Commentary: The danger of newfound ‘strategic stability’ in US-China ties
Three months after President Donald Trump’s Beijing visit, the broad contours of a new phase in the US-China relationship are emerging, says veteran newspaper editor Han Fook Kwang.
US President Donald Trump participates in a friendship walk through Zhongnanhai Garden with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China, May 15, 2026. REUTERS/Evan Vucci/Pool
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SINGAPORE: When United States President Donald Trump met his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in May in Beijing, the visit was hailed as a success by both sides even though it was short on concrete results.
China agreed to buy 200 Boeing planes and at least US$17 billion worth of annual agricultural products. They were modest gains.
More significant was the strengthening of the personal relationship between leaders of two rival superpowers which had deep differences in many areas including trade, technology and political ideology.
Mr Trump praised Mr Xi as a “great leader” and friend, and the latter spared no effort in his welcome including visits to the Temple of Heaven and the grounds of Zhongnanhai.
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It culminated in their agreement that US-China relations should be based on “constructive strategic stability”, a phrase first used by Mr Xi on the first day of the visit and repeated by the White House in its subsequent readout of the meeting.
What does this mean in how the two sides resolve their differences? How does it help officials settle issues and make sure the relationship does not spiral out of control as it had in the past?
When third parties look at how the two behave towards each other, sometimes in not so friendly ways, how do they tell whether both are still operating within the agreed parameters or if they have been tossed out of the geopolitical window?
What does strategic stability look like?
WHAT HAS EMERGED SINCE BEIJING VISIT
It has been more than three months since and it is possible to discern the broad contours of this new phase in the relationship. By examining what has actually happened, one gets a better understanding than trying to do so conceptually.
It was also a topic of discussion at an annual meeting in Singapore between scholars from top American and Chinese institutions, with Singaporean participants acting as moderator and interlocutor.
As I listened to them at the 7th Trilateral Exchange between Singapore, the US and China convened by the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), which was held over two days this week, several features of this modus vivendi emerged more clearly, even if much of it remains uncertain.
First, optics and symbolism will continue to feature prominently. This is not surprising when the relationship is shaped and driven at the top and the two leaders are personally invested in it.
For Mr Trump, some might say he is all optics and about making a splash in the global news headlines. China under Mr Xi also demands the right stage to signal recognition of its rising power and its place in the world order.
Optics isn’t just about appearances and protocol. It is ultimately about demonstrating, in a visible and substantive way, respect for the other party.
One Chinese participant at the meeting pointed out the difference between the US and China whenever the two sides discuss whether to meet over some unresolved issue.
Americans, he said, saw negotiations as a way to obtain agreement on a particular matter. Never mind what happened before negotiating, the important objective was to negotiate to agree.
But for the Chinese, he noted, both sides should agree first and then negotiate. By this he meant to agree to be friendly and constructive. Otherwise, the Chinese will not agree to negotiate.
This was how China viewed the importance of optics in its working relationship with the US.
So, expect more meetings between Mr Xi and Mr Trump not to result in substantive achievements but to add to the overall feel-good sentiment.
It augurs well that they are likely to meet three more times this year, in September when Mr Xi makes a state visit to Washington, at the APEC meeting in Shenzhen in November and the G20 summit in Miami in December.
If both sides stick to the new playbook, more good vibes should emerge from these meetings.
Second, remove or reduce as much as possible the risk of events or issues that might destabilise the relationship and do irreparable damage to it.
On the American side, a participant said that the US wanted China out of the way as it pursues its foreign policy objectives in Venezuela, Cuba and Iran.
Will China play ball? A Chinese speaker did not address the issue directly but said that in this new phase, one guiding principle was “zhua da fang xiao”, a Chinese phrase meaning to not sweat over the small issues but consider the big picture.
The war in Iran may not be small potatoes for China but it looks like both countries are trying hard not to allow it to damage their ties. Even with the latest American offensive to tighten the economic noose on Iran, including on those who do business with it, the US has not singled out China as a major target.
Third, to lower expectations on what could be achieved and to focus narrowly on areas that are amenable to cooperation from the two sides.
For one American, this meant excluding many important areas that ought to be discussed between rival superpowers but which was futile because of the deep differences between the two sides.
There was little point trying to cooperate on issues concerning the security of the Indo-Pacific which the US had an enduring interest in and which would not change even with China’s growing power.
The participant also mentioned technology and all the issues to do with control of advanced chips and on AI-related matters that were no-go areas for negotiations.
What is left to negotiate on? Fentanyl was cited as an example and the issue of how to control the supply of the drug from China, which the two leaders discussed in May.
REAL DETENTE OR PHONEY PEACE
It was a sobering reality check on how limited the ambitions are.
Is this the new normal in US-China relations? Plenty of optics and emphasis placed on personal relationships, no rocking of the boat, and lowered expectations of what can be achieved from their cooperative efforts?
It might well be what strategic stability looks like.
The question is whether it can endure and lead to lasting peace and security for all, including the rest of the world.
There is a danger that, instead of laying the groundwork of a more lasting relationship between the two, it might deepen the divide.
Beneath the surface, both the US and China are working relentlessly to strengthen their capabilities and reduce their vulnerabilities.
For the US, it is about regaining its manufacturing prowess at home, building up its supply of critical resources including rare earth and maintaining its edge in advanced chips and AI-related technology.
As for China, it wants to be self-reliant in critical areas of its development and not be hostage to the US, to improve its capabilities in advanced technology and in innovation.
Is strategic stability merely the means for both sides to have more time to work on their capabilities, so as to have an edge against the other or will it lay the foundation for a more stable working relationship?
Is it real detente or a phoney peace?
It is too early to say and there are no clear answers, yet.
Han Fook Kwang was a veteran newspaper editor and is Senior Fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University.
Source: CNA/ch
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