2029 and give Jokowi’s family a more established political vehicle of its own.
Both Wawan and Nicky said that some of Thursday’s changes could be interpreted as Prabowo asserting greater independence from his predecessor, whom he had previously credited for helping him win the 2024 presidential election.
Wawan pointed particularly to Pratikno, who served in Jokowi’s government for a decade and was one of his closest aides.
Prabowo appeared to be sending a message that while Jokowi could continue his own political activities, “in my government, I am the one who decides”, Wawan said.
But Prabowo has not publicly positioned the reshuffle as a move against Jokowi, and several figures associated with the former president remain in government but in less prominent positions.
Listyo’s and Pratikno’s reassignments rather than outright removal illustrate the balancing act, said analysts.
Nicky said moving such figures to less strategic positions allows Prabowo to reduce their influence without causing an unnecessary political rupture with Jokowi.
“This is to maintain good relations,” he said.
“If they were simply dismissed, there would definitely be a bad rapport, bad communication,” Nicky said.
PORTFOLIO PRIORITIES
The portfolios Prabowo chose to change offer the strongest indication of his priorities, observers said.
Nearly two years into his presidency, Prabowo has had enough time to assess which officials he wants around him and which institutions he wants to be led by people he knows and trusts, said Hari Fitrianto, a political lecturer at Surabaya’s Airlangga University.
“I think the positions being reshuffled are those that are central to Prabowo’s focus, for example, those that concern political stability,” he said.
Among them are the police and domestic security, human development and social programmes, foreign policy, industry, resource downstreaming and energy.
Wawan from the University of Gadjah Mada singled out the coordinating ministry for human development and culture as especially important.
The ministry oversees numerous ministries and agencies responsible for basic public services, including health and education.
That gives its coordinating minister considerable influence over highly visible government programmes that directly could affect voters, Wawan said.
“The portfolio has very high potential to strengthen a president’s popularity because it coordinates ministries that interact directly with the people,” he said.
That makes it logical for Prabowo to want the ministry under Sugiono, 47, who has often been described as Prabowo’s ideological child, Wawan added.
However, the foreign ministry presents almost the reverse case.
Instead of replacing Sugiono with another political loyalist, Prabowo promoted Arrmanatha, widely known as Tata, from deputy foreign minister.
Wawan said the geopolitical environment made a career diplomat like Arrmanatha particularly suited to the job.
“In the current geopolitical situation … it is much better if it is handled by someone with a long diplomatic career,” he said.
Indonesia needs an experienced diplomatic face in international negotiations, while promoting someone from inside the foreign ministry could also help rebuild confidence within the institution, Wawan added.
Nicky from CSIS agreed, adding that the appointment indicated a change in Prabowo’s thinking.
“With the global geopolitical situation unsettled, the foreign ministry needed a technocrat, rather than an ideological ally or political loyalist,” said Nicky.
On Arrmanatha’s appointment, Hari from the University of Airlangga said that Prabowo appears to be differentiating between positions where political trust and control carry particular weight and those where specialised expertise and institutional credibility are harder to substitute.
Indonesia’s security is another priority for Prabowo, experts noted.
Dudung, a former army chief, now coordinates political and security affairs, while Suyudi takes control of the national police.
Wawan said Dudung and Suyudi’s appointments as coordinating minister for political and security affairs and police chief respectively could reflect the administration’s desire to respond more firmly to domestic political and security issues, including ongoing violence in Papua, as well as preparations for the 2029 electoral cycle.
Listyo had served as police chief for more than five years, as the 57-year-old was appointed in 2021 by then-president Jokowi.
“There could indeed be a need for renewal,” Wawan said, noting that periodic changes at the top of an institution such as the police could also help prevent entrenched internal cliques from developing.
TURNING TO INSIDERS
Another striking feature of the reshuffle is how many appointees were already inside Prabowo’s political or governmental institutions, observers said.
Of the five new ministers sworn in on Oct 1, only Golkar secretary-general Muhammad Sarmuji – appointed industry minister – is a new face in the Cabinet.
Rather than bringing in an entirely new team, Prabowo has largely rearranged existing pieces.
Wawan said this reflected the president’s desire to ensure key positions are occupied by people capable of supporting his agenda politically as well as implementing his programmes.
At the same time, Prabowo still needs to accommodate the parties and political networks supporting his broad government.
Nicky noted that party leaders, in particular, carry political weight, making their removal a different calculation compared to replacing a technocrat or non-party minister.
He cited the example of Bahlil, who was sworn in as a new coordinating minister on Thursday in addition to his existing portfolio overseeing resource downstreaming and energy transition.
His Golkar party is currently the largest in Prabowo’s coalition, with over 100 members of parliament.
Bahlil has been a member of the Indonesian Cabinet since October 2019, when Jokowi appointed him as investment minister.
Wawan said Bahlil’s political strength goes beyond his Jokowi connection to the Golkar party he chairs, as well as his links to business networks, civic organisations and his ability to represent eastern Indonesia as he was born in Maluku and grew up in Papua.
Prabowo is therefore placing trusted figures in several strategically important positions, but he is neither dismantling the coalition that helped bring him to power nor dispensing with technocrats, experts said.
However, whether that produces a more effective government remains to be seen.
Wawan said that personnel changes will ultimately mean little if they do not translate into stronger public and business confidence or better economic outcomes.
“No matter how many or how often these efforts are made, if the fundamental problems that concern the public are not answered, it will not help strengthen the president’s legitimacy,” he said.
“Ultimately, the real verdict will come from the market and support from the people”.
Source: CNA/ks(ao)
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