analysis
US green card crackdown clouds Indian tech workers’ American dream
Four Indian IT giants are among eight tech firms suspended from a key US permanent residency programme. Analysts tell CNA the immediate business impact may be limited, but workers face greater uncertainty.
An advertising poster pasted on a shop at Dingucha village in Gandhinagar, India, Tuesday, Nov 12, 2024. Poster reads in Gujarati “Make your dream of going abroad come true”, on top and “Payment after visa”. (Photo: AP/Ajit Solanki)
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BENGALURU: The Trump administration on Thursday (Oct 8) suspended eight major technology companies from a key United States programme that allows employers to sponsor foreign workers for permanent residency, citing alleged abuse of the immigration system.
The companies include four Indian IT giants – Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, Wipro and HCLTech – as well as Microsoft, Adobe, Cognizant and Capgemini.
US Labor Secretary Keith Sonderling said authorities would stop accepting new applications and processing pending ones under the Permanent Labor Certification (PERM) programme.
Under PERM, employers must first demonstrate that qualified American workers are unavailable for the jobs, according to the US Department of Labor.
India’s Ministry of External Affairs said in a statement on Friday that the restrictions did not “advance the shared ambitions” of the two countries. It added that the move could affect eligible workers’ green card applications but not existing H-1B visa holders.
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Indian IT industry body NASSCOM stressed that the programme concerns permanent immigration and is distinct from the H-1B visa programme for temporary workers, which is unaffected by the suspension.
Analysts told CNA the immediate impact on Indian IT firms would be limited, but prolonged restrictions could raise staffing costs and disrupt workers’ plans to settle permanently in the US.
“I see this as a bigger talent retention concern than an immediate business disruption (for Indian IT firms),” said Achyuta Ghosh, executive research leader at analyst firm HFS Research.
LIMITED IMPACT, BUT HIGHER COSTS AHEAD
In a statement filed with the local stock exchange on Friday, TCS said that it had submitted fewer than 10 PERM applications over the past two years and did not expect the suspension to affect its workforce strategy or client engagements.
It reiterated its plans to hire 15,000 additional employees in the US over five years.
Ghosh said Indian IT firms would likely focus their US hiring on client-facing consulting, architecture and specialised engineering, while subcontractors in the country offered “more immediate flexibility”.
He expects companies to use more subcontractors and selectively hire locally in the US over the next six to 12 months, while reassessing how much US-based work can be shifted offshore.
Pareek Jain, CEO at EIIR Trend, a research firm that tracks the global engineering and IT services industry, estimated that hiring in the US was 25 to 50 per cent more expensive than sending Indian employees there, depending on the role.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR INDIAN TECH WORKERS
Sarbojit Mallick, chief business officer at recruitment platform Instahyre, said the biggest impact on Indian workers was the loss of a “predictable path to permanent residency” in the US, rather than immediate visa cancellations.
Ghosh of HFS Research expects any shift to be gradual.
“I don’t expect a mass return (to India) over the next six to 12 months,” he said, adding that prolonged uncertainty could gradually redirect experienced Indian tech workers towards opportunities at home and other global hubs.
Overseas postings have long helped Indian IT companies attract and retain talent despite relatively low entry-level salaries, said Jain of EIIR Trend.
“If the option of global (job) mobility is gone, it will be difficult for them to attract good talent (at home),” he added.
The companies may have to develop opportunities in other overseas markets instead, he said.
Ghosh said Singapore and the United Arab Emirates could attract some experienced Indian professionals, but their tech job markets were “considerably smaller” than India’s.
Mallick said that Singapore could attract experienced Indian professionals in AI, fintech and tech leadership, while Malaysia could benefit from talent in cloud, cybersecurity and engineering.
He said returning professionals should not assume that years of US-based work experience will translate into an equivalent job in India.
“India can absorb specialised talent, but not necessarily every returnee at comparable seniority and pay.”
Mallick said opportunities were strongest in global capability centres (GCCs), product engineering, AI infrastructure, cybersecurity and cloud computing.
The rapid adoption of AI is widening the divide between demand for specialists and generalist developers, Mallick said.
He cited industry data showing recruitment for AI and machine-learning roles rose 45 per cent in the financial year 2025-26, while overall IT hiring remained flat.
“Demand for specialists does not guarantee enough equivalent roles for generalist developers and traditional IT services professionals,” Mallick said.
Source: CNA/ss(cf)
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